Texas Winter 2017-2018

[perk]

I know some on here said 1989 was a possible analog for this winter and they nailed it. Over here in Gonzales in SE LA we made it down to a record of 15, along with Baton Rouge and other surrounding cities. Coldest since you guessed it, December of 1989. We had freezing rain in the afternoon then sleet from 5 til around 11. Entire interstate system is shutdown from Lafayette to New Orleans to slidell.

If memory serve me right the 1989 event lasted a little longer,but a good analog.

[aggiecutter]

6 degrees this morning in Texarkana.

[Snowman67]

It's too bad the whole winter couldn't be like today and yesterday, isn't it? After a brief warm-up over the next week, models are indicating more building cold all across Canada by the end of the month. I think I'll go catch some rays...

Why do I feel like you are Mayhem from the recent Allstate commercial. Acting like you have turned over a new leaf, only to return to your true (heat miser) nature soon.....

[EnnisTx]

3 here. Hot and cold water lines to the washing machine are froze up. There shouldn't be a ton of pressure on those lines so hopefully they don't bust. However, they are copper..

That's not good! They should have the same pressure as the rest of your home.

I'd watch them. I had a hose burst while I was at work in the middle of the summer and it flooded my house and chewed a hole thru the wall into the garage from the pressure.

[Hurricane_Apu]

Lafayette looks (and feels) like Hoth this morning. Wind chills right around zero...

[Yukon Cornelius]

3 here. Hot and cold water lines to the washing machine are froze up. There shouldn't be a ton of pressure on those lines so hopefully they don't bust. However, they are copper..

That's not good! They should have the same pressure as the rest of your home.

I'd watch them. I had a hose burst while I was at work in the middle of the summer and it flooded my house and chewed a hole thru the wall into the garage from the pressure.

Once we get above freezing today, if we do, I'm going to see if the wife can go hang around the house and keep an eye on it. This is the 4th time they've froze and luckily no busts yet. Its just a small section that freezes behind an inaccessible wall that I'm guessing has little insulation. Hopefully we will be fine again this time.

[dhweather]

FWD forecasting 6 degrees tonight for Heath. I don't see it getting below 10, but realistically, it is freaking cold either way.

Bottomed out at 11.9 - perfect bike riding weather for wxman57!

[CaptinCrunch]

When you set a record for longest period between freezes, you get pay back....lol

January 2017

5 freezes total
1 day not getting above freezing (6th)
last freeze of the year was on the 8th (20)
coldest temp, 14 on the 7th.
The month ended +5.3 above the monthly mean.

January 2018 thru the 16th

3 days not getting above freezing 1st, 2nd, & 16th (todays not over... )
11 freezes so far
coldest temp recorded today 13 @ 2am DFW Airport (Single digits in many of the outline areas, first time since 2011)
current monthly mean -4.5

[Portastorm]

I guess what I find most amazing about this cold outbreak for Texas is that this all happened with a positive NAO and AO. Ntxw mentioned this the other day. I never would have guessed we could see such weather with those indices showing as they are. Very interesting.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Winter Cancel!

Only because once people start posting cancels, things ramp up again. I want to keep it going until the end of February, maybe March. Impressive winter so far with an early December snow, and some sleet yesterday. Mixed in with a good New Years cold snap and no real blow torches in between (IE one day cold the next day pushing 90 like last "winter")

I bottomed out at 28 at my home. A tad warmer than projected, but went colder in the day yesterday than was forecasted. I think we hit 32 around 11 AM.

I still think Sybil, aka WXman57 has something up his sleeve to get us all back. Summer 2011??? I'll go for that because at least it proved it could eat up a tropical system and we can do without any sort of tropical system for the foreseeable future around here and up the coast for that matter.

[bubba hotep]

It's too bad the whole winter couldn't be like today and yesterday, isn't it? After a brief warm-up over the next week, models are indicating more building cold all across Canada by the end of the month. I think I'll go catch some rays...

Yep, pretty good agreement across the ensembles, 06z GEFS looks a lot like the 00z EPS at D15



We may not have to wait that long, the models didn't catch onto this current cold dump until about 7 days out. The Pacific jet doesn't look to be as strong as last week and that might make it harder to get another huge wave break popping a big ridge in WCAN.

[bubba hotep]

Phase 6/7/8 are all supportive of cold in Jan & Feb. Models have it going into 6 but will it continue to roll?

[CaptinCrunch]

Phase 6/7/8 are all supportive of cold in Jan & Feb. Models have it going into 6 but will it continue to roll?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... m_full.gif

East based Nina, I think our chances are good that it does.

[Rgv20]

Some of the Short Range and Global model indicate the potential for a few showers later this afternoon/evening on into the overnight. Temperatures are forecast to be in the mid to low 30s during that time...perhaps another round of wintry weather down here?

12zRGEM has some wintry weather Thursday morning...

[wxman57]

I guess what I find most amazing about this cold outbreak for Texas is that this all happened with a positive NAO and AO. Ntxw mentioned this the other day. I never would have guessed we could see such weather with those indices showing as they are. Very interesting.

I've been telling you since last winter that this winter would be very cold and very icy. Go back and find my posts from last summer. It should be no surprise that it is cold and icy. I might add, it wasn't easy for me to bring the Arctic air so far south given that La Nina winters are typically mild and dry here in Texas.

[bubba hotep]

Phase 6/7/8 are all supportive of cold in Jan & Feb. Models have it going into 6 but will it continue to roll?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... m_full.gif

East based Nina, I think our chances are good that it does.

The cold anomalies are not that expansive, there is a lot of warm water out there. This is helping maintain convection more so than would be expected during sone other Nina configurations. The QBO switch is also more favorable for convection vs the past couple of years.

[CaptinCrunch]

I guess what I find most amazing about this cold outbreak for Texas is that this all happened with a positive NAO and AO. Ntxw mentioned this the other day. I never would have guessed we could see such weather with those indices showing as they are. Very interesting.

I've been telling you since last summer that this winter would be very cold and very icy. Go back and find my posts from last summer. It should be no surprise that it is cold and icy. I might add, it wasn't easy for me to bring the Arctic air so far south given that La Nina winters are typically mild and dry here in Texas.

You keep this up and you just might get a cookie at the end of February!

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

I guess what I find most amazing about this cold outbreak for Texas is that this all happened with a positive NAO and AO. Ntxw mentioned this the other day. I never would have guessed we could see such weather with those indices showing as they are. Very interesting.

I've been telling you since last winter that this winter would be very cold and very icy. Go back and find my posts from last summer. It should be no surprise that it is cold and icy. I might add, it wasn't easy for me to bring the Arctic air so far south given that La Nina winters are typically mild and dry here in Texas.

What are you cooking up for this summer when you come back to your former self. I will take a dry/hot summer vs humid/hot if you can order it? Just some good spring rains to get the watering holes in the Hill Country in good supply before you flip the switch , please. Especially Lake Travis and the Frio.

[Ntxw]

Phase 6/7/8 are all supportive of cold in Jan & Feb. Models have it going into 6 but will it continue to roll?

East based Nina, I think our chances are good that it does.

The cold anomalies are not that expansive, there is a lot of warm water out there. This is helping maintain convection more so than would be expected during sone other Nina configurations. The QBO switch is also more favorable for convection vs the past couple of years.

You also don't see the MJO with amplitude and chugging along during ENSO events. In a true winter of sort the MJO would loop and hover the warm phases thus no real MJO and just background state. We've seen sig MJO movement this winter.

[gboudx]

I guess what I find most amazing about this cold outbreak for Texas is that this all happened with a positive NAO and AO. Ntxw mentioned this the other day. I never would have guessed we could see such weather with those indices showing as they are. Very interesting.

I've been telling you since last winter that this winter would be very cold and very icy. Go back and find my posts from last summer. It should be no surprise that it is cold and icy. I might add, it wasn't easy for me to bring the Arctic air so far south given that La Nina winters are typically mild and dry here in Texas.

I know you're Cajun with a good Cajun last name. What sort of gris-gris are you using on the weather? It's amazing, but this sort of gris-gris is usually reserved for only the most powerful Cajun elders.