Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Cpv17]

0z GFS (medium range) looks somewhat like the Euro..

We need to start seeing this cold show up under 200 hours or else I’m going to have a hard time believing it.

Follow the GEFS Mean temp until we're within the 6-7 day range, I'd expect the OP to be back and forth over next several days

Can you explain to me what a Rex block is and what it could do to our weather?

[Ralph's Weather]

GEPS and EPS offer a wide range of solutions I the long range. There is still some impressively cold and snow solutions on the table. We are looking at a very rare sry of variables which means we have few good analogs to refer back to. I lean towards the cold solutions based on very cold source region and -EPO. Moisture is tricky though. I do not foresee a big storm but with every NW flow ripple we will have to watch for moisture availability in the short ranges.

[hamburgerman7070]

When is the big time cold coming if it is at all? The euro definitely isn't nearly as cold as gfs. Beginning to wonder if it will get cold again this winter. Dry nw flow isn't exciting at all. I guess I'm really confused more than anything. I guess the cross polar flow isn't going to happen for us.

[Cpv17]

When is the big time cold coming if it is at all? The euro definitely isn't nearly as cold as gfs. Beginning to wonder if it will get cold again this winter. Dry nw flow isn't exciting at all. I guess I'm really confused more than anything. I guess the cross polar flow isn't going to happen for us.

The cold will be there in our source region. We just need something to kick it south. I believe the timeframe will be from around the 8th through 15th, but yes I’m beginning to wonder if it will get cold again this winter myself.

[dhweather]

Too bad the 300+ hour GFS is like all the other 300+ hour GFS runs - not gonna happen. I do believe the first 240 hours, warm and dry with a couple of brief cool downs.

[Brent]

Lol GFS lost all the cold til fantasy land

I'm gonna go pick myself up off the floor from this shocking event

0z Euro so far much warmer this weekend, 60s Sunday, Monday near 70, remember last night thinking frozen precip was possible here?

[ThunderSleetDreams]

When is the big time cold coming if it is at all? The euro definitely isn't nearly as cold as gfs. Beginning to wonder if it will get cold again this winter. Dry nw flow isn't exciting at all. I guess I'm really confused more than anything. I guess the cross polar flow isn't going to happen for us.

Cross Polar flow IS happening at this moment. Just because there is cross polar flow doesn’t mean places south of the Canadian border are going to get cold. It just means that our source regions are loaded for us.

With that said, one would think most of you would have learned your lesson by now following each model run to run outside of 3-5 days. Our coldest air has been modeled to be here between the 9th and 16th. The people who know the most on here are persistent it’s coming. What we don’t know is timing and severity.

When I look at the ingredients for the next 16 days, I’d make a heavy wager cold is coming. Precip won’t be talked about until 2/5.

Hell, if we don’t get an arctic front or two, I’ll change my avatar to that ugly burnt orange uterus symbol for a month...

[Tejas89]

Thought y’all would find this interesting! Since we always say Texas has crazy temperature swings.

As an antidote to the report of minus-88 degree weather in the Siberian outpost of Oymyakon earlier this month, we give you this: The temperature in a settlement just to its east was an astonishing 126 degrees warmer two weeks later.

The mercury in Omolon, Russia, reached its highest January temperature ever recorded Monday: a relatively toasty 38.4 degrees.

38 degrees doesn’t exactly sound like a day at the beach, but consider that it’s 64 degrees warmer than Omolon’s average high of minus-26 at this time of year.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/01/30/the-temperature-in-siberia-rose-more-than-100-degrees-in-two-weeks/?hpid=hp_hp-cards_hp-card-world:homepage/card&utm_term=.1c62ec88a915

[Yukon Cornelius]

Record warmth forecasted today...

[orangeblood]

My reaction after looking over the overnight model runs....



Just a truly incredible flip for an ensemble...the the kind of flip you normally see from an individual member but not a whole suite

The MJO isn't updated yet but I'm assuming it's barreling through Phase 7 to Phase 8, which is typically not good for us over the next couple of weeks or so

[orangeblood]

Yesterday's Mean Temp Forecast



To this 12 hrs later

[bubba hotep]

Pretty good agreement now between the GEFS and EPS with EPS being a bit warmer. The 00z EPS doesn't have any cold air in N. America at the end of the run with a huge western H dominating everything.

[srainhoutx]

My reaction after looking over the overnight model runs....

Just a truly incredible flip for an ensemble...the the kind of flip you normally see from an individual member but not a whole suite

The MJO isn't updated yet but I'm assuming it's barreling through Phase 7 to Phase 8, which is typically not good for us over the next couple of weeks or so

Both the GFS and the GEFS suggest a loop developing in Phase 7 suddenly at the end of the 12 day period. Struggles continue and likely will until next week.

[weatherdude1108]

Not sure if anyone posted this already, but my brother shared this with me yesterday. Only in the Lone Star state.



4:33 PM - 30 Jan 2018
https://twitter.com/NWSLubbock/status/9 ... 5111721985

[orangeblood]

Pretty good agreement now between the GEFS and EPS with EPS being a bit warmer. The 00z EPS doesn't have any cold air in N. America at the end of the run with a huge western H dominating everything.

Yep, it's going to the biggest threat to end a pattern like this....The Bering Strait Ridge retrograding back towards Siberia instead of down into Alaska/NA. If there is some validity to the overnight runs, my concern would then shift to.... by the time the MJO gets over into Phase 1,2,3 - will there be enough cold air in NA to make this interesting ? That happened last year - by the time the MJO swung around into favorable phases for us, there was no cold to be found

[orangeblood]

Both the GFS and the GEFS suggest a loop developing in Phase 7 suddenly at the end of the 12 day period. Struggles continue and likely will until next week.

Where are you getting the updated GFS/GEFS MJO forecasts? - the CPC site isn't updating

[srainhoutx]

Both the GFS and the GEFS suggest a loop developing in Phase 7 suddenly at the end of the 12 day period. Struggles continue and likely will until next week.

Where are you getting the updated GFS/GEFS MJO forecasts? - the CPC site isn't updating

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... oper.shtml

[Portastorm]

When is the big time cold coming if it is at all? The euro definitely isn't nearly as cold as gfs. Beginning to wonder if it will get cold again this winter. Dry nw flow isn't exciting at all. I guess I'm really confused more than anything. I guess the cross polar flow isn't going to happen for us.

Cross Polar flow IS happening at this moment. Just because there is cross polar flow doesn’t mean places south of the Canadian border are going to get cold. It just means that our source regions are loaded for us.

With that said, one would think most of you would have learned your lesson by now following each model run to run outside of 3-5 days. Our coldest air has been modeled to be here between the 9th and 16th. The people who know the most on here are persistent it’s coming. What we don’t know is timing and severity.

When I look at the ingredients for the next 16 days, I’d make a heavy wager cold is coming. Precip won’t be talked about until 2/5.

Hell, if we don’t get an arctic front or two, I’ll change my avatar to that ugly burnt orange uterus symbol for a month...

I know ThunderSleetDreams to be a passionate fan of that school who proudly sings about farmers fighting and all that ... so for him to make this bet to change his avatar to honor our state's finest bovine symbol ... well folks, that's huge! LOL.

[orangeblood]

Both the GFS and the GEFS suggest a loop developing in Phase 7 suddenly at the end of the 12 day period. Struggles continue and likely will until next week.

Where are you getting the updated GFS/GEFS MJO forecasts? - the CPC site isn't updating

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... oper.shtml

Thanks...interesting, the MJO doesn't appear to be the main culprit of this forecast flip. Is it the Bering Strait Ridge retrogression ? Anyone have an opinion on what the driver is of the overnight flip ?

[Tireman4]

Remember, Porta is our original cold mongerer. He needs all the love for this Winter will continue to excite him. Thundersleetdreams is the ultimate cold warrior. We all love him. For him to do that as a bet...oh my