Texas Winter 2017-2018

[orangeblood]

Latest NAM coming in much further southwest with the ULL, this is what we need for any chance at winter weather Sunday. Hopefully a trend

[gpsnowman]

Does the NAM have a good track record at this range? We are running out of time!!!

[Ralph's Weather]

I received over 3.5" of rain last night. Temps are holding in the mid 30s with thick cloud cover so far today.

Hoping that the SSW results in -AO/-NAO. That is typical of a SSW, but we will see. Been a long time since we have seen a real SSW event which is likely part of the reason we have seen very little Atlantic blocking over the past 5 or so years.

Wow!

You must have gotten trained on by storms? We had a couple of thunderstorms comes through quickly last night, but only 0.53" of liquid gold. At first I thought there was a trace of sleet in one of them, but with the amount of convection going on, and looking at column temps, it had to be hail. That distinct "chink" sound on the windows.

We had at least four rounds of heavy rain along with 1" hail at one point. It rain at least at a moderate rate from 2PM through 2AM.

[Ralph's Weather]

:uarrow: Does the NAM have a good track record at this range? We are running out of time!!!

I would wait until tomorrow to get a good idea. This is long range in NAM world. It does look pretty similar to the global models though so that gives it credence.

[orangeblood]

:uarrow: Does the NAM have a good track record at this range? We are running out of time!!!

It's pretty good in the upper levels at this range, it'll usually pick up on any subtle shifts first as its model output is completed before the others. Look for the 18z GFS, if it begins the same trend towards the four corners, things could get interesting for Sunday

[Brent]

The NAM can pick up trends but I'd want to see it closer in time(and other models go that way)...

there's always hope though

[gpsnowman]

Ralph'sweather, orangeblood, and Brent, thanks for the responses.

[orangeblood]

The NAM can pick up trends but I'd want to see it closer in time(and other models go that way)...

there's always hope though

GFS is trending further southwest as well, front is slower and thus keeps precip as all liquid but that's to be expected with GFS. The front should be colder than modeled, need to get upper level features to line up first...good first step

[Haris]

18z NAM,

Shows ice for N TX . Best of luck! Hopefully the trends are in our favor

[bubba hotep]

models seem to be back to the usual "east of us" for most of the rain coming up

Still need something to dig...

It doesn't seem to matter what the models show beyond D7, it appears that every system is going to trend to a more progressive look. Luckily, we scored decent rain with this last system but the Panhandle and back into the SW continue to hurt for any kind of precipitation.

So what do we need ... a negative NAO for Greenland blocking? A southeast CONUS ridge?

That's a good question. I'm not sure there is a good answer. The main thing that jumps out at me so far this winter is that the mean 500mb ridge has been shifted east over California vs the typical la nina setup with it positioned offshore out in the Pacific. One of the drivers of this might be the unusual Pacific SST configuration. There is a lot of warm water north of the ENSO regions and could be altering the background circulations. Another player might be reduced sea ice? Plenty of options to look at. So I'm not sure what breaks the cycle but the PV being parked over northern Hudson bay hasn't helped.

[bubba hotep]

The NAM can pick up trends but I'd want to see it closer in time(and other models go that way)...

there's always hope though

GFS is trending further southwest as well, front is slower and thus keeps precip as all liquid but that's to be expected with GFS. The front should be colder than modeled, need to get upper level features to line up first...good first step

12z EPS had precipitation farther back west into Texas than the op, indicating there are a fair number of members that probably look something like the 18z GFS.

[EnnisTx]

Ok everyone, I'm not quite sure why any of us would really be excited about ice? I know it's been a bad run on winter weather the past 3 years and I as much as anyone love snow, but not ice.

Guess I just don't understand why ice is exciting.

[Cpv17]

Ok everyone, I'm not quite sure why any of us would really be excited about ice? I know it's been a bad run on winter weather the past 3 years and I as much as anyone love snow, but not ice.

Guess I just don't understand why ice is exciting.

I believe because most people on here are weather enthusiasts and get excited about extreme weather events or something that’s rare and I believe an ice event fits that bill.

[downsouthman1]

Ok everyone, I'm not quite sure why any of us would really be excited about ice? I know it's been a bad run on winter weather the past 3 years and I as much as anyone love snow, but not ice.

Guess I just don't understand why ice is exciting.

I think people are just desperate and will take anything at this point.

[Brent]

Ok everyone, I'm not quite sure why any of us would really be excited about ice? I know it's been a bad run on winter weather the past 3 years and I as much as anyone love snow, but not ice.

Guess I just don't understand why ice is exciting.

I think people are just desperate and will take anything at this point.

Pretty much... Summer is coming closer by the day sadly

[EnnisTx]

Ok everyone, I'm not quite sure why any of us would really be excited about ice? I know it's been a bad run on winter weather the past 3 years and I as much as anyone love snow, but not ice.

Guess I just don't understand why ice is exciting.

I believe because most people on here are weather enthusiasts and get excited about extreme weather events or something that’s rare and I believe an ice event fits that bill.

I've been a weather enthusiast all my life and have seen way to many ice events to consider it a rare event.
It causes our first responders grief and not to mention the damage to infrastructure, personal property, vehicles and lives lost.

[downsouthman1]

Ok everyone, I'm not quite sure why any of us would really be excited about ice? I know it's been a bad run on winter weather the past 3 years and I as much as anyone love snow, but not ice.

Guess I just don't understand why ice is exciting.

I believe because most people on here are weather enthusiasts and get excited about extreme weather events or something that’s rare and I believe an ice event fits that bill.

I've been a weather enthusiast all my life and have seen way to many ice events to consider it a rare event.
It causes our first responders grief and not to mention the damage to infrastructure, personal property, vehicles and lives lost.

Yeah for real. The freezing rain/sleet even Austin had like a month ago took one life. And it wasn't even that much precip.

[Ralph's Weather]

Ok everyone, I'm not quite sure why any of us would really be excited about ice? I know it's been a bad run on winter weather the past 3 years and I as much as anyone love snow, but not ice.

Guess I just don't understand why ice is exciting.

I think people are just desperate and will take anything at this point.

Pretty much... Summer is coming closer by the day sadly

February is the winter eqivalant of September in hurricane season for Texas. We have available cold and troughs are digging further west. Sunday has lots of potential as does the next few weeks overall.

[Haris]

00z NAM looks very interesting for Austin

[Brent]

I think people are just desperate and will take anything at this point.

Pretty much... Summer is coming closer by the day sadly

February is the winter eqivalant of September in hurricane season for Texas. We have available cold and troughs are digging further west. Sunday has lots of potential as does the next few weeks overall.

I get that... hopefully the models are wrong with nothing happening really

heh NAM has some ice south of Dallas(again) on Sunday