#46 Postby chaser1 » Thu Feb 22, 2018 1:05 pm
TheStormExpert wrote::uarrow: Here’s the March
2017 Euro Pressure Outlook for the JAS period for anyone looking to see how thinks were shaping up last year.
Kinda make one want to laugh (from a misguided data perspective, certainly NOT given the very contrary results of the 2017 Atlantic Season destruction and fatalities). I'll give all the kudos to the EURO for its mid range modeling, but I just don't give much credence to any of the Global's anymore when viewing their long long long range projections. As for present ENSO and leaning toward possible NINO projection, I'd only buy into the belief that ENSO temps will likely wane toward less cool and near average. Even if ENSO continues to gradually track into the warm bias a little, assuming that we do not see a significant spike before August then I would not anticipate any significant impact to Atlantic cyclone development. Remember this too, there does seem to be a several week to month delay from appreciable ENSO conditions to affect the Atlantic. Even if we were to see a more significant El Nino begin to develop Sept/October, I don't believe the Atlantic would feel significant impact until possibly mid October/November. Just my thoughts, anyway.
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