Texas Winter 2017-2018

[TheProfessor]

Advisories are up for Red river and north western counties. Had Denton and Collin counties been included the NWS map would have been near perfect from Texas to Maine.

[Ralph's Weather]

I am suprised their is no chatter about the latest Canadian model ice storm on sat here

Canadian has a terrible cold bias but the ICON and GFS aren't too far off on that potential event.

Which is why it was strange that yesterday the Canadian was trying to hang the front up across N TX today.

[Texas Snow]

FWD on this weekend:


As alluded to above, the models continue to show discrepancies
between the larger scale pattern and timing of the cold front over
the weekend. The GFS remains the slowest with the front while it
digs a strong disturbance along the West Coast. The ECMWF and
Canadian also have some type of West Coast trough, but have been
more consistent with this front, and have trended the forecast
towards their faster arrival time. This forecast reflects the
front arriving Friday night-Saturday with a reinforcing shot of
cold air Saturday night-Sunday. As to be expected, the ECMWF and
Canadian are very cold with their temperatures for this weekend,
but due to the uncertainty have hedged temperatures a little
warmer. If their model output temperatures become a more
reasonable possibility, forecasted temperatures will likely need
to be lowered by even as much as 10 degrees in some areas.

Rain will be possible as the front moves through the region on
Saturday. Unfortunately, the elevated front around 850 mb appears
to stall north of the region while it waits for more favorable
upper level dynamics to push it south. This set-up would likely
support an overrunning event until the 850 mb front gets a push
through the region on Sunday. Depending on how cold temperatures
are, there`s a potential for rain and/or freezing rain Saturday
through Sunday night. Confidence in this solution is still low,
but mentioned the wintry mix potential in the overnight hours
where temperatures are below 32 degrees; which is largely
confined to North Texas. If the models trend warmer with the
weekend temperatures and/or delay the front, the threat for wintry
precipitation will need to be removed or pushed back into the
early part of next week. On the other hand, if temperatures are
colder, a larger portion of the area may be under a threat for
freezing rain and significant impacts may become possible.

The potential for rain continues into the early part of next week
as all models show the West Coast upper level trough moving east
out of the Southwestern CONUS. This should induce good return flow
Monday or Tuesday, and the chance for rain looks to carry into
the middle of next week until the upper level trough crosses the
Plains.

JLDunn

[Ntxw]

I thought winter was over with and we were getting no freezes and push for 80? I guess the groundhog had other plans against y'all

We need to immortalize srain for sticking to his guns and stay the course, even when all models were hot and dry.

-27 today as the SOI continues to tank, helping to induce the wetter pattern

[Yukon Cornelius]

It’s currently 25 with clouds starting to move in. They’re in the process of treating the overpasses this morning. They've also lowered the forecasted high for today to stay below freezing.

[stormlover2013]

remember guys its Tuesday, models will come into agreement thursday or the early runs friday we will have a really good idea whats going to happen. I do think the CMC might be on to something!!!! it's has been pretty good sniffing out winter weather this year

[wxman57]

GFS still says "what front" this weekend for SE TX. ICON has our temps near freezing from Sunday afternoon through early Monday afternoon. GFS has our temps in the 70s the same time. Canadian has our temps in the upper 30s to low 40s Sunday afternoon through noon Monday. Euro is at mid 40s Sunday pm to low 50s by noon Monday.

GFS is weakest with the front, followed by the Euro, Canadian, and ICON. Given the nature of cold, dense air, I'd tend to toss out the GFS at the very least.

[orangeblood]

Pretty interesting evening commute across DFW this evening, if these temps were to verify...precip is falling through a very warm layer (plus 10 C) so I'd imagine it won't cause too much concern

[Ntxw]

Where temps are in the 20s is usually where accretion is most effective. Above 30 usually just gets the marginal elevated surfaces. Tricky forecast.

I am intrigued for this weekend. Freezing rain is no fun.

[bubba hotep]

Yea, the NAM continues to focus on the area to the SE of the current advisories. I bet FWD is nervously watching trends today.

[Ntxw]

Euro suites sending AO and NAO negative last week of Feb in response to SSW

[orangeblood]

Euro suites sending AO and NAO negative last week of Feb in response to SSW

Yeah, if a -AO/-NAO were to occur, the evidence is pretty overwhelming that majority of the US will see below normal temps in late Feb into March

[hamburgerman7070]

Euro suites sending AO and NAO negative last week of Feb in response to SSW

Ntxw, does it still look like a split vs a SSW? The euro had 67 degrees Celsius warming at 10mb which sounds like a lot to me. It may have been overdone

[Ntxw]

Euro suites sending AO and NAO negative last week of Feb in response to SSW

Ntxw, does it still look like a split vs a SSW? The euro had 67 degrees Celsius warming at 10mb which sounds like a lot to me. It may have been overdone

An SSW includes a split. This split is an SSW as zonal winds reverse. The reversal part defines a true SSW. The tropospheric response is for the polar/arctic jet to slow and sends cold to the mid latitudes via the -AO

[Portastorm]

Interesting tweet this morning from Judah Cohen:

[hamburgerman7070]

Euro suites sending AO and NAO negative last week of Feb in response to SSW

Ntxw, does it still look like a split vs a SSW? The euro had 67 degrees Celsius warming at 10mb which sounds like a lot to me. It may have been overdone

An SSW includes a split. This split is an SSW as zonal winds reverse. The reversal part defines a true SSW. The tropospheric response is for the polar/arctic jet to slow and sends cold to the mid latitudes via the -AO

Ntxw, how will this event be different than the minor warming's we had a lot of this winter? Also, how will this be different than the cold air we got from the epo so far this winter with the mjo getting into other phases also?

[orangeblood]

Latest NAM much slower with arctic front propagation later this week, more in line with the GFS and way behind the CMC...interesting trend as that model is typically much better with these shallow arctic fronts

[Ntxw]

Ntxw, does it still look like a split vs a SSW? The euro had 67 degrees Celsius warming at 10mb which sounds like a lot to me. It may have been overdone

An SSW includes a split. This split is an SSW as zonal winds reverse. The reversal part defines a true SSW. The tropospheric response is for the polar/arctic jet to slow and sends cold to the mid latitudes via the -AO

Ntxw, how will this event be different than the minor warming's we had a lot of this winter? Also, how will this be different than the cold air we got from the epo so far this winter with the mjo getting into other phases also?

We have not seen a true SSW since winter of 2012-2013 if Im not mistaken. Since then the NAO has averaged positive every winter month since. There has been bouts of it but no real Greenblock to clog up the pattern over North America. Hopefully the response this time will be just that and allow storms to crank as they cross the southern plains vs shearing out.

[bubba hotep]

The Euro EPS still isn't showing much in the way of cold risk for Texas even while showing -AO/NAO & MJO P8. In February, that should be a cold look for Texas.

Pretty big change on the Weeklies with it showing the eastern half of Texas with above normal precipitation. However, they are also relatively warm.

[orangeblood]

The Euro EPS still isn't showing much in the way of cold risk for Texas even while showing -AO/NAO & MJO P8. In February, that should be a cold look for Texas.

Pretty big change on the Weeklies with it showing the eastern half of Texas with above normal precipitation. However, they are also relatively warm.

I believe Feb MJO P8 is east coast centered...At this range, I would suspect none of these models to have a clue how to handle the Strat Warm at the 10mb level and how it propagates downward into the tropo