2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
- CyclonicFury
- Category 5
- Posts: 1977
- Age: 25
- Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
- Location: NC
- Contact:
Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability
I personally think warm-neutral is the most likely ENSO for this season. There are some warm anomalies in the subsurface, but they are not that strong. The ECMWF ENSO model also has a high bias. I am not entirely sold on the idea of El Niño yet. Another La Niña year seems unlikely though.
The cooler than normal MDR SSTs is not surprising to me, as it has happened in nearly every winter since 2014. Last year we went from cooler than normal MDR SSTs in April to near record MDR SSTs in June. We will need to watch the evolution of MDR SSTs over the next few months, as I think the very warm MDR SSTs were mainly responsible for 2017's three MDR major hurricanes.
Looks like the 2018 season will be another tricky forecast.
The cooler than normal MDR SSTs is not surprising to me, as it has happened in nearly every winter since 2014. Last year we went from cooler than normal MDR SSTs in April to near record MDR SSTs in June. We will need to watch the evolution of MDR SSTs over the next few months, as I think the very warm MDR SSTs were mainly responsible for 2017's three MDR major hurricanes.
Looks like the 2018 season will be another tricky forecast.
4 likes
NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.
- TheStormExpert
- Category 5
- Posts: 8487
- Age: 30
- Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
- Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL
Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability
Anyone still have last years January ASO MSLP Euro Outlook? The ones NDG posted early on in the 2017 indicators thread aren’t showing anymore.
3 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139593
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability
The +NAO has been dominating the Atlantic for almost 2 months and that is why the MDR has cooled a bit but a negative index will come soon to warm things again.
1 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 192
- Age: 40
- Joined: Tue Jan 18, 2011 6:16 pm
- Location: Anguilla,Leeward Islands 18.3N 63.0W
Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability
Well,I was looking at the NAO chart on the first page and it seems like it is forecasted to go negative,if I'm reading it right, about a 50% chance around the 24th of February?
If so, will the seas for the NE Caribbean calm down from being so rough recently?
How long is the negative NAO expected to last,if it does happen?
If so, will the seas for the NE Caribbean calm down from being so rough recently?
How long is the negative NAO expected to last,if it does happen?
1 likes
- NotSparta
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 1660
- Age: 22
- Joined: Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:24 am
- Location: Naples, FL
- Contact:
Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability
HurricaneFan wrote:Well,I was looking at the NAO chart on the first page and it seems like it is forecasted to go negative,if I'm reading it right, about a 50% chance around the 24th of February?
If so, will the seas for the NE Caribbean calm down from being so rough recently?
How long is the negative NAO expected to last,if it does happen?
Yes, it will slow the trades and reduce the negative anomalies. With the slower wind, the seas should calm. It looks like a long term one, but I'm not 100% sure there.
0 likes
This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for official tropical analysis and advisories.
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139593
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
NAO Is going to go down fast to negative by the end of Febuary going into March.
Kingarabian,I realized that MSLP ECMWF graphic was for 2017,my bad. No new update yet for 2018 MJJ but will come in the next few days.
Kingarabian,I realized that MSLP ECMWF graphic was for 2017,my bad. No new update yet for 2018 MJJ but will come in the next few days.
2 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
EC shows even higher pressures than last year for MJJ, but not as low for the EPAC
1 likes
- CyclonicFury
- Category 5
- Posts: 1977
- Age: 25
- Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
- Location: NC
- Contact:
Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
Alyono wrote:EC shows even higher pressures than last year for MJJ, but not as low for the EPAC
Has there ever been a year when ECMWF did NOT show high pressures in the Atlantic? Seems to have a high bias with Atlantic SLP as well as ENSO.
1 likes
NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15461
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
CyclonicFury wrote:Alyono wrote:EC shows even higher pressures than last year for MJJ, but not as low for the EPAC
Has there ever been a year when ECMWF did NOT show high pressures in the Atlantic? Seems to have a high bias with Atlantic SLP as well as ENSO.
From what I seen in the past few years, higher pressures over the Atlantic and El Nino forecast go hand in hand in the seasonal outlook for the Euro. The Euro will show higher pressures (unfavorable conditions) in the Atlantic if it's forecasting a robust El Nino. So as the months progress, if an El Nino is not likely, it starts to drop the pressures and show favorable conditions in the Altantic.
2 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139593
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
@RyanMaue
A strongly negative NAO or North Atlantic Oscillation is now consistently showing in ECMWF 7-10 day forecasts
My chart shows evolution of NAO index in successive forecasts.
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/965131042804981760
A strongly negative NAO or North Atlantic Oscillation is now consistently showing in ECMWF 7-10 day forecasts
My chart shows evolution of NAO index in successive forecasts.
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/965131042804981760
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- CyclonicFury
- Category 5
- Posts: 1977
- Age: 25
- Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
- Location: NC
- Contact:
Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
This -NAO should warm up the MDR quite a bit, possibly to above average levels. Question is, will it persist, or could we see a +NAO phase before hurricane season that cools the MDR back off? I'm skeptical we'll see a cold MDR for hurricane season, that has been very rare since 1995 (with some notable exceptions being 2000, 2007, and 2014). As long as El Nino doesn't form the Atlantic should be at least active in terms of storm numbers. ENSO is the wild card here. I'm not thinking we will see anything like 1997 or 2015, but a third La Nina is also unlikely with the current setup and climatology. I'd say warm-neutral ENSO with a warmer than normal (but slightly cooler than last year) MDR is the most probable scenario.
3 likes
NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139593
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
@TropicalTidbits
Been a while since I've seen a -NAO pattern like this on the ensemble forecasts. Fun winter implications, but would also impact Atlantic SST profile depending on duration.
https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/965327140572028928
Look how the MDR is on Febuary 18th.
But the Central SubTropical Atlantic is very warm.
Been a while since I've seen a -NAO pattern like this on the ensemble forecasts. Fun winter implications, but would also impact Atlantic SST profile depending on duration.
https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/965327140572028928
Look how the MDR is on Febuary 18th.
But the Central SubTropical Atlantic is very warm.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- SFLcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9626
- Age: 46
- Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
- Location: Lake Worth Florida
Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
Hey Luis, its highly likely the tropical Atl will warm up once again in the coming months but that look you just posted above spells inactive season.
2 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139593
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
SFLcane wrote:Hey Luis, its highly likely the tropical Atl will warm up once again in the coming months but that look you just posted above spells inactive season.
Is still early to say for sure how the sst's and anomalies will be when June 1 comes as the ups and downs swings occur.We will have to wait and see how it evolves in the next 3 of months to have a more clear picture.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139593
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
Does anyone has a daily graphic chart of the important Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index? I would like to have it on the first post with the other graphics.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139593
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
@MJVentrice
According to our definition of the NAO, models are calling for the all-time strongest -NAO value observed since our archive (beginning in 1980). The record low value since 1980 is from February 2006 (-2.77sigma). We are seeing models call for -3sigma during late February 2018.
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/966316156071051264
According to our definition of the NAO, models are calling for the all-time strongest -NAO value observed since our archive (beginning in 1980). The record low value since 1980 is from February 2006 (-2.77sigma). We are seeing models call for -3sigma during late February 2018.
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/966316156071051264
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22505
- Age: 66
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
Comparing current SSTs throughout the Atlantic and the East Pacific, the best analog I can come up with is 2014, with 1994 as a secondary analog. Both were quiet seasons, with 8 named storms in 2014 and only 7 in 1994. Of course, SSTs are not the only factor to consider.
4 likes
- TheStormExpert
- Category 5
- Posts: 8487
- Age: 30
- Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
- Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL
Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
I know it’s only late February but it seems that as we progress closer and closer to the 2018 season that it may becoming increasingly likely that this season won’t be hyperactive. I’m not ready to buy into the 2014 analog just yet as that season was only aided by the MJO and that’s why we saw such a weird ratio of hurricanes to named storms. 2007 anyone?
2 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.
- CyclonicFury
- Category 5
- Posts: 1977
- Age: 25
- Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
- Location: NC
- Contact:
Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
With the upcoming strong -NAO, the cold MDR anomalies could flip completely. It has been typical in recent winters to have a spring -NAO flip the Atlantic SST profile and 2018 may be similar.
2 likes
NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.
- StruThiO
- Category 3
- Posts: 821
- Age: 24
- Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:51 am
- Location: Currently Portland, OR. Raised in Jax, FL.
Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
CyclonicFury wrote:With the upcoming strong -NAO, the cold MDR anomalies could flip completely. It has been typical in recent winters to have a spring -NAO flip the Atlantic SST profile and 2018 may be similar.
is the -NAO expected to persist for very long?
1 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: Cpv17, duilaslol, IsabelaWeather, kenayers, kevin, South Texas Storms, Sps123, StormPyrate, StormWeather, wwizard and 101 guests