Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Ntxw]

Yes yes, as a Cowboys fan the only thing worse than losing the super bowl is watching the eagles win the super bowl.

Back to your regular weather programming, or lackthereof

[South Texas Storms]

Not sure why there hasn't been much weather discussion in here lately. The pattern looks rather active over the next few weeks. Several cold fronts bringing decent chances for rain every few days.

Sure, it doesn't look like any major arctic outbreaks will be arriving over the next week, but it's crucial we get regular rains around here over the next few months to try to keep this summer from being absolutely brutal.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

FLY EAGLES FLY BABYYY!

[Brent]

Apparently an unpopular opinion but i was happy to see Tom Brady lose

But I'm also not a native and not a Cowboys fan like yall

Now back to whatever weather we have

[South Texas Storms]

0z GFS has widespread 1-3 inches of rain across much of TX over the next 2 weeks. Several disturbances dig into the SW US and then track northeastward across the region bringing decent rain chances every few days. Would love to see that verify.

[Ralph's Weather]

20s here this morning. Nice that we can get that with no significant surface high.
Forecast may not be the bitter cold we thought possible, but temps look below average almost every day for the next couple weeks. It is def not boring weather at the least and could turn pretty interesting.

[Jarodm12]

anyone looking at Wednesday the nam is showing temps hovering around 34 in dallas with precip falling and just to the northwest mixed precipitation

[Ntxw]

Mid 20s around DFW this morning.

I have to say I am a little disappointed at the Euro ensembles a few days ago showing little to no cold, hardly a freeze and pushing 80 at times and completely dry? Along with the parent for the 15 day runs. Misled us all.

[Yukon Cornelius]

20s here this morning. Nice that we can get that with no significant surface high.
Forecast may not be the bitter cold we thought possible, but temps look below average almost every day for the next couple weeks. It is def not boring weather at the least and could turn pretty interesting.

I agree. 15 here which really is surprising considering our forecasted low was 20.

[gboudx]

20s here this morning. Nice that we can get that with no significant surface high.
Forecast may not be the bitter cold we thought possible, but temps look below average almost every day for the next couple weeks. It is def not boring weather at the least and could turn pretty interesting.

NWS low for me was 30 as of last night. It’s 23.

[Ntxw]

To add the 3-5 day GFS forecast for DFW was hovering 40-45F for this morning's low. So it doesn't get praise either.

[Ntxw]

German (Icon) model looks interesting for Friday night and Saturday. 500h is similar to Euro but colder at the surface. Maybe freezing rain or sleet? Speculation but winter has already been done with

[srainhoutx]

It's currently -58F at Kugaaruk Airport, Nunavat in Northern Canada. Just to the N across Kansas in 10F to 11F this morning and another Arctic spoke rotating around the Polar Vortex heading S. My hunch is we continue to see significant model volatility into mid February. I believe that winter will throw a curveball around the last week of February into early March. Even our friends at StormGeo Twitted last week that we had at least 6 more weeks of winter. We have been advising folks down here in SE Texas that are getting anxious to plant to hold off a couple of more weeks to be safe. We are experiencing volatility in the 12 hour range here as well. Yesterday's high at IAH was forecast to be 76F and that was not even close.

[orangeblood]

It's currently -58F at Kugaaruk Airport, Nunavat in Northern Canada. Just to the N across Kansas in 10F to 11F this morning and another Arctic spoke rotating around the Polar Vortex heading S. My hunch is we continue to see significant model volatility into mid February. I believe that winter will throw a curveball around the last week of February into early March. Even our friends at StormGeo Twitted last week that we had at least 6 more weeks of winter. We have been advising folks down here in SE Texas that are getting anxious to plant to hold off a couple of more weeks to be safe. We are experiencing volatility in the 12 hour range here as well. Yesterday's high at IAH was forecast to be 76F and that was not even close.

Yep, agreed...the 2nd half of Feb is looking more promising particularly if the Strat Warm can do its dirty work, leading to blocking over Greenland and forcing the jet much further south across the US. AO/NAO Flip looks like it could occur around mid-month. Just keep the cold on our side of the Globe and we should have much to discuss around here - but that is my biggest concern, that once we get the favorable 500mb setup/MJO phase, the cold has already left the building. As you can see below, that concern is shown on the ensembles - cold has reconfigured itself over Asia and Europe

[Texas Snowman]

As a Cowboys fan, obviously don’t like the Eagles. But I certainly don’t like the Patriots either. I rooted for Austin Westlake QB Nick Foles last night, what a great story. Almost quit football, backup QB, now Super Bowl MVP.

There may be a lesson in there for winter weather enthusiasts.

[Texas Snowman]

@BigJoeBastardi — Sudden Stratwarm means wild ride into March , Winter has a long way to go Analog packages from FALL still looking pretty good SOI crash starting now ( BTW likely the first hit to the body of the NINA, modoki nino should develop fall/winter)

[TheProfessor]

A lot of rain on the 6z GFS for Texas. Hopefully the GEFS won't do to you what it's done to me(Showed 6+ inches of snow Inside 72 hours and now might be lucky to get 2 inches out of the storm.). Honestly I'd like the heavier rains the run shows to shif northwest into Ohio, but with my luck it'll shift Southeast leaving Texas and Ohio dry.

[Ntxw]

FWIW as Jarodm said, NAM has highs tomorrow struggling above 40 and light freezing rain in NW parts of the CWA

This would not be of concern if not for how cold it is this morning in bright sunshine still.

[Yukon Cornelius]

FWIW as Jarodm said, NAM has highs tomorrow struggling above 40 and light freezing rain in NW parts of the CWA

Our high tomorrow is forecasted at 40, which during cold and cool spells this winter its usually been 5-10 degrees colder. We also have a 50% chance of rain. If it does bust on the temps and with moisture available, it could possibly get a little interesting up this way.

[bubba hotep]

Major temp bust here this morning with a forecast low of 29 and it was 23 when I got up to go run. It is interesting that the GEFS and EPS are diverging pretty hard with how they are handling this current MJO pulse. The GEFS continues to show a stall in P7 while the EPS propagates into P8 but the EPS mean 500mb across N. America in the longer range doesn't seem to match up with the Feb MJO P8 analogs. In fact, the D15 EPS looks a lot more like Feb MJO P7 than it does P8.