SWIO: CEBILE - Post-Tropical

[1900hurricane]

I might have to scratch long and sloppy out of of my previous assessment regarding eyewall replacement. Looks like it may be getting by without a hitch.

[cycloneye]

JTWC at 21:00 UTC is at 100 kts.

[Chris90]

Based off satellite it looks like the inner eye doesn't quite want to die off completely. It's been swirling around inside the larger eye for awhile now. I'd love to see it finish and for a big clear eye to show up.

[cycloneye]

JTWC at 03:00 UTC warning remains at 100 kts.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

doughnut cyclone

[doomhaMwx]

[cycloneye]

Impressive.



 https://twitter.com/chrisdolcewx/status/958336043555655680

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

An animation, very nice structure.

[euro6208]

07S CEBILE 180131 0000 16.0S 78.1E SHEM 120 938

Up to a category 4.

[1900hurricane]

Pretty nice VIIRS pass from earlier:

[euro6208]

The JTWC wording Topical Cyclone translates to = hurricane in this basin confusing
mauritians people.
JTWC uses only the generic term Tropical Cyclone to refer to systems of all intensities in warning status.

JTWC is not part of the WMO. It has no 'mandate' and 'regional responsibility'. It answers only to the US Navy and US taxpayer.

Yup JTWC isn't part of the WMO but this region is part of their responsibility since 1980 along with the whole Pacific region and Indian ocean and just recently began issuing warnings every 6 hours for the SHEM. What a great accomplishment! It's been around since 1959 and has more followers worldwide than any other agency and is well respected.

They been using the term Tropical Cyclone for many years to describe all intensities in the SHEM. Nothing new.

[wxman57]

The official agency for the basin, La Reunion, has current intensity at 80 kts (10-min wind). Dvorak only 5.0. Note that all tropical systems in the South Indian Ocean are referred to as "Tropical Cyclone", no matter the intensity. As for La Reunion's intensity estimate, some RSMCs are better than others...

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/5/20172018
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CEBILE)
2.A POSITION 2018/01/31 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6 S / 77.3 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL
THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/W 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 962 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 350 SW: 390 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 90
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/02/01 00 UTC: 15.9 S / 76.3 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2018/02/01 12 UTC: 16.2 S / 75.8 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2018/02/02 00 UTC: 16.8 S / 75.4 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2018/02/02 12 UTC: 17.6 S / 75.4 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2018/02/03 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 75.9 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2018/02/03 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 77.2 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/02/04 12 UTC: 21.5 S / 80.0 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2018/02/05 12 UTC: 24.6 S / 80.9 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CEBILE WIDE EYE PATTERN DID NOT EVOLVE. THE
EYE CONTRACTION OBSERVED IN THE EARLY MORNING, STOPPED APPARENTLY.
THE RSMC DVORAK ESTIMATES, IS THUS STILL LIMITED BY THE EYE SIZE.
CEBILE KEEPS ON TRACKING MAINLY WESTWARDS. THE SYSTEM IS CAUGHT
BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-WEST AND THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE IN THE NORTH-EAST. THESE TWO SYNOPTIC STRUCTURES ARE DRIVING
OPPOSITE STEERING FLOWS. HOWEVER, FROM TOMORROW, THE FIRST ONE IS
EXPECTED TO DECAY, MAKING THE MAIN STEERING FLOW PROGRESSIVELY DRIVEN
BY THE SECOND ONE. THIS CHANGE WILL LEAD TO A SHARP SOUTH-EASTWARD
TURN FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL ACCELERATION. THE GUIDANCE DISPERSION
REMAINS IMPORTANT BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY OVER THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT HOURS. DIFFERENT SCENARIOS SEEMS TO START
CONVERGING TOWARDS AN INTERMEDIATE SOLUTION. THE CURRENT TRACK
FORECAST IS MOSTLY BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF RECENT IFS AND GFS
GUIDANCE.
UNTIL TOMORROW, CEBILE SHOULD EVOLVE WITHIN QUASI-PERFECT CONDITIONS
CONCERNING WIND SHEAR, UPPER DIVERGENCE AND OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT. AN
INTENSIFICATION IS STILL POSSIBLE AT SHORT RANGE. FROM THURSDAY
EVENING, EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BUT
THIS DECREASE SHOULD BE OFFSET BY AN INCREASING POLARWARD CHANNEL
OUTFLOW. MOREOVER, IF THE MOTION IS SLOWER THAN EXPECTED WHEN IT
SHOULD CURVE SOUTHEASTWARD, THE SELF-INDUCED SST COOLING COULD
SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE CEBILE'S INTENSITY. FROM FRIDAY EVENING, A
ROSSBY WAVE BREAKING LOCATED WEST OF THE SYSTEM WILL INCREASE QUICKLY
THE NORTHWESTWARD VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND CEBILE'S INTENSITY IS
FORECAST TO QUICKLY DECREASE AS IT WILL MOVE OVER COOLER SURFACE SEA
TEMPERATURE. AT LAST THE SYSTEM MAY THEN BEGIN ITS
EXTRA-TROPICALISATION PHASE.=
NNNN

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

WTIO30-FMEE: RSMC La Reunion Forecast Warning

31/1820(RRB)
31/1247(RRC)
31/0630 (17) TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CEBILE) 15.7°S 77.6°E 962 HPA 80 KT
31/0022 (16) TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CEBILE) 15.9°S 78.4°E 960 HPA 80 KT
30/1811 (15) TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CEBILE) 15.9°S 78.8°E 958 HPA 85 KT
30/1219 (14) TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CEBILE) 16.0°S 79.0°E 958 HPA 85 KT
30/0631 (13) TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CEBILE) 16.1°S 79.6°E 960 HPA 80 KT
30/0123 (12) TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CEBILE) 16.0°S 80.4°E 958 HPA 80 KT
29/1858 (11) TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CEBILE) 15.7°S 80.7°E 955 HPA 85 KT
29/1229 (10) INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CEBILE) 15.7°S 81.2°E 946 HPA 95 KT
29/0614 (9) INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CEBILE) 15.3°S 81.6°E 944 HPA 100 KT
29/0021 (8) INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CEBILE) 14.9°S 82.2°E 944 HPA 100 KT
28/1832 (7) INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CEBILE) 14.2°S 82.6°E 944 HPA 100 KT
28/1306 (6) INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CEBILE) 13.8°S 83.2°E 950 HPA 95 KT
28/0656 (5) TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CEBILE) 13.2°S 84.0°E 977 HPA 70 KT
28/0016 (4) SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (CEBILE) 12.5°S 84.3°E 990 HPA 50 KT
27/1826 (3) MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (CEBILE) 12.1°S 85.0°E 995 HPA 40 KT
27/1227 (2) TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 11.5°S 85.0°E 997 HPA 30 KT
27/0627 (1) TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 11.3°S 85.2°E 999 HPA 30 KT

WTXS31-PGTW: JTWC Tropical Cyclone Warning (SWIO/W Aus) 1

31/1500 (019) TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) 15.6°S 77.3°E 115 KT
31/0900 (018) TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) 15.8°S 77.6°E 115 KT
31/0300 (017) TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) 16.0°S 78.1°E 120 KT
30/2100 (016) TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) 15.9°S 78.8°E 110 KT
30/1500 (015) TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) 16.0°S 79.3°E 100 KT
30/0900 (014) TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) 16.0°S 79.8°E 100 KT
30/0300 (013) TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) 16.0°S 80.4°E 100 KT
29/2100 (012) TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) 15.7°S 80.8°E 100 KT
29/1500 (011) TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) 15.7°S 81.2°E 110 KT
29/0900 (010) TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) 15.3°S 81.7°E 110 KT
29/0300 (009) TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) 14.8°S 82.1°E 110 KT
28/2100 (008) TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) 14.3°S 82.7°E 115 KT
28/1500 (007) TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) 13.9°S 83.0°E 090 KT
28/0900 (006) TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) 13.3°S 84.0°E 065 KT
28/0300 (005) TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) 12.6°S 84.6°E 045 KT
27/2100 (004) TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) 11.8°S 84.4°E 045 KT
27/1500 (003) TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) 11.7°S 84.5°E 035 KT
27/0900 (002) TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) 11.0°S 84.6°E 035 KT
27/0300 (001) TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) 9.8°S 85.3°E 030 KT

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

WTIO30 FMEE 010020 RRA 2018032 0050
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/5/20172018
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CEBILE)
2.A POSITION 2018/02/01 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.5 S / 76.5 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL
FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 2 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 1.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 955 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 330 SW: 410 NW: 200
34 KT NE: 200 SE: 270 SW: 190 NW: 180
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 170 SW: 130 NW: 120
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 90
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/02/01 12 UTC: 15.9 S / 75.7 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2018/02/02 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 75.4 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2018/02/02 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 75.5 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2018/02/03 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 76.0 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2018/02/03 12 UTC: 18.4 S / 77.4 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2018/02/04 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 78.9 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/02/05 00 UTC: 22.0 S / 80.4 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2018/02/06 00 UTC: 25.1 S / 80.6 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5
wxtlist.k: done

95/10 min is up there.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Another eyewall replacement cycle starting?

[1900hurricane]

The overall eyewall configuration looks pretty stable on microwave imagery. I suspect environmental conditions are starting to become less favorable. The same microwave imagery shows quite a bit of drier air encroaching on the circulation.

[BYG Jacob]

Looks like its making a comeback

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... -RSMC.html

[1900hurricane]

Ever since eyewall replacement, SATCON has been running way below the JTWC estimates.