National Weather Service San Juan PR
540 AM AST Mon Feb 12 2018
.SYNOPSIS...A mainly fair and stable weather pattern will continue
to prevail across the forecast area with some passing showers
possible. Breezy.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday...
A mid level ridge will hold north of the local area for the next few
days, limiting the development of deep convection across the local
islands. There is also a strong surface high pressure the central
Atlantic, causing strong ENE winds across the local area today and
on Tuesday, decreasing slightly on Wednesday. The strong winds today
will likely be between 15 and 20 MPH with areas of occasional 25
MPH, especially over the local waters. The wind gusts could reach 35
MPH briefly. This strong wind will cause the marine conditions to
continue to be hazardous and also, once combined with the dry air
moving in, it increased the fire danger across the southeast coastal
plains, and therefore a Red Flag Warning was issued for that area.
The local weather is expected to be generally guided by brief
showers embedded in the trades with some showers developing over PR
due to local effects, but the amounts are expected to be relatively
minimal. The overall moisture is expected to be rather low today,
with precipitable water values expected to be near 1 inch or
slightly above, depending on the exact area; which is drier than
normal, near the 25th percentile for this time of year. Similar
precipitable water values expected on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Therefore, the rainfall expected, although it may cover some areas
across the north and eastern PR as well as the interior and western
sections in the afternoons, the amounts and duration are both not
expected to be too significant. But, it will be breezy and the fire
danger will continue to increase across the southern coastal plains
through the early part of this week. The marine and surf zone
conditions will also be hazardous due to this wind.
.LONG TERM...Thursday through Tuesday...
A mid level ridge will hold across the forecast area much of the
forecast period weakening early next week as a broad upper level
trough develops across the central Atlantic and amplifies into the
eastern Caribbean. High pressure systems north of the area will
continue to yield a moderate to fresh east northeast wind flow
during the next several days. Latest guidance continues to
indicate patches of low level moisture moving across the forecast
area at times through the forecast cycle. Therefore, continue to
expect a generally fair and stable weather pattern with some
passing showers across north and east Puerto Rico as well Vieques,
Culebra, and the USVI particularly in the late evening and early
morning hours. Seasonable temperatures to continue.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR conds expected across the local terminals with VCSH
expected in SCT SHRA through the forecast period. Winds from the ENE
at around 15 to 20KT with higher gusts and sea breeze variations at
TJPS until about 12/23Z. Winds decreasing slightly after 13/02Z.
&&
.MARINE...Winds and seas will continue to increase slightly
throughout the day. A few gusts may be as high as 35 kt. A high
risk of rip currents will be common on most beaches. A high surf
advisory will remain in effect through Tuesday. Winds and seas
will begin to diminish around mid week, but small craft advisories
will continue in most zones through the end of the week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 74 83 74 / 40 40 40 40
STT 84 73 84 73 / 40 30 30 20