Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Ntxw]

The warm southwest winds this time of year has kicked up mountain cedar. I have felt it this week..the hell from the hill country

[WinterMax]

Hmmm, what's the CMC up to near the end of the run? Hahah, trying to brew something up !!

[dhweather]

The warm southwest winds this time of year has kicked up mountain cedar. I have felt it this week..the hell from the hill country

and I could literally tell too. The hell from hill country - I like it!

[dhweather]

Planetary Wave 2 Pattern detected near mid February suggesting not only a PV split, but a possible SSW event as well. Carefully watch the teleconnection indices around Day 7 (next week). The Northern Hemispheric Pattern looks ready for a Major Shakeup. Expect a lot of volatility in the guidance.

As opposed to normal ?

[Portastorm]

Interestingly enough our cedar counts maxed out between the two-week period of January 8-23. In the Austin area, we currently only have moderate counts. But it was really bad a few weeks ago.

[dhweather]

How about the 12z Canadian to cheer up the mood in here? Trough digs into Mexico next weekend bringing frozen precip to north TX and widespread beneficial rainfall to south and central TX.

A very good thing.

[dhweather]

Interestingly enough our cedar counts maxed out between the two-week period of January 8-23. In the Austin area, we currently only have moderate counts. But it was really bad a few weeks ago.

Just checked, we are only in the moderate range. Which reminds me how bad it was here 2016-17 Winter, which I was sick most of.

http://entdocs.com/pollen-count/

[Brent]

Euro dry

[Portastorm]

So the new drought maps came out on Tuesday and the trend continues to be bad for Texas. I'm thinking we're going to see some epic haboobs this spring coming out of West Texas. The early spring wildfire season will be bad too. Someone "bring the rain."

[South Texas Storms]

Yeah it's starting to get bad out there quick. We could really use the rain. I'm hoping the pattern change to wet will arrive next week. Unfortunately the 12z Euro isn't on board.

[Cpv17]

:uarrow: Yeah it's starting to get bad out there quick. We could really use the rain. I'm hoping the pattern change to wet will arrive next week. Unfortunately the 12z Euro isn't on board.

I heard somewhere that a Nino could start back up by late in the summer into fall, but idk about that.

[Ntxw]

Interestingly enough our cedar counts maxed out between the two-week period of January 8-23. In the Austin area, we currently only have moderate counts. But it was really bad a few weeks ago.

Just checked, we are only in the moderate range. Which reminds me how bad it was here 2016-17 Winter, which I was sick most of.

http://entdocs.com/pollen-count/

In North Texas is all about wind direction. Southwest winds is the direction that carries cedar pollen for us. That happens to be warming winds in winter, plenty in 2016-2017

[CaptinCrunch]

DFW and all of North Texas had a much drier than normal January. DFW only received 0.85 inches of precipitation which was 1.28 inches below normal. This made January 2018 the 30th driest January on record. The wettest January on record was in 1932 when 9.07 inches of rain fell. The driest January on record was in 1986 when only a trace of rain fell. Despite a couple of strong cold snaps that brought low temperatures in the teens, January ended up only being 0.1 degrees below normal. The coldest temperature during January at DFW was 13 degrees on the 17th and the warmest temperature was 77 degrees that occurred on the 21st and 31st. There were three days that each recorded traces of snow. There were also three days with highs at or below freezing.

[Brent]

:uarrow: Yeah it's starting to get bad out there quick. We could really use the rain. I'm hoping the pattern change to wet will arrive next week. Unfortunately the 12z Euro isn't on board.

I heard somewhere that a Nino could start back up by late in the summer into fall, but idk about that.

was reading yesterday apparently big MJO events(similar to the current one) have a history of beginning El Nino...

one can hope...

I'm kind of surprised January basically finished average even after all the dry cold...

[Ntxw]

History says an El Nino this year is very unlikely. It likes to do multiple neutrals after double Ninas. We would need followup WWB like this one throughout spring to kickstart a Nino. This is enough to terminate the Nina but is not nearly strong enough to reverse trades east of the dateline.

In the strange event we do get one, moderate with low solar is the cream of the crop

[Texas Snowman]

I'm not sure we'll see any additional winter weather in Texas.

You do realize my good sir that failure to deliver the wintry goods to North Texas would nullify any and all previous agreements made concerning summer?

[Ntxw]

He is tinkering with the stratosphere. Trying to Suddenly Warm everything up there. Last minute ditch effort?

[wxman57]

I'm not sure we'll see any additional winter weather in Texas.

You do realize my good sir that failure to deliver the wintry goods to North Texas would nullify any and all previous agreements made concerning summer?

I would say that I did pretty good in delivering lots of cold and ice across Texas this winter. Don't be greedy. And it's not summer I want - that's always warm. It's next winter (or lack thereof)

[Brent]

I'm not sure we'll see any additional winter weather in Texas.

You do realize my good sir that failure to deliver the wintry goods to North Texas would nullify any and all previous agreements made concerning summer?

I would say that I did pretty good in delivering lots of cold and ice across Texas this winter. Don't be greedy. And it's not summer I want - that's always warm. It's next winter (or lack thereof)

Well... parts of Texas anyway.

[hamburgerman7070]

Ntxw, if we have this pv split, how long before we feel effects here? Do you think that will be only thing that would save winter at this point?