2018 WPAC Season

[doomhaMwx]

From the Philippines, I greet everyone a HAPPY NEW YEAR!
Let's all hope for the best this 2018.

[mrbagyo]

Happy New Year to everyone.

2018 just begun but looks like it's about to generate a new invest. I'm not expecting it to develop though. It's painfully close to the equator AGAIN. Haha

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

GFS has a couple circulations moving through Micronesia but none of them develops significantly into a TC.

[euro6208]

January is usually more active than February and March, the two slowest months in the WPAC historically.

[euro6208]

Another Philippine storm?

[euro6208]

GFS had a similiar scenario but somewhat weaker in the latest run.

[euro6208]

GFS for the past few runs has multiple systems crossing the Southern Philippines and into Vietnam as a TC although the runs varies.

[1900hurricane]

While we wait for the 2018 Typhoon Season to kick into gear, feel free to check out the reanalysis I did on the 1979 Typhoon Season, which I have summarized in a recent blog entry.

Reanalyzing the Pacific Typhoon Seasons: 1979

[euro6208]

I doubt it plus climatology is against it so we'll see if future runs show this.

[euro6208]

Well well the EURO has went into GFS's route of a potential TC near the end of the month and into next month as a somewhat robust MJO signal moves through.

EURO is weak while GFS is up and down with intensity.

Philippines again?

[euro6208]

EURO drops any sort of development but GFS still sensing some tropical mischief mid to long range.

[euro6208]

06Z even more notorious than 00Z. Of course it's way out there.

[1900hurricane]

Just as a head's up, JTWC is now at a slightly different website. It's thrown me off for the past couple of days, so hopefully by posting the link, I can help y'all from being as confused as I was.

http://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/

[euro6208]

GFS's solution for a Valentine Day TC is coming into fruition.

93W THREAD

[xtyphooncyclonex]

GFS has been hinting on something for the past few runs in the long-range

[euro6208]

Indeed. GFS is very notorious the last 3 runs showing a strong typhoon hitting the Philippines.

[euro6208]

Just as a head's up, JTWC is now at a slightly different website. It's thrown me off for the past couple of days, so hopefully by posting the link, I can help y'all from being as confused as I was.

http://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/

The most followed and popular agency in the world. JTWC follows 1 minute average winds than no other.

[euro6208]

GFS sensing formation around the 22nd.

[1900hurricane]

This is getting a little fringy long range, but ensemble means are showing some lower surface pressures around the day 10 timeframe. Overall agreement between GEFS and EPS is actually pretty good considering the range, and it's possible we could squeeze out another early season storm, especially if Madden-Julian hangs out in phase 7 for a little while longer.