Texas Winter 2017-2018

[TheProfessor]

LOL nearly all the models went poof with my 1-3rd storm right now the only models I have in my corner are the GEPS and the Ukie(not a bad one to have on your side.) sampling hasn't happened yet so things could change, but it's not looking good for that storm right now.

[hriverajr]

The 12 z GFS after the early Feb cold.. shows quite a significant amount of warming.

[Brent]

GFS Op is really all on its own right now. Euro, Canadian, the Ensembles are much different than the GFS Op. Not good for winter weather lovers here in TX.

So much for all the February hype then

This winter getting an F from me apparently lol

[Ntxw]

GFS Op is really all on its own right now. Euro, Canadian, the Ensembles are much different than the GFS Op. Not good for winter weather lovers here in TX.

So much for all the February hype then

Give it a day or two the mood in here will flip 180 . Its happened before every cold snap, you'd think we learn by now but same old same old lol

Trends today weren't good Pacific side, hopefully looks better tomorrow

[hamburgerman7070]

GFS Op is really all on its own right now. Euro, Canadian, the Ensembles are much different than the GFS Op. Not good for winter weather lovers here in TX.

So much for all the February hype then

Give it a day or two the mood in here will flip 180 . Its happened before every cold snap, you'd think we learn by now but same old same old lol

Trends today weren't good Pacific side, hopefully looks better tomorrow

Ntwx, why did the models lose the -epo? Maybe phase 7 supports this scenario? If that actually comes to fruition, it may be good night Irene.

[Ntxw]

So much for all the February hype then

Give it a day or two the mood in here will flip 180 . Its happened before every cold snap, you'd think we learn by now but same old same old lol

Trends today weren't good Pacific side, hopefully looks better tomorrow

Ntwx, why did the models lose the -epo? Maybe phase 7 supports this scenario? If that actually comes to fruition, it may be good night Irene.

Think they retrograde the bering ridge. That doesn't give everything a southward push. And connect west coast ridge to pole.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Well...it’s worked the last 2 times, so....Winter Cancel.

[Brent]

Well...it’s worked the last 2 times, so....Winter Cancel.

Sad times around here when we need wxman57 as the positivity

[Cpv17]

Well we’re about to find out if the GFS will stick to its guns. 18z rolling on in now.

[bubba hotep]

12z EPS is a horror story for DFW, only one freeze, less than 1/3 inch of rain over 15 days, only 5 or the 52 members show even a trace of snow, and the 15 day snow mean is 0.10"!!

[hriverajr]

HP and 850 anomalies a fair amount weaker on 18z gfs

[bubba hotep]

Part of the reason we were so hopeful last week was the long range ensembles and they have busted big time. Mike V. with a good example:

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/957600960871768064

[Haris]

18z GFS trending towards euro and cmc

[Portastorm]

I love you guys ... but ... after reading many of the posts today, I’d like to smack a few of you on top of the head and yell “why aren’t you listening?!”

There are people on this forum who have been around a long time and have a lot of weather knowledge. There are pro mets here who share their insights. You’ve seen multiple posts from wxman57 telling you not to pay heed to models beyond 3 days due to volatility. Some have shared posts from national guys saying the same ... and stressing that the amplitude of the upcoming MJO will overwhelm the models ability to get the pattern right at this point. We’ve got long-time enthusasists like srainhoutx showing why paying attention to indices over models is a better course of action. And he knows a ton about weather. And yet ... some of you are ready to cancel winter and you ride every model run like it’s the most important model run you’ve ever followed. You’re like windsocks and whatever direction that particular model run goes, so you go.

I’m telling you this because I’ve been there before and have learned hard lessons. Listen to the experts. Please. Learn something. I know you guys in North Texas are getting desperate. And poor Ntxw, he’s trying to hold the line with some sanity. Folks, it’s gonna come. It’s gonna happen. Calm down.

Okay my little rant is done. Don’t be offended because it’s meant with good will. Feel free to fire back if you want ... but I’m telling you guys, trust the experts here. Have some faith.

[Texas Snow]

[Haris]

I love you guys ... but ... after reading many of the posts today, I’d like to smack a few of you on top of the head and yell “why aren’t you listening?!”

There are people on this forum who have been around a long time and have a lot of weather knowledge. There are pro mets here who share their insights. You’ve seen multiple posts from wxman57 telling you not to pay heed to models beyond 3 days due to volatility. Some have shared posts from national guys saying the same ... and stressing that the amplitude of the upcoming MJO will overwhelm the models ability to get the pattern right at this point. We’ve got long-time enthusasists like srainhoutx showing why paying attention to indices over models is a better course of action. And he knows a ton about weather. And yet ... some of you are ready to cancel winter and you ride every model run like it’s the most important model run you’ve ever followed. You’re like windsocks and whatever direction that particular model run goes, so you go.

I’m telling you this because I’ve been there before and have learned hard lessons. Listen to the experts. Please. Learn something. I know you guys in North Texas are getting desperate. And poor Ntxw, he’s trying to hold the line with some sanity. Folks, it’s gonna come. It’s gonna happen. Calm down.

Okay my little rant is done. Don’t be offended because it’s meant with good will. Feel free to fire back if you want ... but I’m telling you guys, trust the experts here. Have some faith.

Well said! 100% agreed. I am guilty of that sometimes. But good thing is that I am not spending much time on it. Check the models twice a day and be done with it. Lets not get obsessed over it folks. If it happens, it will happen. We just need to be patient. Enjoy your day. Get outside and enjoy the nice weather. Because if you keep looking at the models all day and get excited after each run and then when 1 run no longer shows it, it will mess with your mood and its just a big ugly cycle. I have learned my lesson from that.

[gboudx]

I love you guys ... but ... after reading many of the posts today, I’d like to smack a few of you on top of the head and yell “why aren’t you listening?!”

...

Do yourself a favor and copy this to a text file so you can paste it later. You'll need it.

[Ntxw]

Oh dear Portastorm how the tables have turned for you. Years of your agony watching afar to the folks to your north now turns you to the ebullient one, with your taste of snow while we are thirsting. What an upside down world we are in, where Portastorm and Wxman57 are the voice of winter reason, despair in the lovers of cold and snow

[aperson]

Part of the reason we were so hopeful last week was the long range ensembles and they have busted big time. Mike V. with a good example:

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/957600960871768064

I'm starting to get the feeling that our lack of obs in the Arctic is really going to screw with synoptic predictions moving forward as our geopotential patterns continue to get more amplified.

GFS had a reasonably good grip on the huge anticyclonic wavebreak in the NPAC, but there's been a dprog/dt trend of building up 5H even higher for pretty much the past week.

[SnowintheFalls]

I love you guys ... but ... after reading many of the posts today, I’d like to smack a few of you on top of the head and yell “why aren’t you listening?!”

There are people on this forum who have been around a long time and have a lot of weather knowledge. There are pro mets here who share their insights. You’ve seen multiple posts from wxman57 telling you not to pay heed to models beyond 3 days due to volatility. Some have shared posts from national guys saying the same ... and stressing that the amplitude of the upcoming MJO will overwhelm the models ability to get the pattern right at this point. We’ve got long-time enthusasists like srainhoutx showing why paying attention to indices over models is a better course of action. And he knows a ton about weather. And yet ... some of you are ready to cancel winter and you ride every model run like it’s the most important model run you’ve ever followed. You’re like windsocks and whatever direction that particular model run goes, so you go.

I’m telling you this because I’ve been there before and have learned hard lessons. Listen to the experts. Please. Learn something. I know you guys in North Texas are getting desperate. And poor Ntxw, he’s trying to hold the line with some sanity. Folks, it’s gonna come. It’s gonna happen. Calm down.

Okay my little rant is done. Don’t be offended because it’s meant with good will. Feel free to fire back if you want ... but I’m telling you guys, trust the experts here. Have some faith.

While it sure does feel dire as time does not appear on our side for a N TX winter storm, you have walked me off the edge of a winter cancel Porta! I am proclaiming that our time will come before winter's end for us up in north Texas!