Ntxw wrote:Historical odds do not favor El Nino. More neutral. However, historical odds is just that and a probability. Whether there is a Nino or not is dependent on the wind and ocean stresses that occur in the Pacific. Last year the window was very small and the odds are daunting. It's just difficult to get another Nino so quickly after a Super.
There is a Nino after the 2nd year Nina, 2009-2010 so it's not as unforgiving as a year ago, from a probability standpoint.
It's just one stepping stone. We need a WWB in March most likely to follow it up.
1972-1973 was another after two years of Nina, post another Nino.
Looks like we're going to have a March WWB. I'm interested to see what happens in April. This month pretty much negatively affected the 2012/2014/2017 Nino chances.