Texas Winter 2017-2018

[TeamPlayersBlue]

All up to the MJO and where the forcing is. The cold is going to be up there. Just need something to dislodge it.

That storm for middle next week just popped up on the 0z Euro. Were going to need it in CO! Promise to send pics!

[Ntxw]

North America looks quite cold on the Euro

[orangeblood]

North America looks quite cold on the Euro

Sure does, The Siberian/Arctic HP extends the entire continent and beyond All about trajectory though, need a favorable 500mb pattern and we're in business. If that S/W coming into the Pacific NW at the end of the Euro 12z run can dive down along the west coast (instead of the inner mountain west), things are going to get very interesting around here

Euro Control run could be quite interesting!!

[gatorcane]

Wow both GFS and Euro showing a massive trough digging into the Central US by hour 240 with plenty of cold, artic air plunging southeast. Looks like the models might be detecting yet another arctic outbreak deep into the US in the long-range.

[Ntxw]

Mentioned a few times to watch the depth and quality of cold trends on models this week. That is the first step. I would not focus on trajectory yet as that is well outside of skill range. We likely won't even have a real clue until end of the weekend.

But this is frigid for the whole continent.

[wxman22]

Euro even shows some post frontal light snow across portions of south central and southeast Texas lol,maybe the start of a trend hopefully..

[gto67]

Today's Daily Update from Joe Bastardi on Weartherbell helped me better understand the MJO. Thanks everyone for teaching me about the weather.

[South Texas Storms]

The 12z Euro Ensemble and control run look very cold in the long range. Some of the coldest signals I've seen in an ensemble mean forecast for 300 hours.

[wxman57]

Cross-Polar flow setting up on the Euro at 10-days. Winter returns to Texas in February.

[Rgv20]

The 12z Euro Ensemble and control run look very cold in the long range. Some of the coldest signals I've seen in an ensemble mean forecast for 300 hours.

Of all my years following the models I think I have never seen such a cold signal on an ensemble mean 10+ days out

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Today's Daily Update from Joe Bastardi on Weartherbell helped me better understand the MJO. Thanks everyone for teaching me about the weather.

He did, he makes me want to pull my hair out with his constant climate change chatter. I even agree with him, but it still kills me.

[Tireman4]

Cross-Polar flow setting up on the Euro at 10-days. Winter returns to Texas in February.

Here.....we......go......

[Cpv17]

Looks like a big step in the right direction today.

[orangeblood]

The 12z Euro Ensemble and control run look very cold in the long range. Some of the coldest signals I've seen in an ensemble mean forecast for 300 hours.

The Ensembles are very hesitant to bring it south though...usually that type extreme cold will head south eventually but the location of the PV (northern Hudson Bay) does give me pause as to where this cold is heading. Still missing the Greenland Block to force the PV further south, without it the risk could be trajectory towards Eastern Canada. Hopefully the extreme negative WPO/EPO overwhelm

[northjaxpro]

Yeah indications that I am noticing is that we look to be returning back to similar how this January started. The coldest air on the globe looks to be locked completely over the North America Continent as we begin February. What makes this even more interesting is that possibly for the first time this winter, the NAO may begin to tank entering into February and combined with a +PNA, we just may see the coldest weather yet over the Central and Eastern CONUS in the coming weeks.

[Ralph's Weather]

The Canadian ensemble mean looks amazing beginning Feb 1st or so. Pacific ridging up through Alaska and on into Siberia plus a mean trough centered over the Rockies. This run does not show much precip in that period, but that patter could well deliver a big winter storm at some point.

[hamburgerman7070]

The 12z Euro Ensemble and control run look very cold in the long range. Some of the coldest signals I've seen in an ensemble mean forecast for 300 hours.

The Ensembles are very hesitant to bring it south though...usually that type extreme cold will head south eventually but the location of the PV (northern Hudson Bay) does give me pause as to where this cold is heading. Still missing the Greenland Block to force the PV further south, without it the risk could be trajectory towards Eastern Canada. Hopefully the extreme negative WPO/EPO overwhelm

Orangeblood, the reality is its fixing to get cold but should be further west due to PNA being negative for a little while. I think that's more ideal, even for us imo

[hamburgerman7070]

:uarrow:

Yeah indications that I am noticing is that we look to be returning back to similar how this January started. The coldest air on the globe looks to be locked completely over the North America Continent as we begin February. What makes this even more interesting is that possibly for the first time this winter, the NAO may begin to tank entering into February and combined with a +PNA, we just may see the coldest weather yet over the Central and Eastern CONUS in the coming weeks.

Northjaxpro, the nao on gfs ens look to stay predominantly positive unless the euro ensembles have trended negative

[Ralph's Weather]

:uarrow:

Yeah indications that I am noticing is that we look to be returning back to similar how this January started. The coldest air on the globe looks to be locked completely over the North America Continent as we begin February. What makes this even more interesting is that possibly for the first time this winter, the NAO may begin to tank entering into February and combined with a +PNA, we just may see the coldest weather yet over the Central and Eastern CONUS in the coming weeks.

Northjaxpro, the nao on gfs ens look to stay predominantly positive unless the euro ensembles have trended negative

I am seeing a continuation of +NAO also. I think most all of us would benefit from a -NAO in this pattern to clog things up a bit so we could get a consolidated storm out of this.

[orangeblood]

Well the Nat Gas market is on the Arctic Train, up over 10% today