Texas Winter 2017-2018

[bubba hotep]

Some low end svr wx chances for DFW on Tuesday and the 00z GFS is actually a decent soaking with those storms.

NBC 5 just had a 70% chance of rain Tuesday, I did a double take lol, this morning it was like 30-40% it seems

GFS next Saturday Night, brief very brief mix in DFW

Digs the energy a bit more but the orientation still isn't great for DFW, we need it to dig and either cutoff or get to neutral and then tilt negative as it kicks out.

[hamburgerman7070]

Southtexastorms, I have a question. If the soi is dropping, why aren't the models showing much precip? Is there a reason?

[South Texas Storms]

Southtexastorms, I have a question. If the soi is dropping, why aren't the models showing much precip? Is there a reason?

They have been trending wetter over the past few days! Models are indicating more troughing in the west.

[Brent]

Euro has close to a half inch of rain Tuesday DFW

Not much to see next weekend... dry and not really cold enough anyway

[srainhoutx]

Anybody playing model slots beyond Thursday is kidding themselves. Every operational and ensembles scheme in our reliable Global computer models strongly diverge from their previous run from Thursday on. It only gets worse in the 10 day and beyond in the longer range . The volatility is some of the worst we have seen in a long time.

[Portastorm]

Anybody playing model slots beyond Thursday is kidding themselves. Every operational and ensembles scheme in our reliable Global computer models strongly diverge from their previous run from Thursday on. It only gets worse in the 10 day and beyond in the longer range . The volatility is some of the worst we have seen in a long time.

Agreed! Michael Ventrice tweeted about this very thing this morning and said the models beyond 5 days are useless right now and also referenced volatility on a scale seldom seen.

[1900hurricane]

Anybody playing model slots beyond Thursday is kidding themselves. Every operational and ensembles scheme in our reliable Global computer models strongly diverge from their previous run from Thursday on. It only gets worse in the 10 day and beyond in the longer range . The volatility is some of the worst we have seen in a long time.

Agreed! Michael Ventrice tweeted about this very thing this morning and said the models beyond 5 days are useless right now and also referenced volatility on a scale seldom seen.

Here's that Tweet just for reference.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/960114547771232261

[Tireman4]

Ever changing forecast. Stay tuned.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Some low end svr wx chances for DFW on Tuesday and the 00z GFS is actually a decent soaking with those storms.

NBC 5 just had a 70% chance of rain Tuesday, I did a double take lol, this morning it was like 30-40% it seems

GFS next Saturday Night, brief very brief mix in DFW

Digs the energy a bit more but the orientation still isn't great for DFW, we need it to dig and either cutoff or get to neutral and then tilt negative as it kicks out.

Question, and apologies if I've asked this before, but what are the factors that cause a trough go negative tilt? It seems we haven't seen that happen over fall or winter.

[orangeblood]

US 2017-18 Winter Snowfall Map to date

[bubba hotep]

After a chance of storms on Tuesday the 12z models are pretty blah for DFW. Euro is just ugly, the GEFS offers up a couple more chances of rain, but not much in the way of winter wx. The last two EPS runs have been pretty boring, maybe something will change as the 12z EPS rolls in.

[bubba hotep]

Euro EPS is finally starting to propagate the MJO while the GEFS is doubling down on stalling in P7.

Euro MJO



February MJO P8 Temp Anomalies

[Yukon Cornelius]

Any new news on this coming up weekend’s possibly winter weather, or is it vanished and gone?

[Brent]

Any new news on this coming up weekend’s possibly winter weather, or is it vanished and gone?

Poof on the euro. What else is new. Lets just hope we have a spring

[bubba hotep]

After a chance of storms on Tuesday the 12z models are pretty blah for DFW. Euro is just ugly, the GEFS offers up a couple more chances of rain, but not much in the way of winter wx. The last two EPS runs have been pretty boring, maybe something will change as the 12z EPS rolls in.

Basically, no winter wx across Texas during the 15 day 12z EPS.

[Ntxw]

Any new news on this coming up weekend’s possibly winter weather, or is it vanished and gone?

This thread has essentially died. In part because lack of model support/consistency and also in part folks who posts longer range have been discouraged to present their ideas from the tones. In past seasons, discussions about SSW and how they work would be full force/learning as the upcoming event. This is what I was referencing earlier in the season about thread degrading to something like the tropical threads.

To answer your question, low probability of winter wx this coming weekend aside from a seasonable front as it stands

[Yukon Cornelius]

Any new news on this coming up weekend’s possibly winter weather, or is it vanished and gone?

This thread has essentially died. In part because lack of model support/consistency and also in part folks who posts longer range have been discouraged to present their ideas from the tones. In past seasons, discussions about SSW and how they work would be full force/learning as the upcoming event. This is what I was referencing earlier in the season about thread degrading to something like the tropical threads.

To answer your question, low probability of winter wx this coming weekend aside from a seasonable front as it stands

Even though things don’t look great, I still enjoy reading longer range possibilities from the people that a lot more than myself, which is quite a few. It definitely is discouraging with how much promise February looked to hold and now models, which we haven’t been able to trust all winter, are showing very little. I’ve joked around with the “winter cancel” this year. Heck, I’m usually the one to throw the winter cancel out on our first warm day as a joke but We still have roughly a month and a half for the possibility of something to happen. Sometimes even into April. I hate to see the winter thread just die.

[TheProfessor]

This winter has been pretty sad here other than that early January storm. We've had multiple storms(or lack thereof) where the models will show 4-8 inches of snow falling inside of 4 or even 3 days only for the storm to get sheared out or suppressed or even rain. It's been kind of annoying. It's one thing when it happens in the 5-7 day range, but when your within 100 hours and the models decide the 500 flow is going to be flat until it hits some part of the north east. Its happened 3 times this past week I'm still holding out hope for this midweek storm, but the trend does not look good right now.

[Brent]

I'm kind of over winter but also sad to see it getting near the end i had a lot of hope for this winter and while the cold was nice at times its been so annoying to just miss out on literally everything

I still hope North Texas can get something in the next month but tick tock. I dont really trust March that much to produce

[SnowintheFalls]

I'm kind of over winter but also sad to see it getting near the end i had a lot of hope for this winter and while the cold was nice at times its been so annoying to just miss out on literally everything

I still hope North Texas can get something in the next month but tick tock. I dont really trust March that much to produce

Yeah, the near misses of cold and precipitation seem to sting more than just flat out warmer weather. It is exciting to discuss but the disappointment when it comes to showtime and skirts by can be hard to handle. As disappointing a winter as it has been for us in North Texas, I'm not throwing in the towel just yet!