Texas Winter 2017-2018

Winter Weather Discussion

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weatherdude1108
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8401 Postby weatherdude1108 » Sun Feb 11, 2018 1:51 pm

Had a thundershower leaving church. It was 31 degrees. Received a coating of ice on my wife's car during drive home.
:eek: :froze:

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Last edited by weatherdude1108 on Sun Feb 11, 2018 2:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8402 Postby Ntxw » Sun Feb 11, 2018 1:53 pm

Brent wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:The Euro is rapidly reconsolidating the TPV over northern Hudson Bay and it is shearing out the cutoff into a mostly dry positive tilted trough... Where have we seen that before?


yup dry cold on the Euro. Dejavu


The same Euro that showed basically no freeze this weekend? If it is not showing 80s 7+ days out we toss :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8403 Postby Haris » Sun Feb 11, 2018 1:55 pm

Thunder sleet and freezing rain along with liquid rain in ATX!
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8404 Postby WeatherDuck » Sun Feb 11, 2018 1:57 pm

Thundershower and 32° in Taylor.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8405 Postby OKMet83 » Sun Feb 11, 2018 1:58 pm

12z run of the German model shows nearly same as GFS = Trouble esp over portions of Oklahoma.... Time will tell! :) Regardless we need any rain we can get!
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8406 Postby WeatherDuck » Sun Feb 11, 2018 2:04 pm

Dropped to 31° in Taylor. A little sleet mixed with the light rain and thunder.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8407 Postby bubba hotep » Sun Feb 11, 2018 2:27 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Brent wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:The Euro is rapidly reconsolidating the TPV over northern Hudson Bay and it is shearing out the cutoff into a mostly dry positive tilted trough... Where have we seen that before?


yup dry cold on the Euro. Dejavu


The same Euro that showed basically no freeze this weekend? If it is not showing 80s 7+ days out we toss :lol:


I'm not doubting that things will change but busting on surface temps is a bit different than busting on the 500mb pattern. The Euro is pretty solid as you near 5 days with 500mb and it is losing the cutoff by D4.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8408 Postby Ntxw » Sun Feb 11, 2018 2:30 pm

bubba hotep wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
Brent wrote:
yup dry cold on the Euro. Dejavu


The same Euro that showed basically no freeze this weekend? If it is not showing 80s 7+ days out we toss :lol:


I'm not doubting that things will change but busting on surface temps is a bit different than busting on the 500mb pattern. The Euro is pretty solid as you near 5 days with 500mb and it is losing the cutoff by D4.


There is going to be some volatility beyond 5 days in all the guidance as the AO/NAO shifts the stale pattern. Will the SSW benefit us? I don't know but I don't expect the players to be the same vs prior

Euro at 500mb from last Sunday for today

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Today

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Overall I'd say an ok 500mb being range. But sensible weather quite different
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8409 Postby PineyWoods » Sun Feb 11, 2018 2:39 pm

Raining with some sleet here in Tyler
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8410 Postby Portastorm » Sun Feb 11, 2018 2:50 pm

Today in Austin we’ve already had the following weather:

Freezing drizzle
Drizzle
Showers
Thunderstorm
Hail
Sleet

A few degrees colder and we would have had chaos here but thankfully temps were a smidge too warm. Roads and bridges just wet for the most part.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8411 Postby Ntxw » Sun Feb 11, 2018 2:50 pm

:uarrow: I want to point out again, DFW may have largely missed this sleet "event" but if you go back some pages before February started this thread got heated because folks were declaring winter basically over. Why? Some Euro and Weekly/EPS runs at 500mb declaring it over...it is wintering at the PWC Hq today! Funny :lol:

Portastorm is witness
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8412 Postby downsouthman1 » Sun Feb 11, 2018 2:57 pm

Ntxw wrote::uarrow: I want to point out again, DFW may have largely missed this sleet "event" but if you go back some pages before February started this thread got heated because folks were declaring winter basically over. Why? Some Euro and Weekly/EPS runs at 500mb declaring it over...it is wintering at the PWC Hq today! Funny :lol:

Portastorm is witness

Yeah just about 15 minutes ago, we had heavy rain with small hail here at 32 degrees with another batch hot on its heels.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8413 Postby bubba hotep » Sun Feb 11, 2018 3:05 pm

It is pretty crazy but every single model missed a line of showers and storms forming and pushing east across Texas while dropping sleet and hail :double:

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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8414 Postby Brent » Sun Feb 11, 2018 3:18 pm

Austin had the best winter in Texas this year :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8415 Postby PineyWoods » Sun Feb 11, 2018 3:20 pm

We had thunder here in Tyler 5 minutes ago, now it rain and sleet and 30°.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8416 Postby bubba hotep » Sun Feb 11, 2018 3:28 pm

The 12z Euro EPS continues to show an unsettled pattern across Texas with a big western trough. Concerns certainly are growing for a significant ice storm across the Southern Plains as the SE ridge keeps deep cold air out but shallow cold air is pretty relentless with systems constantly kicking out of the SW.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8417 Postby Ralph's Weather » Sun Feb 11, 2018 3:33 pm

28 with a steady sleet freezing rain mix that has been heavy at times. Thankfully roads are just wet so far. Another day this winter that will have a sub freezing high. Last year on this day it was in the 80s and 90s with pushing 100 in OK.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8418 Postby PineyWoods » Sun Feb 11, 2018 3:41 pm

I know this may sound crazy but it looks like it is also snow mixed in with the sleet. Not much but some. I didn't think the column was gonna be that cold high enough.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8419 Postby orangeblood » Sun Feb 11, 2018 3:42 pm

bubba hotep wrote:The 12z Euro EPS continues to show an unsettled pattern across Texas with a big western trough. Concerns certainly are growing for a significant ice storm across the Southern Plains as the SE ridge keeps deep cold air out but shallow cold air is pretty relentless with systems constantly kicking out of the SW.


Yep, some pretty heavy hitters showing significant precip this Friday/Saturday..some under the frozem variety and numerous borderline.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8420 Postby Haris » Sun Feb 11, 2018 3:59 pm

Portastorm wrote:Today in Austin we’ve already had the following weather:

Freezing drizzle
Drizzle
Showers
Thunderstorm
Hail
Sleet

A few degrees colder and we would have had chaos here but thankfully temps were a smidge too warm. Roads and bridges just wet for the most part.


Was crazy! Add sunshine now! Generally roads were fine but loop 360 bridge was iced over along with highway 183 near domain . Their were 2 wrecks ice related on 2244 in W ATX. Majority city fine but some icy patches were there. Temps in upper 30s now.
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