Texas Winter 2017-2018

[TheProfessor]

The heart of Severe weather season is fast approaching. One must always be prepared for severe weather. I was doing a bit of research, and some orf North Texas' prominent outbreaks the past 18 years have been kind of sneaky. The March 28 event wasn't seen as a big tornado risk due to light surface winds and only moderate CAPE. However, there were 50-60 kt winds just above the surface and a jet streak at the 300mb level. That combined with enough directional turning is what catapulted my interest in weather. The April 3rd 2012 and May 15 2013 local outbreaks were somewhat similar. Both of those also didn't have so much of a slight risk until 16z of the same day. Many people had already gone to work by then and probably weren't aware of the severe risk(2012 specifically.)

[bubba hotep]

The heart of Severe weather season is fast approaching. One must always be prepared for severe weather. I was doing a bit of research, and some orf North Texas' prominent outbreaks the past 18 years have been kind of sneaky. The March 28 event wasn't seen as a big tornado risk due to light surface winds and only moderate CAPE. However, there were 50-60 kt winds just above the surface and a jet streak at the 300mb level. That combined with enough directional turning is what catapulted my interest in weather. The April 3rd 2012 and May 15 2013 local outbreaks were somewhat similar. Both of those also didn't have so much of a slight risk until 16z of the same day. Many people had already gone to work by then and probably weren't aware of the severe risk(2012 specifically.)

Saturday could be sneaky but the timing is probably too fast for DFW to be concerned. However, if things slow down a few hours then the risk would go up. I would expect to see upgrades to the slight over the next couple of days for Arkansas & N. Louisiana.

[South Texas Storms]

How are you able to get those zoomed in state views? I can't find anything like that on the SPC site.

[bubba hotep]

:uarrow:
How are you able to get those zoomed in state views? I can't find anything like that on the SPC site.

This should work http://www.spc.noaa.gov/public/state/images/

[South Texas Storms]

:uarrow:
How are you able to get those zoomed in state views? I can't find anything like that on the SPC site.

This should work http://www.spc.noaa.gov/public/state/images/

Thanks! I love being able to zoom in those maps.

[weatherdude1108]

Something I just wanted to to tell y'all,

I am only 17 years old

But, I have been reading and studying weather since 4 so I know a lot for my age. And believe it or not, before jan 2017, I didnt even know that computer models existed besides the rpm. And now, I have mastered them. But I want to thank mister porta for that. He has taught me so much via twitter DM's . LOL. He is a smart fella along with many others are on this forum .
Edit: But with that said, please dont treat my like a teen or young person . I have been called by many an "old soul still young" lol. Please consider my posts . Thanks

Hi there. Welcome!

Your introduction has reminded me of my own weather stories. I have always been fascinated with how the weather interacts with things in my surroundings. I remember being in first grade outside during a recess period, seeing the trees swaying and bending in the wind. I mentioned it to the teacher. She said, "Yeah, it's Spring time, tornado season." I recall it was chilly out, and I think a front had just blown in. Her comment made me think that the trees blowing meant a tornado was causing it.lol

But it wasn't until I was 12 that I really became interested in weather, when it snowed almost 14 inches in San Antonio (where I lived at the time), unheard of down there, and a new record set at the time. That experience catapulted me into a keen interest in weather, to the point that I became known for it in my circle of family and friends. I would watch the Weather Channel (back in the 80s when it used to be good) with my brother, and we'd check the forecasts, and outside.

I went to college and got my minor in Atmospheric Science, only because I was not good enough at math to pursue a meteorology major. So I majored in Geoscience (part of same earth science "umbrella"), with a minor in Atmospheric Science. I love the science and physics principles of weather, and get how most of that works. I could just never apply the math to the science and physics parts.lol I still get questions from my wife, family, friends, coworkers, etc. on what the weather will be like, whenever.

I got introduced to this site from a coworker, who said this site was "right up my alley" as he put it.lol
There are a lot of great posters on here, from avid weather enthusiasts to professional meterologists, and everyone in between. Welcome aboard, sir!

Thank you sir! Great story ! My’n is way more complicated and kinda weird .

I didn’t move to Austin TX until I was 5 . I was born in Rhode Island, but granted, only lived there until I was 3 so that didn’t do anything related to my WX passion. Between when I was 3-5 , I was in California. Weather there is fairly boring and still , no interest in WX. At age 5, I moved to Austin, so that’s like (2003 I think) . First couple years, not that much interest. It began from Ice Storm 07’ I recall. That ice storm was crazy! I began to read about weather and purchase encyclopedias. What BEGAN the REAL journey was the March 2010 hail storm ... Baseball Size hail fell in North Austin. After that, I got sooo facinated and I started doing my own forecasts and really expanded my knowledge BUT THAT ALSO was a trauma for me! Every time a thunderstorm came after that day, I used to sweat so badly , be under the covers for HOURS and have headphones on at max volume . I had a mental issue. That issue /phobia went slowly when I was around 14 (2014) and growing up. Now, I like severe weather and all types of weather frankly! Over the last 2 years, I have started making lots of relationships with several meteorologists around town and started joining forums etc... Now, I make my own professional forecasts, blog over the weather and have a fast growing twitter account for forecasts. It’s so crazy that a traumatic experience and major phobia simultaneously sparked my passion for meteorology. It’s weird. I know LOL

That's awesome! I haven't gone as far as you with the professional forecasting blogs, nor posting anything to YouTube. I love technology, and always used to keep up with the latest and greatest, but then it started developing so fast, I gave up trying to keep up. I'm fortunate to have seen what it was like when touch typewriters were around, then green monitor computers in elementary school, to full-fledged internet/cell phone/flip phone/smart phones after college. Gotten to see the birth of modern technology. Anyway.

I, too remember the ice storm in '07. We were closed for about four days at work. We had gotten a new dog. She would not do her business for a couple days on the ice, refused to go on ice.lol Also remember the hail storm we got in 2009 in Cedar Park. We got ping pong to golf ball size hail. We had gotten the yard mulched and fresh crushed granite put down by our yard guy the day before. The roses all had buds on them. The next day when it hit, it stripped ALL the roses and trees, and left a covered mess all over the yard. Everyone on our street had to get a new roof. My next door neighbor even had her windows cracked. Mine were spared. I have solar screens, which were tested against bowling balls apparently.lol

I had seen it hail before, but NOT like THAT. That freaked me out! I spent the entire next weekend cleaning up, and feeling deflated.

We also had a tornado warning in June of that same year. I was by myself at the house with the dog, when I noticed the sky turning dark, with a low dark funnel-looking cloud forming. Then, the siren went off in distance. I grabbed the dog and we hunkered down in bathroom, me crouching over the dog. I called my wife who was out of town on a work trip, then my mom and dad, to console myself.lol I remember hearing the wind on the front door, which seemed to last FOREVER. I was truly scared, praying everything would be okay. Then it subsided. There were only a few twigs down. I think it was a downdraft from a nearby funnel.

After those experiences in 2009, my excitement over severe weather was put in check. I get anxious now anytime there is a forecast by the SPC of severe weather, even in the 4-8 day forecast, or if there is a loud clap of thunder. I know it's irrational, because every storm is different, but maybe it's a post-traumatic stress to weather extremes kind of thing(?).

Anyway. It's gotten better. I just now have a better appreciation for what hail and tornadoes can do! But, I still enjoy watching TWISTER! I just have a better perspective on it now.

[weatherdude1108]

This looks like more of an El Nino forecast.


956
FXUS64 KEWX 222049
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
249 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)...
Upper air analysis this morning showed a deep trough over the western
half of the country with southwesterly flow over Texas. At the
surface, a front was stalled along the Texas coast into northern
Mexico and then back up toward the Big Bend. On the cool side of the
front winds were from the north. Another upper level shortwave trough
will move across the area tonight keeping chances for rain high
tonight and tomorrow. Some showers will linger across the region as
this feature moves away Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Saturday a Pacific front will move across Texas providing support for
another round of showers. There will be better chances over the
eastern half of the CWA where there will be deeper moisture. Monday
will be dry as the front moves away to the east. [color=#0000FF]The upper level flow
will continue to be from the southwest and a series of shortwave
troughs will move across the region providing enough lift to produce
slight to low end chance POPs each day through the end of the period.

[Ntxw]

SOI has ended the negative streak. Also stronger trades will return to the dateline. About 2 weeks or so down the road we may see a period of below normal precipitation if this holds value. SOI looks overall positive values the rest of Feb

[weatherdude1108]

SOI has ended the negative streak. Also stronger trades will return to the dateline. About 2 weeks or so down the road we may see a period of below normal precipitation if this holds value. SOI looks overall positive values the rest of Feb

Looks like it trended negative on February 20th? It's at -0.40 now. I know you all could use a break from the rain, but we could use more down here.

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seas ... soivalues/

[Ntxw]

SOI has ended the negative streak. Also stronger trades will return to the dateline. About 2 weeks or so down the road we may see a period of below normal precipitation if this holds value. SOI looks overall positive values the rest of Feb

Looks like it trended negative on February 20th? It's at -0.40 now. I know you all could use a break from the rain, but we could use more down here.

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seas ... soivalues/

The daily SOI is +14 for 2/22 driven by higher pressures near Tahiti the next week. The monthly SOI is what has already occured

The daily is what you want to look at, 30 and 90 day is for ENSO purposes

[Haris]

TTU-WRF, HRRR, and RPM models
Bringing a good complex of showers and storms to Austin Tom morning at 7am. They shows 1” of rain in some spots. Fingers crossed

[Cpv17]

We barely got a half an inch of rain here in Wharton from this last storm system. The northeast quadrant of the state got most of the action which was pretty much expected.

[downsouthman1]

Since we're story telling. My interest in weather basically started when I was like 7 in Copperas Cove, TX. My uncle was visiting from Dallas. One day, he kept going outside. He doesn't smoke. I went out with him to see what he kept doing. He said the sky was abnormally dark. I hadn't given it much thought previously. But I noticed what he was talking about. Then these little hard balls of ice started falling from the sky, about the size of marbles. I asked him what it was. He said it was hail. I asked him what that was and he gave me a basic explanation but my interest was piqued. It grew to like nickels and we went inside. Like one minute later, we started hearing these loud knocking sounds on the roof and looked outside and saw tennis balls. After it stopped, we went outside and collected some. I was super impressed. From that moment, I was hooked on weather, mainly severe. Also, as a kid, I used to tell myself that I could control thunderstorms but that was mainly a coping mechanism due to the thunder and lightning at night.

Too many other stories to tell that could go on to show how I've maintained my interest in weather but that above paragraph is what started it. Also, I'm the resident go-to person about anything weather related in all my social circles and have been for many years. I mistakenly didn't pursue a career in my field of passion. I hate school and at my age and with my responsibilities, I'm not going back. But it's OK. I already told my wife that one day I'm gonna be a tornado chaser. She's not OK with it but I am so...

[hamburgerman7070]

Ntxw, the nao and ao are forecasted to go real negative. How long will that take to equate into the models? Also, Dr Cohen said that the pv over w Canada will shift to overseas to its climatologically favored area which, he believes will allow colder air to come into central and east us.

[Ntxw]

Ntxw, the nao and ao are forecasted to go real negative. How long will that take to equate into the models? Also, Dr Cohen said that the pv over w Canada will shift to overseas to its climatologically favored area which, he believes will allow colder air to come into central and east us.

500mb heights with -AO/NAO are favorable for cold air aloft (stormy) in the mid latitudes. Surface cold is still reliant on the EPO which doesn't look terrible. They are already showing in the 7-14 day range of the lowering heights.

Some in the weather circles are throwing around 1962. DFW had a snowstorm March 14th, 1962

[bubba hotep]

After looking at the models, they might be undergoing rainfall across N. Texas tomorrow. The FWD AFD does a good job of detailing the setup. Also, WPC extended the mod back west across N. Texas.

[Ntxw]

Linkage to the tropical Pacific, plenty of mid level moisture to work with so not doubting the wetter solutions. Hoping our southern half friends can join in.







I love the Pacific when you look to it for rain. Single handedly this Ocean has no rival when it comes to long term drought or floods. Sure the Atlantic can give you a big punch with a tropical system but long term effects of drought/no drought doesn't seem to correlate with those like it does to the Pacific. The gulf is big, but the Pacific is bigger.

While my earlier post was to emphasize the +SOI the final week of Feb, correlating to a dry period mid March or so, there are hints of -SOI early March.

[downsouthman1]

Linkage to the tropical Pacific, plenty of mid level moisture to work with so not doubting the wetter solutions. Hoping our southern half friends can join in.

https://images2.imgbox.com/7c/62/WwPn1XDj_o.gif

https://images2.imgbox.com/f6/4d/HP7qNMz8_o.png



I love the Pacific when you look to it for rain. Single handedly this Ocean has no rival when it comes to long term drought or floods. Sure the Atlantic can give you a big punch with a tropical system but long term effects of drought/no drought doesn't seem to correlate with those like it does to the Pacific. The gulf is big, but the Pacific is bigger.

While my earlier post was to emphasize the +SOI the final week of Feb, correlating to a dry period mid March or so, there are hints of -SOI early March.

Not to mention that the last system that the Atlantic/Gulf gave TX (Harvey) basically brought extended drought behind it. CTX hasn't had much rainfall since Harvey.

[Haris]

Since we're story telling. My interest in weather basically started when I was like 7 in Copperas Cove, TX. My uncle was visiting from Dallas. One day, he kept going outside. He doesn't smoke. I went out with him to see what he kept doing. He said the sky was abnormally dark. I hadn't given it much thought previously. But I noticed what he was talking about. Then these little hard balls of ice started falling from the sky, about the size of marbles. I asked him what it was. He said it was hail. I asked him what that was and he gave me a basic explanation but my interest was piqued. It grew to like nickels and we went inside. Like one minute later, we started hearing these loud knocking sounds on the roof and looked outside and saw tennis balls. After it stopped, we went outside and collected some. I was super impressed. From that moment, I was hooked on weather, mainly severe. Also, as a kid, I used to tell myself that I could control thunderstorms but that was mainly a coping mechanism due to the thunder and lightning at night.

Too many other stories to tell that could go on to show how I've maintained my interest in weather but that above paragraph is what started it. Also, I'm the resident go-to person about anything weather related in all my social circles and have been for many years. I mistakenly didn't pursue a career in my field of passion. I hate school and at my age and with my responsibilities, I'm not going back. But it's OK. I already told my wife that one day I'm gonna be a tornado chaser. She's not OK with it but I am so...

Its so cool! You started your interest with hail too! Idk what is with it LOL. And one thing we all share, our passion started when we were all very young. Thats great!

[Haris]

Linkage to the tropical Pacific, plenty of mid level moisture to work with so not doubting the wetter solutions. Hoping our southern half friends can join in.

https://images2.imgbox.com/7c/62/WwPn1XDj_o.gif

https://images2.imgbox.com/f6/4d/HP7qNMz8_o.png



I love the Pacific when you look to it for rain. Single handedly this Ocean has no rival when it comes to long term drought or floods. Sure the Atlantic can give you a big punch with a tropical system but long term effects of drought/no drought doesn't seem to correlate with those like it does to the Pacific. The gulf is big, but the Pacific is bigger.

While my earlier post was to emphasize the +SOI the final week of Feb, correlating to a dry period mid March or so, there are hints of -SOI early March.

Not to mention that the last system that the Atlantic/Gulf gave TX (Harvey) basically brought extended drought behind it. CTX hasn't had much rainfall since Harvey.

Indeed. We had a fairly dry Oct and VERY DRY Nov. December was fairly AWESOME with 2 sizable snows and 4-5" of rain. Besides that, zipp