Texas Winter 2017-2018

Winter Weather Discussion

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WacoWx
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8101 Postby WacoWx » Thu Feb 08, 2018 4:09 pm

bubba hotep wrote:Wow, 18z NAM is kind of scary for DFW unless that is sleet. It looks like a band of 0.5" QPF right across the metroplex with temps in the 20s.


Whats the time frame on that?
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8102 Postby SnowintheFalls » Thu Feb 08, 2018 4:10 pm

JayDT wrote:I know i’m definitely in the minority here with what i’m about to say... But at this point i just want any type of winter weather, I don’t care what it is at this point..


It has been 772 days since our last WSW in Wichita County. Not to mention the drought conditions starting to take hold. I agree that at this point I would like any sort of winter weather up here.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8103 Postby losf1981 » Thu Feb 08, 2018 4:12 pm

SnowintheFalls wrote:
JayDT wrote:I know i’m definitely in the minority here with what i’m about to say... But at this point i just want any type of winter weather, I don’t care what it is at this point..


It has been 772 days since our last WSW in Wichita County. Not to mention the drought conditions starting to take hold. I agree that at this point I would like any sort of winter weather up here.


over two years? really?? wow.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8104 Postby Brent » Thu Feb 08, 2018 4:15 pm

JayDT wrote:I know i’m definitely in the minority here with what i’m about to say... But at this point i just want any type of winter weather, I don’t care what it is at this point..


I don't really care for freezing rain but I just want something better than an icy fence or windshield which is all its been in DFW. :lol:

WacoWx wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:Wow, 18z NAM is kind of scary for DFW unless that is sleet. It looks like a band of 0.5" QPF right across the metroplex with temps in the 20s.


Whats the time frame on that?


Sunday afternoon

actually a smaller band comes through Saturday Night with nothing in between then a big band Sunday afternoon
Last edited by Brent on Thu Feb 08, 2018 4:33 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8105 Postby Portastorm » Thu Feb 08, 2018 4:27 pm

:uarrow:

Not just the NAM ... check out the latest SREF model runs. It also shows a nasty wintry mix over DFW by Sunday morning.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8106 Postby bubba hotep » Thu Feb 08, 2018 4:37 pm

15z SREF holds steady with qpf around 0.25" at DFW after temps drop below freezing.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8107 Postby Brent » Thu Feb 08, 2018 5:25 pm

18z GFS for the first run I remember is showing a band of mixed precip near DFW Sunday afternoon too
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8108 Postby orangeblood » Thu Feb 08, 2018 5:26 pm

Extremely puzzled by the FTW NWS forecast for Sunday...less than 3 days from a potential fairly stout winter event and no mention of precip across DFW for Sunday - what am I missing ?
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8109 Postby SGJ » Thu Feb 08, 2018 5:27 pm

bubba hotep wrote:15z SREF holds steady with qpf around 0.25" at DFW after temps drop below freezing.


I liked this post, not because I understand it (I don't) but because it sounds like you are happy about it...so I'm taking it as good news that we might actually get some winter precip here in Collin County! Please correct me if I'm wrong. (I am mad at myself for believing yet again...but I just can't help myself!)
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8110 Postby Brent » Thu Feb 08, 2018 5:28 pm

orangeblood wrote:Extremely puzzled by the FTW NWS forecast for Sunday...less than 3 days from a potential fairly stout winter event and no mention of precip across DFW for Sunday - what am I missing ?


they've been burned so much this winter

watch that timeframe around Feb 16-19... I won't be here so it'll probably snow :roflmao:
Last edited by Brent on Thu Feb 08, 2018 5:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8111 Postby Ntxw » Thu Feb 08, 2018 5:30 pm

Major winter storm in week (of course) on GFS with snow in Amarillo! Winter trends south. Maybe 3 (even if the 32F and freezing rain) events in 2 weeks?!
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8112 Postby rwfromkansas » Thu Feb 08, 2018 5:35 pm

The good thing about sleet is it looks whiteish at least so if you have enough, it is similar to snow. I will take that. Snow is best, but sleet also means a greater chance of working from home, no school etc. unless it's a lot of snow.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8113 Postby orangeblood » Thu Feb 08, 2018 5:40 pm

Ntxw wrote:Major winter storm in week (of course) on GFS with snow in Amarillo! Winter trends south. Maybe 3 (even if the 32F and freezing rain) events in 2 weeks?!


Ah yes, the first cut-off low watch of the season appears on the horizon...has brought some intense model watching over the years on when it will eject out. As is most everything in our area, timing is critical
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8114 Postby bubba hotep » Thu Feb 08, 2018 6:05 pm

That cutoff appears to be real, it's showing up across the models by early next week. However, there seems to be some risk of it retrograding and pulling the rug out from under any big storm chances. However, there is a northern stream s/w that could time up nicely with the cutoff, if it kicks out just right. We need the cold front to be early enough to drop the temps but not so soon that it scours out moisture.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8115 Postby Ntxw » Thu Feb 08, 2018 8:40 pm

It looks like txdot is pre treating roads in NTX and not taking the chance. Good for them
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8116 Postby missygirl810 » Thu Feb 08, 2018 8:43 pm

Ntxw wrote:It looks like txdot is pre treating roads in NTX and not taking the chance. Good for them


I wonder where in NTX.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8117 Postby Brent » Thu Feb 08, 2018 8:53 pm

missygirl810 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:It looks like txdot is pre treating roads in NTX and not taking the chance. Good for them


I wonder where in NTX.


they were treating in Dallas for cold rains with no chance of ice/snow earlier in the winter
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8118 Postby bubba hotep » Thu Feb 08, 2018 8:59 pm

Euro Weeklies are once again showing a wet look for the eastern half of Texas on into Louisiana with temps slightly above normal but cooling as it moves through March.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8119 Postby dhweather » Thu Feb 08, 2018 9:21 pm

orangeblood wrote:Extremely puzzled by the FTW NWS forecast for Sunday...less than 3 days from a potential fairly stout winter event and no mention of precip across DFW for Sunday - what am I missing ?


TXDOT probably spent half a million dollars (or more) pretreating roads twice for didn't happen freezing drizzle. So they probably want to make REALLY sure before speaking those words.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8120 Postby dhweather » Thu Feb 08, 2018 9:22 pm

bubba hotep wrote:Euro Weeklies are once again showing a wet look for the eastern half of Texas on into Louisiana with temps slightly above normal but cooling as it moves through March.


Without looking, I can envision that rain line is somewhere around Canton or Tyler.
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