Texas Winter 2017-2018

[South Texas Storms]

Man this thread sure is quiet after an interesting start to the 0z models. GFS and Canadian show a risk of light frozen precip across parts of north TX this weekend into next week.

[Ralph's Weather]

Down to 28 before midnight street a high of only 39. I'll be costly watching the weekend storm come together.

[hamburgerman7070]

I know its a ways out, but the gfs has a sleet/ice event from west tx east from there. Depending on enough cold air.

[srainhoutx]

I still see a tremendous amount of volatility in the various Ensemble schemes beyond day 5. The ECMWF EPS for example has completely flipped from the previous two runs suggesting a stout Alaska Ridge by day 7 that floods Western Canada and the Western 2/3rd of the United States with cold air. Also the EPS seems to be impacted instantly by the SSW Event.

The weekend/early next week sensible weather still looks extremely volatile to me, so expect continued model mayhem over the next 10 days or so as the guidance attempts to resolve the Northern Hemispheric Pattern reshuffle.

[South Texas Storms]

6z NAM is showing an area of freezing rain and sleet impacting portions of north and central TX on Sunday.

[Ntxw]

Just think runs ago EPS was again touting little to no freezes, pushing 80? It seems to falsely try and do that quite a few times this winter

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/961502711656124416

[orangeblood]

6z NAM is showing an area of freezing rain and sleet impacting portions of north and central TX on Sunday.

Yep, pretty impressive sleet band moving through DFW Sunday morning...soundings appear colder than a few days ago, pretty thick above freezing layer but definitely colder. The SREF model suite is pretty aggressive with QPF as well.... FTW NWS aren't buying the higher resolution models yet, they're just going with freezing drizzle event at this time. That could change if the S/W can deepen/ dig further southwest than the global models are currently showing

[orangeblood]

Just think runs ago EPS was again touting little to no freezes, pushing 80? It seems to falsely try and do that quite a few times this winter

Just look at its EPO forecasts over the past several runs...continually trending negative as we get closer. Huge volatility!!

[bubba hotep]

It's the long range NAM but it shows a pretty widespread freezing rain event for Texas. N. Texas is in the upper 20s during this loop with the freezing line sagging pretty far south and then back west into the Hill Country.

[Yukon Cornelius]

It's the long range NAM but it shows a pretty widespread freezing rain event for Texas. N. Texas is in the upper 20s during this loop with the freezing line sagging pretty far south and then back west into the Hill Country.

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/an ... 10-100.gif

I feel like everything NW of DFW has been cursed.

[bubba hotep]

6z NAM is showing an area of freezing rain and sleet impacting portions of north and central TX on Sunday.

Yep, pretty impressive sleet band moving through DFW Sunday morning...soundings appear colder than a few days ago, pretty thick above freezing layer but definitely colder. The SREF model suite is pretty aggressive with QPF as well.... FTW NWS aren't buying the higher resolution models yet, they're just going with freezing drizzle event at this time. That could change if the S/W can deepen/ dig further southwest than the global models are currently showing

The column is certainly cooler looking then this past event but it still has a pretty stout warm layer, on soundings the layer looks sufficiently deep and warm for DFW to see freezing rain but it wouldn't take much to switch sleet. The lower subfreezing level is much deeper than this last system, so freezing rain would be much more efficient. The SERF shows a mean of nearly 0.25" falling at DFW after the surface drops below freezing (That is after removing some members that have temps in the upper 50s while all other members are near or below freezing).

[bubba hotep]

It's always interesting to watch the local wx folks and see how they compare with the NWS. Dan Henry is going with a 40% chance of freezing rain/sleet on Sunday vs the NWS 20% to drying out.

[Ntxw]

12z NAM would be interesting for the hill country with 20s and precip. This run misses DFW to the S and East.

Caveat 72+ hr nam

[Haris]

12z NAM equals icemagedon (if I spelled that right lol) for ATX

[Ntxw]

12z NAM equals icemagedon (if I spelled that right lol) for ATX

Temps are marginal this particular run for Austin metro proper. But N and West is well in the 20s

[Ntxw]

To make forecast even tougher precip wise, moisture is streaming up from a baja system out of the blind spot in MX

You'll need to be within 36 hours to get a real insight on moisture plume

[SnowintheFalls]

It's the long range NAM but it shows a pretty widespread freezing rain event for Texas. N. Texas is in the upper 20s during this loop with the freezing line sagging pretty far south and then back west into the Hill Country.

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/an ... 10-100.gif

I feel like everything NW of DFW has been cursed.

It's more than a feeling these days. We are cursed up here!

[bubba hotep]

This is pretty interesting, after looking at some SSW event analogs it looks like the Southern Plains typically sees a post event 2 month temperature mean that is below normal with avg. to above avg. precipitation. That could really throw a wrench in those hot/dry analogs.

[Haris]

12z NAM equals icemagedon (if I spelled that right lol) for ATX

Temps are marginal this particular run for Austin metro proper. But N and West is well in the 20s

Certainly agree. 32 , 33 for ATX proper is too warm but suburbs could get some icing IF this verifies . I hope the NAM doesn’t trend warmer towards the gfs .

[Ntxw]

This is pretty interesting, after looking at some SSW event analogs it looks like the Southern Plains typically sees a post event 2 month temperature mean that is below normal with avg. to above avg. precipitation. That could really throw a wrench in those hot/dry analogs.

That is what I was thinking a bit earlier. With the recent MJO amplitude in the Pacific and SSW, I wonder if we are shifting into an El Nino like mode quicker than anticipated