Texas Winter 2017-2018

[northjaxpro]

:uarrow:

Yeah indications that I am noticing is that we look to be returning back to similar how this January started. The coldest air on the globe looks to be locked completely over the North America Continent as we begin February. What makes this even more interesting is that possibly for the first time this winter, the NAO may begin to tank entering into February and combined with a +PNA, we just may see the coldest weather yet over the Central and Eastern CONUS in the coming weeks.

Northjaxpro, the nao on gfs ens look to stay predominantly positive unless the euro ensembles have trended negative

I am seeing a continuation of +NAO also. I think most all of us would benefit from a -NAO in this pattern to clog things up a bit so we could get a consolidated storm out of this.

EURO ensembles are hinting negative a bit based on what I saw earlier today.

[Ntxw]

The 12z Euro Ensemble and control run look very cold in the long range. Some of the coldest signals I've seen in an ensemble mean forecast for 300 hours.

The Ensembles are very hesitant to bring it south though...usually that type extreme cold will head south eventually but the location of the PV (northern Hudson Bay) does give me pause as to where this cold is heading. Still missing the Greenland Block to force the PV further south, without it the risk could be trajectory towards Eastern Canada. Hopefully the extreme negative WPO/EPO overwhelm

Think it will overwhelm. We don't want core of the cold anyway, suppression depression. Just give us a SW shortwave and fringes of cold is good enough.

We do need the -AO to stick for storms. Also think the coldest core may come early in period sharp hit, persistent chill and stormy might be second half of Feb

[Haris]

From what I have seen:

The Euro and GFS (though not agreeing on timing specifically) show a very strong Arctic front in Early Feb.
The EPS shows that too.
So cold will come back.

The main issue in my opinion is PRECIP. I don't see a really wet pattern so this could be a useless cold outbreak for us but of course, I could be 100% wrong in the end result

[Snowman67]

Cross-Polar flow setting up on the Euro at 10-days. Winter returns to Texas in February.

For any other old timers on the board - Does EF Hutton come to mind when Weatherman 57 posts?

[Brent]

The 12z Euro Ensemble and control run look very cold in the long range. Some of the coldest signals I've seen in an ensemble mean forecast for 300 hours.

The Ensembles are very hesitant to bring it south though...usually that type extreme cold will head south eventually but the location of the PV (northern Hudson Bay) does give me pause as to where this cold is heading. Still missing the Greenland Block to force the PV further south, without it the risk could be trajectory towards Eastern Canada. Hopefully the extreme negative WPO/EPO overwhelm

Think it will overwhelm. We don't want core of the cold anyway, suppression depression. Just give us a SW shortwave and fringes of cold is good enough.

We do need the -AO to stick for storms. Also think the coldest core may come early in period sharp hit, persistent chill and stormy might be second half of Feb

Yeah if this winter so far has proven anything in North Texas its that we dont need brutal record cold...I'd rather take my chances on borderline cold most of our snowstorms happen then anyway

The cold is too big and then you get another storm on the coast while were high and dry

[EnnisTx]

The Ensembles are very hesitant to bring it south though...usually that type extreme cold will head south eventually but the location of the PV (northern Hudson Bay) does give me pause as to where this cold is heading. Still missing the Greenland Block to force the PV further south, without it the risk could be trajectory towards Eastern Canada. Hopefully the extreme negative WPO/EPO overwhelm

Think it will overwhelm. We don't want core of the cold anyway, suppression depression. Just give us a SW shortwave and fringes of cold is good enough.

We do need the -AO to stick for storms. Also think the coldest core may come early in period sharp hit, persistent chill and stormy might be second half of Feb

Yeah if this winter so far has proven anything in North Texas its that we dont need brutal record cold...I'd rather take my chances on borderline cold most of our snowstorms happen then anyway

The cold is too big and then you get another storm on the coast while were high and dry

Yep and I'm tired of watching them have all the fun and gloat!!!!

[Ntxw]

The 12z Euro Ensemble and control run look very cold in the long range. Some of the coldest signals I've seen in an ensemble mean forecast for 300 hours.

I don't recall such an expansive mass of cold anomalies across North America on modern guidance. When the signal is as clear for a cluster like that, usually means some kind of record shot somewhere. As cold as the early Feb shot may be, there could be more down the pipe as it settles across the continent.

Edit: The closest resemblance (modern) that I see might have that kind of cold is 2011 Feb in Canada

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The 12z Euro Ensemble and control run look very cold in the long range. Some of the coldest signals I've seen in an ensemble mean forecast for 300 hours.

I don't recall such an expansive mass of cold anomalies across North America on modern guidance. When the signal is as clear for a cluster like that, usually means some kind of record shot somewhere. As cold as the early Feb shot may be, there could be more down the pipe as it settles across the continent.

Edit: The closest resemblance (modern) that I see might have that kind of cold is 2011 Feb in Canada

That cold blast, we saw that one coming for like a month lol.

[Ntxw]

The 12z Euro Ensemble and control run look very cold in the long range. Some of the coldest signals I've seen in an ensemble mean forecast for 300 hours.

I don't recall such an expansive mass of cold anomalies across North America on modern guidance. When the signal is as clear for a cluster like that, usually means some kind of record shot somewhere. As cold as the early Feb shot may be, there could be more down the pipe as it settles across the continent.

Edit: The closest resemblance (modern) that I see might have that kind of cold is 2011 Feb in Canada

That cold blast, we saw that one coming for like a month lol.

We've seen this one coming for awhile now too! Even wxman57 is on his heels about this one

[TeamPlayersBlue]

End of 18z is fun to look at. Cross polar flow, straight out of Siberia.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I’m giddy for record cold

[gpsnowman]

I’m giddy for record cold

Giddy up. I am ready for some record cold and record snow. Damn I miss moisture. The stars will align, make that the indices will align, for a blizzard in Texas in Feb. I hope.

[bubba hotep]

The 12z Euro Ensemble and control run look very cold in the long range. Some of the coldest signals I've seen in an ensemble mean forecast for 300 hours.

I don't recall such an expansive mass of cold anomalies across North America on modern guidance. When the signal is as clear for a cluster like that, usually means some kind of record shot somewhere. As cold as the early Feb shot may be, there could be more down the pipe as it settles across the continent.

Edit: The closest resemblance (modern) that I see might have that kind of cold is 2011 Feb in Canada

If the MJO continues on into P1/2 then the analogs would argue for continued cold into March that steadily shifted West. This could be a very cold 4 to 5 week stretch and some areas have already seen the coldest start to the year on record.

[Ntxw]

Speaking of MJO, the SOI is very positive right now. But it's looking like a nosedive negative soon based on Tahiti pressures lowering. The MJO pulse is for real

[boca]

The 18z GFS at the 252 hour has snow in Central and Southern Florida, I know that will never happen but quite entertaining.

[Sambucol]

We've seen this one coming for awhile now too! Even wxman57 is on his heels about this one

What’s the timing of arrival for Texas for this cold? Thanks.

[Ntxw]

We've seen this one coming for awhile now too! Even wxman57 is on his heels about this one

What’s the timing of arrival for Texas for this cold? Thanks.

Once the Calendar flips to Feb. Exact dates not sure yet, timing is still variable between guidance. We'll have a better idea by weekend.

[Ntxw]

For starters, pretty cool to look at mslp in the north Pacific. Particularly keep your eyes on the cyclones in the Sea of Okhotsk (Kamchatka and west) and how it influences downstream mslp in North America.

[TheProfessor]

I never should have looked at the 0z GFS (For me in Ohio)

[Brent]

Not much cold on the 0z GFS

Is a big fantasy land heavy rain however

Check out the massive ridge in the east that even Texas gets in on at 384 hours