Texas Winter 2017-2018

Winter Weather Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Cpv17
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4989
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:24 pm
Location: Wharton/El Campo, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#7701 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Feb 02, 2018 6:19 pm

Brent wrote:Nope not reeling me back in yet...winter cancel :lol:


I agree 100% tbh. Need to see this inside 3 days :lol:
1 likes   

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 22789
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#7702 Postby Ntxw » Fri Feb 02, 2018 6:21 pm

Brent wrote:Nope not reeling me back in yet...winter cancel :lol:


You know you can't resist :cheesy:. Once a model addict, always a model addict. Just because it is a little intriguing you will be checking the 0z runs on cue :wink:
7 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

  Help support Storm2K!
Help Support Storm2K

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 22789
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#7703 Postby Ntxw » Fri Feb 02, 2018 6:31 pm

Looks like Euro bunch decided to join in on the SSW

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/959543178549514240




If this does happen I think it will be the first true SSW (wind reversal) since 2012?
1 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


User avatar
bubba hotep
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5837
Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:00 am
Location: Collin County Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#7704 Postby bubba hotep » Fri Feb 02, 2018 10:48 pm

The last few runs of the EPS have certainly been trending in the right direction. The 12z today had about 10 members with some kind of winter wx into N. Texas and there were some members with single digit lows. The models have a lot of energy diving into the SW with some cold air over the top, as others have said, it comes down to timing. Also, we have to actually see that energy dig into the SW and not just round the ridge into a positive tilted sheared out trough.
1 likes   
Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

User avatar
South Texas Storms
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4230
Joined: Thu Jun 24, 2010 12:28 am
Location: Houston, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#7705 Postby South Texas Storms » Fri Feb 02, 2018 11:32 pm

0z models continue to look interesting for next weekend. German model is showing a widespread ice storm across much of TX.
0 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38097
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#7706 Postby Brent » Fri Feb 02, 2018 11:37 pm

some frozen precip in West Texas on the GFS next weekend... just rain for most

a LOT of rain on the GFS in the long range... maybe at least it'll rain

Over 3" of rain at DFW this run and most of it is a chilly rain in the long range
1 likes   
#neversummer

hamburgerman7070
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 253
Joined: Sat Dec 02, 2017 7:39 pm
Location: Jonesboro ar

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#7707 Postby hamburgerman7070 » Sat Feb 03, 2018 12:59 am

Southtexastorms, how long does it take for the models to latch on to a potential pv split or SSW event? I've been reading on twitter and various other places and its hard to decipher anything. I know these events are tricky, but its been a long time since we have had one. I think if this split don't work out for us, we can give up on winter imo.
0 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38097
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#7708 Postby Brent » Sat Feb 03, 2018 1:45 am

Euro appears to be real close to a winter storm in Dallas next Saturday Night :double:

Definitely at least some light snow as the precip ends early Sunday, lot of precip before that with falling temps
0 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
wxman22
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1493
Joined: Mon Jan 30, 2006 12:39 am
Location: Wichita Falls, TX
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#7709 Postby wxman22 » Sat Feb 03, 2018 2:10 am

0z Euro is onboard

Image

Image
0 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38097
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#7710 Postby Brent » Sat Feb 03, 2018 2:20 am

on the snow depth map several inches NW of DFW including Wichita Falls

up to 2 inches in DFW, highest NW

I'll believe it when I see it :P
2 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
wxman22
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1493
Joined: Mon Jan 30, 2006 12:39 am
Location: Wichita Falls, TX
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#7711 Postby wxman22 » Sat Feb 03, 2018 3:19 am

Also interesting is nearly all of the GFS ensemble's show a winter storm.
1 likes   

User avatar
Cpv17
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4989
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:24 pm
Location: Wharton/El Campo, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#7712 Postby Cpv17 » Sat Feb 03, 2018 3:40 am

wxman22 wrote:Also interesting is nearly all of the GFS ensemble's show a winter storm.


Do any of them show anything for SE TX?
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman22
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1493
Joined: Mon Jan 30, 2006 12:39 am
Location: Wichita Falls, TX
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#7713 Postby wxman22 » Sat Feb 03, 2018 3:55 am

A few of them bring frozen precip to southeast Texas fwiw
0 likes   

User avatar
Cpv17
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4989
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:24 pm
Location: Wharton/El Campo, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#7714 Postby Cpv17 » Sat Feb 03, 2018 5:45 am

06z GFS is completely different at the 500mb level compared to the past few runs. As a result, not showing much precipitation.
1 likes   

User avatar
srainhoutx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6919
Age: 67
Joined: Sun Jan 14, 2007 11:34 am
Location: Haywood County, NC
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#7715 Postby srainhoutx » Sat Feb 03, 2018 9:38 am

Current temperature in our source region of Northwest Territory Canada at Rabbit Kettle is -51.7F
2 likes   
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Wx Infinity Forums
http://wxinfinity.com/index.php

Facebook.com/WeatherInfinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity

User avatar
hriverajr
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 786
Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2005 12:16 am

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#7716 Postby hriverajr » Sat Feb 03, 2018 9:41 am

Cpv17 wrote:06z GFS is completely different at the 500mb level compared to the past few runs. As a result, not showing much precipitation.


It dampens out the SW energy..
0 likes   

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 22789
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#7717 Postby Ntxw » Sat Feb 03, 2018 9:47 am

NAM is optimistic for the panhandle. While this isn't saying much for the rest of the state, the fact that something is going to dig in the Great Basin is a good sign of change. Amarillo (finally!) to OKC may get some snow in the coming days
2 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


Ralph's Weather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3269
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2013 11:55 am
Location: Lindale, TX
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#7718 Postby Ralph's Weather » Sat Feb 03, 2018 10:02 am

I really hope this pattern brings good snow to NM mountains. Sipapu averages around 200" of snow per season and they are atound 22" I believe so far.
0 likes   
Follow on Facebook at Ralph's Weather.

DonWrk
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 488
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2011 11:54 pm
Location: Collinsville, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#7719 Postby DonWrk » Sat Feb 03, 2018 10:20 am

Is Amarillo on tap for any kind of record least amount of snowfall or anything close to that? I can't remember a year where it's been so lackluster up that way.
0 likes   

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 22789
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#7720 Postby Ntxw » Sat Feb 03, 2018 10:29 am

DonWrk wrote:Is Amarillo on tap for any kind of record least amount of snowfall or anything close to that? I can't remember a year where it's been so lackluster up that way.


Record for Amarillo least in a season is 0.1" 1949-1950. Currently they sit at a trace. Average to date is around 11"

However Amarillo is a place of extremes. In one swoop they can get a blizzard in March or April and cash in
1 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K



Return to “Winter Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 10 guests