Texas Winter 2017-2018

[bubba hotep]

Apparently no one has seen the Longer Range ECMWF EPS centered on February 4th. Brrrr

Details please lol

[Cpv17]

Dang, that looks really good!

[Haris]

Looks like the GFS is getting a bit carried away with the upcoming pattern! Check out 00z! LOL.

[Brent]

GFS has a winter storm on February 2nd

mostly south of Dallas it appears

[Lagreeneyes03]

GFS has a winter storm on February 2nd

mostly south of Dallas it appears

Of course it is..........

[Cpv17]

Just want to leave this here

[wxman57]

These long-range charts should be no big surprise. I told you I'm working on a Texas winter weather event for mid-February.

[orangeblood]

Yep, some MAJOR cross-polar flow showing up on the long range models!! Huge chunks of that record-breaking Siberian air are funneling directly over to our side of the world

[bubba hotep]

Eastern areas upgraded up "Slight"

[bubba hotep]

This includes a TOR 5%

[aggiecutter]

6 degrees and 3" of snow to severe weather in just 5 days.

[bubba hotep]

Models are really wanting to amp up the MJO late in the cycle

[Tireman4]

These long-range charts should be no big surprise. I told you I'm working on a Texas winter weather event for mid-February.

How about the whole state, sir?

[Portastorm]

Let's see ...

Cross-polar flow: check

Cold trough over the middle of the CONUS: check

Upper level energy to the southwest of Texas: check

What's not to like here?!

[gpsnowman]

Someone correct me if I am wrong, but does that map have a McFarland look to it? I see a slight backwards "S" with Pacific ridging and the central trough.

[orangeblood]

:uarrow: Someone correct me if I am wrong, but does that map have a McFarland look to it? I see a slight backwards "S" with Pacific ridging and the central trough.

Not quite yet, you need that northeast pacific ridge axis to poke into northwestern Canada while the trough axis stays back over the southwest...the potential is there that's for sure!

[gpsnowman]

:uarrow: Someone correct me if I am wrong, but does that map have a McFarland look to it? I see a slight backwards "S" with Pacific ridging and the central trough.

Not quite yet, you need that northeast pacific ridge axis to poke into northwestern Canada while the trough axis stays back over the southwest...the potential is there that's for sure!

I see what you mean. Thanks orangeblood.

[cheezyWXguy]

HRRR is trending slightly further west with convective initiation today. Will be interesting to see if the spc reflects that in their next update

[Sambucol]

HRRR is trending slightly further west with convective initiation today. Will be interesting to see if the spc reflects that in their next update

Is that good for Texas?

[dhweather]

Of course we know that models at 384 hours are for entertainment purposes only.

That said, the 12Z GFS at 384, Incredible cold all the way down to SoCal. To put this in perspective, all time record low in LA is 28, set in 2013 and 1949.

Meanwhile, the Metroplex checks in around 70.