WPAC: SANBA - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

Up to 55 knots!

02W TWO 180211 0000 7.0N 135.8E WPAC 55 992

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Tropical Depression 30Y_02

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm
RSMC Initialized


Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 FEB 2018 Time : 003000 UTC
Lat : 7:05:10 N Lon : 137:14:42 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.2 / 998.8mb/ 32.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.1 2.2 2.3

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : +5.6C Cloud Region Temp : -35.0C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.29 ARC in LT GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.44 ARC in LT GRAY
at Lat: 6:16:48 N Lon: 136:38:23 E

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.2T/hour
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 9.2 degrees

FKPQ30 RJTD 101800
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20180210/1800Z
TCAC: TOKYO
TC: NN
NR: 01
PSN: N0650 E13900
MOV: W 15KT
C: 1002HPA
MAX WIND: 30KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 11/0000Z N0705 E13735
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 30KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 11/0600Z N0735 E13605
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 30KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 11/1200Z N0750 E13450
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 35KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 11/1800Z N0805 E13340
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 35KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20180211/0000Z =

[euro6208]

Latest fix has the center more west closer to the deep convection.

[NotoSans]

Doesn’t look like a T4.0 to me either. Visible imagery shows very clearly a center exposed to the east of the deep convection. 55kt is possibly way too high too.

[cycloneye]

Any new ASCAT pass?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Doesn’t look like a T4.0 to me either. Visible imagery shows very clearly a center exposed to the east of the deep convection. 55kt is possibly way too high too.

I think there could be 2 centers. This could be due to dry air? Not the shear, it's 10-20 kts

I kind of agree with the JTWC intensity forecast, not the T4.0. I'm seeing a typhoon at landfall. Also noting the WNW turn

But yes, thanks for letting us know hehe. Just to note, the JMA issued their own gale warning indicating a TS within 24 hrs. Not unlike some fanboy who brags about JTWC being the most popular and reliable in the world. I'm checking out the JMA estimates as well

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

[1900hurricane]

Any new ASCAT pass?

It's not impressive. The center is south of Yap, which lines up with visible imagery.

[CyclonicFury]

Any new ASCAT pass?

It's not impressive. The center is south of Yap, which lines up with visible imagery.

I'd estimate the intensity at about 35 kt with this ASCAT pass. 55 kt is too generous.

[Alyono]

JTWC is clearly fake news in this case. ASCAT posted above shows nothing even remotely close to 55 kts. Not sure how they are getting a Dvorak of 3.5 when the center has always clearly been well east of the convection

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W (TWO) WARNING
NR 10//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 02W (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF KOROR, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS RETAINED AN EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) FROM
THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A NOTCH FEATURE IN A 102131Z 37 GHZ SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTION
IN THE NORTH OF THE LLCC AND WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE
INTO THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS
HEDGED BELOW THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.0 (45
KNOTS) AND IS SUPPORTED BY A RECENT SATCON ESTIMATE OF 53 KNOTS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW (10-15
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS TRACKING THROUGH WARM (29-
30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM HAS STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS ENHANCED BY MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES. TS 02W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF SUB TROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
LOCATED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 02W IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF DEEP LAYERED SUB TROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD SOUTHERN PHILIPPINES THROUGH TAU
36. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR STEADY
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 36, EVENTUALLY REACHING A PEAK OF 75
KNOTS. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL AFTER
WHICH, LAND INTERACTION WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
AFTER LANDFALL, THE TRACK DIRECTION WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AS 02W
TRACKS ALONG AN EXTENSION OF THE SAME STR AND EXITS INTO THE SULU
SEA AFTER TAU 48 AT AROUND 65 KNOTS INTENSITY. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS
PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 02W WILL CROSS THE SULU SEA, AND PASS
SOUTH OF PUERTO PRINCESA. THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST AS IT ROUNDS THE EXTENSION OF THE STR MOVING TO THE EAST.
AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, MARGINAL CONDITIONS
WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN MAINTAINING TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH THROUGH TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG
AGREEMENT ON TRACK DIRECTION HOWEVER, SIGNIFICANT VARIATIONS IN
ALONG TRACK SPEED AFTER TAU 72 LENDS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM
FORECAST TRACK AND OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

JTWC following the mid-level circulation?

[HURAKAN]

The LLC is to the east of the MLC ... the current LLC may die out and another form under the strong MLC ... the JTWC's Dvorak estimate placed the center at 8N, 135.8E, obtaining a T4.0 ... that's wrong

[doomhaMwx]

Yep, that ASCAT pass near 01Z shows an intensity close to 35kts rather than 55kts. JMA much closer to reality than JTWC.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.2 2.4 2.4

[HURAKAN]

LLC is still trailing behind

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The LLC is to the east of the MLC ... the current LLC may die out and another form under the strong MLC ... the JTWC's Dvorak estimate placed the center at 8N, 135.8E, obtaining a T4.0 ... that's wrong

So a new LLC could form near the MLC? seems like 35-40 kts is just about right

[NotoSans]

Looks like JTWC finally wakes up.

TPPN10 PGTW 110338

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (SE OF YAP)

B. 11/0300Z

C. 7.04N

D. 136.76E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/12HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN SHEARED 50NM
FROM LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT YIELD 2.5. DBO
CONSTRAINTS. PREVIOUS INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE OVER ESTIMATED.
SUPPORTED BY 0058Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS WHICH INDICATES 35-40KT.
CORRECTIONS FOR PREVIOUS FIX BULLETINS WILL FOLLOW.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
11/0056Z 7.40N 135.75E MMHS


LOWE

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Looks like JTWC finally wakes up.

TPPN10 PGTW 110338

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (SE OF YAP)

B. 11/0300Z

C. 7.04N

D. 136.76E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/12HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN SHEARED 50NM
FROM LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT YIELD 2.5. DBO
CONSTRAINTS. PREVIOUS INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE OVER ESTIMATED.
SUPPORTED BY 0058Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS WHICH INDICATES 35-40KT.
CORRECTIONS FOR PREVIOUS FIX BULLETINS WILL FOLLOW.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
11/0056Z 7.40N 135.75E MMHS


LOWE

Too funny they must following storm2kers 1900hurricane Alyono HURAKAN and JMA now.

[euro6208]

527
WTPQ31 PGUM 110426
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM 02W ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP022018
200 PM ChST Sun Feb 11 2018

...TROPICAL STORM 02W HAS SLOWED DOWN AND WEAKENED AS IT APPROACHES
PALAU...

Changes with this advisory
--------------------------
The Tropical Storm Watch for Yap and Ngulu in Yap State is cancelled.

System center relocated and system has weakened.

Watches and warnings
--------------------
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Koror and Kayangel in
the Republic of Palau.

The Tropical Storm Watch for Yap and Ngulu in Yap State is cancelled.

Summary of 200 PM CHST...0300 UTC...Information
-----------------------------------------------
Location...6.8N 137.3E

About 300 miles west-southwest of Fais
265 miles southwest of Ulithi
195 miles south-southwest of Yap
105 miles south of Ngulu
200 miles east-southeast of Kayangel Palau
200 miles east of Koror Palau
685 miles southwest of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...40 mph
Present movement...west...280 degrees...at 12 mph.

Discussion and outlook
----------------------
At 200 PM CHST...0300 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm 02W was
located by satellite near Latitude 6.8 degrees North and Longitude
137.3 degrees East. Tropical Storm 02W was relocated to the
southeast of the previous position, and is now moving west at 14
mph. TS 02W is expected to maintain this movement for the next few
days. This motion will take 02W near Koror and south of Kayangel
this evening, and then toward Mindanao.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 40 mph as the center has
separated from the heavy rainshowers. Tropical Storm 02W is expected
to slowly intensify over the next couple days. Tropical storm force
winds extend outward up to 100 miles northeast of the center and 60
miles southwest of the center.

Next advisory
-------------
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 500 PM this afternoon, followed by the next scheduled
advisory at 800 PM this evening.

$$

Kleeschulte