Texas Winter 2017-2018

[bubba hotep]

Both the 18z 12k & 3k NAM show frozen precipitation across N. Texas but model generated soundings suggest otherwise.

[SouthernMet]

Literally yes. Depends on how quickly cold air advection moves south and how strong. Latest RGEM keeps temps in the 40’s in Fort Worth.. Doubt that, 18z NAM has temps at or just below freezing all day & NAM has done a decent job with the CAA so far.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Ive been interested in this for my area in NW Clay County. The forecast for tomorrow calls for a 50% of rain with a high in the low 40s, which as we've been seeing could be lower. The forecast also calls for the rain to continue into the evening hours with a low in the mid 20s. I guess it all depends on what the high ends up being as to if we get any type of frozen precip or change over.

The NAM keeps most everyone NW of a Abilene to Sherman line below freezing all day with DFW holding in the 30s all day tomorrow. The Canadian keeps the western N TX area in the 40s but above freezing and N TX is in the 60s. GFS and ICON are in between with near freezing temps in western N TX and 40s in N TX. For me in Tyler NAM shows 45, GFS/ICON 55 and Canadian 65. All but the ICON show decent rain for N TX mostly 0.5" to around 1", ICON is only a trace for DFW.

So, pretty much its a "wait and see" type event.

Or, in our case this winter, a "wait and NOT see" type event.

[South Texas Storms]

Happy National Weatherperson's Day! National Weatherperson's Day, is a holiday observed on February 5 primarily in the United States. It recognizes individuals in the fields of meteorology, weather forecasting and broadcast meteorology, as well as volunteer storm spotters and observers. It is observed on the birthday of John Jeffries, one of the United States' first weather observers who took daily measurements from 1774 to 1816.

[stantheboxman]

This is my first time to post. Have been lurking since 2005, when Rita caused the insane evacuation from Houston. Paying close attention to what was discussed on this site, most of my friends and my wife and I decided to ride it out. Actually found a golf course open the Friday after the evac.
It seems the volatility of the models is greater than in winter's past...or is that just me?
All in all, it would seem we should have a good handle on it the day after it happens.

[bubba hotep]

18z GFS continues to point to a very wet pattern developing over the next 2 weeks:

[stormlover2013]

it will keep changing, I think we see maybe 2 more shots of winter weather.

[TheProfessor]

Man those rains on the GFS make me jealous lol. I hope those heavy rains happen and expand towards Texas. A drought May and June is no fun.

[Ntxw]

True SSW happens by this weekend with Stratospheric vortex split. Followed alongside with the demise of the tropospheric vortex. The pattern isn't going to simply be "persistence of winter." New big dog in town with new toys



-SOI dive and correlation is living up to it's bargain to ring out qpf. Will the SSW play its part?

[Jarodm12]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 600&fh=NaN

Well I guess get ready for the winter weather 00z nan sticking to its guns and dubbling down time to get icy....

[SouthernMet]

Shocked at the crickets in here. NAM showing pretty significant ice accumulations across north texas tomorrow evening. Shows a widespread .5” for Johnson, Somerville, Bosque counties and .2” across Tarrant county. As many of us know, it doesn’t take much ice to knock down trees and power lines.

[Jarodm12]

Can you post your maps how much is Wylie Texas receiving?

[SGJ]

Can you post your maps how much is Wylie Texas receiving?

Are we supposed to get anything here in Wylie?
I can't speak for anyone else, but after the last time we were supposed to get ice and didn't, it was a big letdown on my end.
I don't know if anyone else feels that way. I'm not mad...just disillusioned, I guess.

[Brent]

I'll believe it when i see it

On the precip maps it looks mostly like NW DFW metro not over here I'm also Wylie

[SouthernMet]

According to the NAM, which was the only model to nail our last event, and or non event - http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php ... s_sc&dpdt=

Wylie would see .3” of ice which would warrant an ice storm warning.

[bubba hotep]

FWD coming on board.

[SGJ]

According to the NAM, which was the only model to nail our last event, and or non event - http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php ... s_sc&dpdt=

Wylie would see .3” of ice which would warrant an ice storm warning.

Thank you!!!!
I haven't seen any weather advisories or warnings being issued. Do you actually think that might happen? I have a feeling this will be a VERY big surprise to pretty much everyone, me included, if it comes to fruition.

[SGJ]

Bubba - What do you think about Wylie?

[bubba hotep]

00z 3K NAM Freezing Rain output:

[Brent]

McKinney gets 0.4" Wylie about a glaze if you take it verbatim

I think the worst would be northwest regardless