THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 4.0N 137.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.8N 133.9E, APPROXIMATELY 160
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF TROUGHING WITH LIMITED,
DISORGANIZED, AND FRAGMENTED CONVECTION. A 170017Z AMSU-B 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A LARGE AREA WITH MOSTLY SHALLOW CONVECTION
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A WEAK LLCC. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS), BUT HAS MOVED INTO AN
AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-25 KNOTS). GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, HOWEVER, THEY ARE DIVIDED ON
THE TIMING AND DEGREE OF INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
NEAR 4.0N 137.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.8N 133.9E, APPROXIMATELY 160
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF TROUGHING WITH LIMITED,
DISORGANIZED, AND FRAGMENTED CONVECTION. A 170017Z AMSU-B 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A LARGE AREA WITH MOSTLY SHALLOW CONVECTION
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A WEAK LLCC. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS), BUT HAS MOVED INTO AN
AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-25 KNOTS). GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, HOWEVER, THEY ARE DIVIDED ON
THE TIMING AND DEGREE OF INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
