Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Haris]

WHy!!! ????

Significant cold

[South Texas Storms]

WHy!!! ????

Significant cold

Eh...it isn't that cold. Quite a bit warmer than our last arctic outbreak. And no frozen precipitation either. I'm not excited about the run so far.

[Haris]

WHy!!! ????

Significant cold

Eh...it isn't that cold. Quite a bit warmer than our last arctic outbreak. And no frozen precipitation either. I'm not excited about the run so far.

Oh no, not the front of friday. I am talking about the front on the 5th! -20s up N !

[Haris]

Significant cold

Eh...it isn't that cold. Quite a bit warmer than our last arctic outbreak. And no frozen precipitation either. I'm not excited about the run so far.

Oh no, not the front of friday. I am talking about the front on the 5th! -20s up N !

Actually never mind. Lol. Misses TX . Only 32 here. SMH

[Brent]

Yawn

CMC has -30's in Illinois at day 10... close to the state record.

and a bigger front does move in then

[hamburgerman7070]

South Texas storms, have a question. Why isn't the trough further west with a -pna, -epo, and -ao? Do u think the models haven't latched on quite yet with the pattern in showing that?

[South Texas Storms]

South Texas storms, have a question. Why isn't the trough further west with a -pna, -epo, and -ao? Do u think the models haven't latched on quite yet with the pattern in showing that?

Yeah I think a trough located farther west is still on the table, especially like the 12z Euro showed. Some of the models might be a bit too progressive with the pattern, especially the operational GFS.

[hamburgerman7070]

South Texas storms, have a question. Why isn't the trough further west with a -pna, -epo, and -ao? Do u think the models haven't latched on quite yet with the pattern in showing that?

Yeah I think a trough located farther west is still on the table, especially like the 12z Euro showed. Some of the models might be a bit too progressive with the pattern, especially the operational GFS.

A -PNA would put trough further west I believe. Kinda interesting to me.

[Cpv17]

The biggest thing today that I took away from the models is that they want to hang this cold up north and not push it south. I find that hard to believe.

[Brent]

Not much to report on the 0z Euro

I also find it hard to believe the cold would stay bottled up north. Doesn't fit how the winter has been so far

[South Texas Storms]

Long range 6z GFS shows a winter storm impacting much of the northern half of TX around February 7.

[gpsnowman]

Not a high below 50 on the NBC5 10 day forecast. A long way to go till winter returns it seems.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Not a high below 50 on the NBC5 10 day forecast. A long way to go till winter returns it seems.

The big cold is more than 10 days away and always has been.

[WinterMax]

GFS bringing North Louisiana 14" of snow !! Hahah, yeah right !!

[gpsnowman]

Not a high below 50 on the NBC5 10 day forecast. A long way to go till winter returns it seems.

The big cold is more than 10 days away and always has been.

True but all of the 40's DFW had for next week are gone. My point is that the long awaited pattern change seems like it is taking forever considering we have been discussing now for many days. Still 10 days out, guess I am just anxious. Gotta get a snowstorm here or I might lose it.

[wxman57]

I told you guys - February 16th. Remain calm.

[orangeblood]

Not a high below 50 on the NBC5 10 day forecast. A long way to go till winter returns it seems.

As we've been discussing repeatedly on here....don't get caught up in the model temp output past 5-6 days, models typically have trouble handling west-east flow with a -EPO push of low-level arctic cold. There are -30 to -35 deg C temps barreling south into Montana early next weekend, very difficult to believe that Arctic front won't make it to the gulf coast. A great setup appears to be coming into place for Feb and the battle-zone you want to see is right over our heads, from Texas to New England

[Ntxw]

For example GFS now has low to mid 40s for Friday after front. You can shave a good 5-10F off it based on its seasonal skill

P.S. I don't put much money on tv forecasts, they are the last to catch on

[gpsnowman]

:uarrow: For example GFS now has low to mid 40s for Friday after front. You can shave a good 5-10F off it based on its seasonal skill

P.S. I don't put much money on tv forecasts, they are the last to catch on

Yeah that's usually the case, playing catch up. TV mets tend to downplay and longer range stuff and concentrate on a 3 to 5 day period anyway. And yes, taking a few degrees off has proven correct over this winter season. I must be patient!!!!

[Ntxw]

In other news the sun is approaching minimum. Probably next year or the next but so far in 2018, 14 days have been spotless and quiet. That's 52% of the time. It should be a prolonged minimum more than 2008-2010 min. 2009-2010 was pinnacle of this min. If we can get a weak to mod Nino next winter to couple with the sun that would sure be interesting.

I suspect this winter had -QBO/solar couplet to help dampen some of the Nina effects. Cold and warm winters tends to bunch up together.