Texas Winter 2017-2018

[bubba hotep]

This is pretty interesting, after looking at some SSW event analogs it looks like the Southern Plains typically sees a post event 2 month temperature mean that is below normal with avg. to above avg. precipitation. That could really throw a wrench in those hot/dry analogs.

That is what I was thinking a bit earlier. With the recent MJO amplitude in the Pacific and SSW, I wonder if we are shifting into an El Nino like mode quicker than anticipated

Models are in pretty good agreement on cranking up tropical activity in the WPAC (maybe our local expert will chime in) and extending the duration of the westerly wind burst event.

[Portastorm]

12z NAM equals icemagedon (if I spelled that right lol) for ATX

Temps are marginal this particular run for Austin metro proper. But N and West is well in the 20s

Certainly agree. 32 , 33 for ATX proper is too warm but suburbs could get some icing IF this verifies . I hope the NAM doesn’t trend warmer towards the gfs .

Considering that the NAM is still the outlier, I'm not too excited about the prospects at this time. Definitely worth monitoring though. SREF keeps anything freezing/frozen just north of Austin. EWX alluded to the possibility this morning in their AFD so they're watching as well.

[Brent]

12z NAM would be interesting for the hill country with 20s and precip. This run misses DFW to the S and East.

Caveat 72+ hr nam

now that I can believe.

[Ralph's Weather]

I hope that as this pattern establishes itself the Panhandle and W OK will start to get precip. The weekend system brings snow to CO, KS and NM and ice/rain to Central TX and points NE from there.

[Ntxw]

GFS is still meh for the weekend. Cold but barely a freeze. Lets see if shaving off 5-10F works again for the nth time

[Ntxw]

No shortage of cold blasts from GFS 12z. Still need to time something for snow per the run. It does appear models are trending to reflect SSW and away from warmth and dry

They are bias this winter of +EPO that largely gets muted within 7 days

[orangeblood]

No shortage of cold blasts from GFS 12z. Still need to time something for snow per the run. It does appear models are trending to reflect SSW and away from warmth and dry

They are bias this winter of +EPO that largely gets muted within 7 days

Arctic HP after Arctic HP...almost always a good sign for February

[Ntxw]

Some Atlantic help starting to show up with a decent Pacific. Preferably the Atlantic block would need to retrograde towards the Davis Straits to really clog up the flow over the US. Lets see if the blocky pattern trends greater and up in time

[orangeblood]

And the good news is with this depiction - it still leaves plenty of cold air on our side of the globe

[bubba hotep]

This run appears to have a better Pacific jet configuration resulting in better placed wave breaking.

[Brent]

80s on the Euro at the end of the run lol

[bubba hotep]

80s on the Euro at the end of the run lol

It's one thing to talk about a chaotic pattern and the models struggling but it is becoming pretty obvious that the Euro has a serious warm bias in the long range.

[Brent]

80s on the Euro at the end of the run lol

It's one thing to talk about a chaotic pattern and the models struggling but it is becoming pretty obvious that the Euro has a serious warm bias in the long range.

eventually those 80s will verify

but I agree

[Ntxw]

In large part because I think it sees the upper flow and zonal Pacific jet and keeps wanting to flood us with mild air. However at the surface the shallow cold says no. Example the freezing rain the other day. From a 75F forecast to 35F real time in a 5-7 day that is supposed to be it's wheelbarrow is just bad...

And that is not to give GFS credit either, it too is running 5-10F off during cold snaps even within 48 hours. Surface cold this season giving models fits.

[bubba hotep]

80s on the Euro at the end of the run lol

It's one thing to talk about a chaotic pattern and the models struggling but it is becoming pretty obvious that the Euro has a serious warm bias in the long range.

eventually those 80s will verify

but I agree

Never! First summer in DFW history with no highs above 80!

[bubba hotep]

GEFS is trending in the right direction, 5 day mean from 12z Monday vs 12z today:

12z Monday



12z today

[bubba hotep]

Wow, 18z NAM is kind of scary for DFW unless that is sleet. It looks like a band of 0.5" QPF right across the metroplex with temps in the 20s.

[JayDT]

I know i’m definitely in the minority here with what i’m about to say... But at this point i just want any type of winter weather, I don’t care what it is at this point..

[gpsnowman]

Wow, 18z NAM is kind of scary for DFW unless that is sleet. It looks like a band of 0.5" QPF right across the metroplex with temps in the 20s.

The plot thickens for the weekend. Oh how I wish that could be .5 QPF of snow!!

[srainhoutx]

Clouds have moved back North into SE Texas and it appears we have a very active, wet and changeable forecast ahead into next week. I see almost daily chances of some precipitation through at least the next 7 days with little if any sunshine with a very noisy sub tropical jet overhead.

The Updated CPC Day 8-14 Extended Outlook has some significant changes across the Central United States that likely will change day to day as the various computer schemes attempt to resolve the Polar Vortex Split and Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event early next week. This is a highly volatile pattern with a lot of uncertainty. So expected changes throughout the month as we near the end of February.