Texas Winter 2017-2018

[rwfromkansas]

So are any of these roads in dfw going to be dicey tomorrow? Or will they dry out when the rain stops?

Based on what I see here anyway, it should easily evaporate over metro proper. Even if it does become a bit icy it's not enough to cause issues since it will just sublimate away by morning unless we get some surprise late night event. But, temps are having a harder time getting into the 20s, which is when issues would finally arise.

[Brent]

So are any of these roads in dfw going to be dicey tomorrow? Or will they dry out when the rain stops?

I wouldnt expect major problems its possible there could be an icy bridge or something especially north but otherwise i dont expect a big deal

Most of the water should dry out from the wind

[hamburgerman7070]

Ntxw, we had thunder freezing rain here in jonesboro tonight. Got a lull in precip. Have a question. Why is the eps so warm in the extended with so many changes going on in the atmosphere moving forward? This split is supposed to happen Friday. Any ideas?

[Ntxw]

Ntxw, we had thunder freezing rain here in jonesboro tonight. Got a lull in precip. Have a question. Why is the eps so warm in the extended with so many changes going on in the atmosphere moving forward? This split is supposed to happen Friday. Any ideas?

Lets be honest here. The 12z Euro one week ago on 1/30 had DFW today at 75 degrees and bone dry. The winter ending posts were prevalent and the thread was literally breaking down. Last I checked this evening it is 33F at the airport with a thunderstorm or two, about a quarter of an inch so far. Take the EPS with a grain of salt.

Split is happening we just have to wait for the AO/NAO response. I don't really know if that benefits us completely if at all, but at least it is something new on the table

[Cerlin]

What are the chances of DFW getting surprise precipitation overnight?

[Gigem12]

What are the chances of DFW getting surprise precipitation overnight?

Looks like a final cell that ends in the cleburne area will move east north east through east Dallas and it will all be gone in the next 90 minutes.

[hamburgerman7070]

Ntxw, we had thunder freezing rain here in jonesboro tonight. Got a lull in precip. Have a question. Why is the eps so warm in the extended with so many changes going on in the atmosphere moving forward? This split is supposed to happen Friday. Any ideas?

Lets be honest here. The 12z Euro one week ago on 1/30 had DFW today at 75 degrees and bone dry. The winter ending posts were prevalent and the thread was literally breaking down. Last I checked this evening it is 33F at the airport with a thunderstorm or two, about a quarter of an inch so far. Take the EPS with a grain of salt.

Split is happening we just have to wait for the AO/NAO response. I don't really know if that benefits us completely if at all, but at least it is something new on the table

Only thing I can think of is the NAM has been positive for so long and now perhaps introduce a different regime with a -NAM. I guess the atmosphere isn't used to it. Not sure. I want us to slow the pattern down since it seems so progressive still

[Ntxw]

Only thing I can think of is the NAM has been positive for so long and now perhaps introduce a different regime with a -NAM. I guess the atmosphere isn't used to it. Not sure. I want us to slow the pattern down since it seems so progressive still

Yeah, we haven't had a bowling ball low just deepen and swing through the southern plains in a long time. Hard to get that with fast flow and a winding PV anomaly in NE Canada

[hamburgerman7070]

Only thing I can think of is the NAM has been positive for so long and now perhaps introduce a different regime with a -NAM. I guess the atmosphere isn't used to it. Not sure. I want us to slow the pattern down since it seems so progressive still

Yeah, we haven't had a bowling ball low just deepen and swing through the southern plains in a long time. Hard to get that with fast flow and a winding PV anomaly in NE Canada

I'm praying it gets demolished by this SSW possibility if that will help increase our chances for better pattern before we run out of time

[orangeblood]

Only thing I can think of is the NAM has been positive for so long and now perhaps introduce a different regime with a -NAM. I guess the atmosphere isn't used to it. Not sure. I want us to slow the pattern down since it seems so progressive still

Yeah, we haven't had a bowling ball low just deepen and swing through the southern plains in a long time. Hard to get that with fast flow and a winding PV anomaly in NE Canada

I'm praying it gets demolished by this SSW possibility if that will help increase our chances for better pattern before we run out of time

Yep, we better hope it gets demolished because this pattern seems unbreakable...I'm not falling for another SW Trough scenario until I see a Greenland block

[Brent]

well the fence felt icy... everything else wet wet wet

Can't get accumulation on the ground this winter in Dallas.

[Texas Snowman]

Terrible travel in Grayson County tonight on highway bridges. Roads are wet, bridges are a skating rink.

Multiple accidents according to Grayson County Scanner Twitter account, some with injuries, one possibly with a fatality.

Pretty significant icing on cars, trees, etc.

[Texas Snowman]

@KXIITV — 10:27 PM: With temperatures in the 20s over most of Texoma, ice on bridges will persist in many areas. Widespread ice is reported on bridges from Ada to Ardmore, east to Durant, Atoka, and south to Sherman and Anna. BE CAREFUL!!! #texomawx

[Brent]

Euro cancelled the winter storm this weekend(what a surprise... not)

so still massive questions whether there's even a storm period this weekend. GFS/CMC/Euro all say no at 0z

Euro is pretty zzzz in general, good thing it was so wrong last week.

[hamburgerman7070]

Orangeblood mentioned this earlier Tuesday, but he was concerned with the 500mb pattern supporting a non event, so I guess it's looking that way unless we get some changes.

[TheProfessor]

The stem definitely over performed here, I haven't measured, but I probably picked up 4-6" and snow is still falling. My county is under a level 2 snow emergency, which apparently hasn't happened since 2014.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Once it cleared off the temps dropped fast. When I went to bed last night at 11:00 the temp was 32. It’s currently 19.

[bubba hotep]

The stem definitely over performed here, I haven't measured, but I probably picked up 4-6" and snow is still falling. My county is under a level 2 snow emergency, which apparently hasn't happened since 2014.

We need pictures!

[Texas Snowman]

Two major accidents here in Denison on U.S. 75 within the last couple of hours. At least one had air evacuation. Bridges are still slick and hazardous here.

[srainhoutx]

A quick look ahead toward the weekend and next week, the progressive roller coaster pattern looks to continue with spokes of modified Arctic Air arriving every 3 to 4 days with a very noisy sub tropical jet overhead. For Coastal Texas into Louisiana I don't expect to see much if any sunshine throughout the next 8 days or so. The overnight Ensembles from the CPC suggest a pesky Upper trough near El Paso with embedded disturbance riding the sub tropical jet across Texas/Louisiana. Fog and chances of rain as well as some storms possible with each frontal passage (Sunday/next Wednesday/Following Saturday). I know I am sick of the dreary February weather, but from what I am seeing into the extended range there isn't much of a chance for this pesky pattern to relax as we head toward the end of February. The guidance suggest we enter Phase 8 with the MJO, a -AO/+PNA/-NOA regime appears to be growing in possibilities with general storminess and shots of entrenched cold air along and East of the Rockies developing post SSW event around Mid month.