SIO: BERGUITTA - Post-Tropical

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

past 24hr



GFS

[Yellow Evan]

Not sure why MFR has this at 60 knots when it has a cleared out eye.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

06S BERGUITTA 180115 0600 17.6S 63.1E SHEM 75 967

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Not sure why MFR has this at 60 knots when it has a cleared out eye.

Do you have a link to that sat. Noaa/cimss floater don't.

[Yellow Evan]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 150545.jpg

Of course, neither JTWC, SAB, or MFR can't seem to be getting Dvorak right. Should be T5.5 without constraints,T5.0 with them.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/products/storms/2018SH06/4KMSRBDC/2018SH06_4KMSRBDC_201801150545.jpg

Of course, neither JTWC, SAB, or MFR can't seem to be getting Dvorak right. Should be T5.5 without constraints,T5.0 with them.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

Current satellite image, updating every 15 minutes: https://kachelmannwetter.com/de/sat/0014640a99481bb179116007d3b3b9a1/satellit-hd-15min/20180115-0830z.html

[euro6208]

WTXS31 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 17.8S 63.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 63.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 17.8S 62.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 17.9S 61.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 18.2S 60.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 18.7S 59.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 20.8S 56.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 23.8S 53.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 27.9S 51.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 63.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 362 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT
01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS INCREASINGLY WELL
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION, WITH A 10 NM WIDE EYE FEATURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE NEARLY STATIONARY LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE
FEATURE VISIBLE IN MULTI-SPECTRAL IMAGERY. A TIGHT HOOK FEATURE
OBSERVED IN THE 150525Z 89 GHZ METOP-B AMSU SSMIS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 75 KNOTS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.5 TO T5.0 (77 TO 90
KNOTS), FROM PGTW AND KNES RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ALSO SUPPORTED BY A MULTI-PLATFORM SATELLITE WIND ANALYSIS ESTIMATE
OF 75 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT TC 06S REMAINS IN
AN AREA FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND WARM (28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THEY SYSTEM HAS GOOD
EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW WITH THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
TAPPING INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. TC 06S IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS DUE TO WEAK AND
COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
SOUTH, AND ANOTHER STR BUILDING OVER EASTERN MADAGASCAR. AFTER TAU
36, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO A
WEAKNESS BEGINS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE TWO SUB-TROPICAL RIDGES.
AROUND TAU 48, THE STR LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST BEGINS TO BUILD AND
TAKES OVER AS THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST. THE QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) MOTION AND FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 36 AND THE SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY REACH
A PEAK OF 105 KNOTS AROUND TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS VWS INCREASES AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DECREASE. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST
AFTER A PERIOD OF QUASI STATIONARY MOTION. DUE TO VARIATIONS IN THE
TIME AND SHARPNESS OF THE TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST THERE IS A FAIRLY
LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODEL FORECAST TRACK. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS
PLACED ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE MULTI- MODEL CONSENSUS. DUE TO THE
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE GUIDANCE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW
CONFIDENCE IN JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 150600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z, 152100Z, 160300Z
AND 160900Z.//
NNNN

[doomhaMwx]

Impressive VIIRS satellite image of Cyclone Berguitta quickly strengthening over the SW Indian Ocean today.

Day/Night DNB Imagery VIIRS
01-15-2018 8:44am UTC

[doomhaMwx]

12Z JTWC intensity estimate is 90kts Cat 2.

06S BERGUITTA 180115 1200 18.0S 63.1E SHEM 90 964



More like a Cat 3.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

WTIO20-FMEE: RSMC La Reunion Cyclone Warning (Area VIII)

15/1814 (012) INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BERGUITTA) 940 HPA 18.2訕 62.6蚩
15/1241 (011) INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BERGUITTA) 940 HPA 17.9訕 63.0蚩
15/1233 (001) INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BERGUITTA) 940 HPA 17.9訕 63.0蚩
15/0602 (010) SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BERGUITTA) 980 HPA 17.8訕 63.2蚩
15/0006 (009) SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BERGUITTA) 983 HPA 17.9訕
10/m

its only 1hr past midnight 16th Reunion time. Considering the RI good job.
http://gwydir.demon.co.uk/advisories/indexfull.htm

thanks for upto date sat links yellow and Imran_doomhaMwx

[cycloneye]

JTWC upgrades to cat 3 (100 Kts)

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Jason Nicholls
‏

@jnmet
9h9 hours ago

Metro-France has upgraded #Berguitta to an intense tropical cyclone (category 3 hurricane equivalent. Storm will batter #Mauritius & #LaReunion with destructive winds and flooding rains Tuesday night or Wednesday into Thursday.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

WTIO20 FMEE 160013 RRA
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 16/01/2018
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 013/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 16/01/2018 AT 0000 UTC.
PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BERGUITTA) 940 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.2 S / 61.9 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
200 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/16 AT 12 UTC:
18.4 S / 60.8 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/01/17 AT 00 UTC:
18.8 S / 59.7 E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

[doomhaMwx]

A much weaker Berguitta is passing near/over Mauritius island at the moment. A minimal Category 1 Cyclone by the JTWC, while the Meteo France La Reunion has it as a Severe Tropical Storm.