Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Quixotic]

In other news the sun is approaching minimum. Probably next year or the next but so far in 2018, 14 days have been spotless and quiet. That's 52% of the time. It should be a prolonged minimum more than 2008-2010 min. 2009-2010 was pinnacle of this min. If we can get a weak to mod Nino next winter to couple with the sun that would sure be interesting.

I suspect this winter had -QBO/solar couplet to help dampen some of the Nina effects. Cold and warm winters tends to bunch up together.

Always been a big proponent of the QBO. That anomalous long stretch of the +QBO took the last two winters off the plate. There was nothing to stack things up.

[Ntxw]

Hard to believe GFS and CMC both show (even euro to an extent) near 1050mb HP but don't really drive the cold air (still cold but not as cold as you would think with such a set up) late week. The upper flow is really wreaking havoc.

[Ntxw]

12z GFS post weekend system is full blown Mcfarland signature

[wxman22]

Could the GFS be starting to sniff out a winter storm?...The 12z shows the same storm as the 6z fwiw

[orangeblood]

yep, this run of the GFS is exactly the setup we've been looking for, Euro is trending that way and latest CMC run would be worst case.

This is the first run that makes climatological sense...-EPO Arctic Air push with +NAO SE ridge fighting back, setting up battleground from Texas to New England

[Ntxw]

Could the GFS be starting to sniff out a winter storm?...The 12z shows the same storm as the 6z fwiw

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... cus_43.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... cus_44.png

Euro sniffed it out the other night. CMC does a cutoff mess separated from the flow, GFS finally for a few runs have merged the branches. Still a lot to resolve on the Pacific side. Arctic ridge crashes into the Pac NW ridge on the latest run and sets up a dangerous ice storm.

The back and forth will continue until they figure out what to do off the western Canadian coast. Cold will be there.

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: yep, this run of the GFS is exactly the setup we've been looking for, Euro is trending that way and latest CMC run would be worst case.

This is the first run that makes climatological sense...-EPO Arctic Air push with +NAO SE ridge fighting back, setting up battleground from Texas to New England

It makes more sense with the MJO going into P7. The +PNA isn't until P8 and later.

[orangeblood]

:uarrow: yep, this run of the GFS is exactly the setup we've been looking for, Euro is trending that way and latest CMC run would be worst case.

This is the first run that makes climatological sense...-EPO Arctic Air push with +NAO SE ridge fighting back, setting up battleground from Texas to New England

It makes more sense with the MJO going into P7. The +PNA isn't until P8 and later.

Yep, latest MJO forecast appear to be stalling in Phase 7, which is good for the central and southern plains

[Ntxw]

Also to add. GFS has essentially given up on the sub 940mb low pressure into Hudson Bay and has caved to the Euro department. Previously it took the low from the weekend storm system and took it to town but not so much now. This disperses the cold air further west than it would with a winding deep low in NE Canada. Euro takes the cake here in the trends.

Real interesting if the 12z Euro will hold serve on storm crashing down the west coast.

[Haris]

I think sometime this month, we will see that type of winter storm the 12z gfs is showing. It is certainly possible. Now that exact date? Probably not.

[orangeblood]

I think sometime this month, we will see that type of winter storm the 12z gfs is showing. It is certainly possible. Now that exact date? Probably not.

Although given the MJO projected phase and teleconnection forecasts, this date range is where we would expect the potential to arise..Feb 5-8th. At least over the next 2 weeks

Edit: 12Z GEFS is on board as well...trending colder with now almost 50% of its members showing some sort of winter storm during this time frame (ENS MEAN of 2-4 inches of snow across central into North Texas). 12Z Euro up next

[WinterMax]

wxman22, what would that McFarland signature mean to us down in South Texas and south Louisiana?

[bubba hotep]

:uarrow: yep, this run of the GFS is exactly the setup we've been looking for, Euro is trending that way and latest CMC run would be worst case.

This is the first run that makes climatological sense...-EPO Arctic Air push with +NAO SE ridge fighting back, setting up battleground from Texas to New England

It makes more sense with the MJO going into P7. The +PNA isn't until P8 and later.

Yep, latest MJO forecast appear to be stalling in Phase 7, which is good for the central and southern plains

Remember, we saw this in December and we discussed how a P7 stall would be better for us vs a swing through P8. The difference this time appears that the models have been too quick with this cycle so that gives some hope to it moving through P7 a little slower than in December. Also, remember that the Nina background state interferes with the RMM plots when the MJO is moving through P8/1 causing the RMM to show a lower amplitude. This can give the appearance of it stalling or fading as it moves through P7 on the plot.

[Cpv17]

Nothing much on the 12z Euro.

[bubba hotep]

I'm not sure you could draw up a worse looking Euro/EPS combo than the 12z... cold air stays bottled up north and DFW goes on first 80F day notice.

[hamburgerman7070]

I'm not sure you could draw up a worse looking Euro/EPS combo than the 12z... cold air stays bottled up north and DFW goes on first 80F day notice.

Bubba, so what's going on? Do you believe that run or is it a blip that sometimes happens?

[Brent]

I'm not sure you could draw up a worse looking Euro/EPS combo than the 12z... cold air stays bottled up north and DFW goes on first 80F day notice.

So basically we could have winter or spring next week good job models

[Haris]

12z euro entirely different at the 500mb levels compared to gfs.

Pathetic run. And I don't really believe the gfs. That model tends to overhype systems all the time.

[hamburgerman7070]

12z euro entirely different at the 500mb levels compared to gfs.

Pathetic run. And I don't really believe the gfs. That model tends to overhype systems all the time.

I want to know what the main difference is? Is it because of stronger mjo signal? Maybe some can briefly explain

[hamburgerman7070]

I've seen the models flip flop alot, especially the euro in this timeframe, but it doesn't mean it will happen this time. IMO, if the euro continues the trend, it may be time to be more concerned that no cold or winter precip will happen here