As of 06:00 UTC Feb 21, 2018:
Location: 4.2°N 146.1°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: N/A
WPAC: INVEST 95W
Moderator: S2k Moderators
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139593
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
WPAC: INVEST 95W
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.5N
143.8E, APPROXIMATELY 410 NM SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF LOW LEVEL TURNING
DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A LARGE AREA OF MID LEVEL TURNING AND
PERSISTENT CONVECTION. THERE IS ALSO AN AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION
LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL TURNING, WHICH IS DEPICTED IN
THE 211644Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT, LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31
CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT THE DISTURBANCE TRACKING TO THE WEST
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH LIMITED IF ANY DEVELOPMENT DUE TO
PROXIMITY TO THE EQUATOR AND POOR ORGANIZATION OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
143.8E, APPROXIMATELY 410 NM SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF LOW LEVEL TURNING
DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A LARGE AREA OF MID LEVEL TURNING AND
PERSISTENT CONVECTION. THERE IS ALSO AN AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION
LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL TURNING, WHICH IS DEPICTED IN
THE 211644Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT, LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31
CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT THE DISTURBANCE TRACKING TO THE WEST
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH LIMITED IF ANY DEVELOPMENT DUE TO
PROXIMITY TO THE EQUATOR AND POOR ORGANIZATION OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W
0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.5N 143.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.3N 140.9E, APPROXIMATELY 300
NM SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
220029Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE DEPICT SPARSE, FLARING CONVECTION OVER
SLIGHT LOW LEVEL TROUGHING. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE
WITH POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENABLING STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH LOW-
MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE ALSO FAVORABLE (29-30 CELSIUS) AND WILL SUPPORT FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A WEAK
CIRCULATION TRAVELLING WESTWARD IN A STRAIGHT LINE WITH LITTLE
DEVELOPMENT FOR THE DURATION OF THE MODEL RUN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
NEAR 5.5N 143.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.3N 140.9E, APPROXIMATELY 300
NM SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
220029Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE DEPICT SPARSE, FLARING CONVECTION OVER
SLIGHT LOW LEVEL TROUGHING. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE
WITH POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENABLING STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH LOW-
MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE ALSO FAVORABLE (29-30 CELSIUS) AND WILL SUPPORT FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A WEAK
CIRCULATION TRAVELLING WESTWARD IN A STRAIGHT LINE WITH LITTLE
DEVELOPMENT FOR THE DURATION OF THE MODEL RUN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W
0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.5N 143.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.7N 135.9E, APPROXIMATELY 120
NM SOUTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 221808Z SSMI 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT FLARING CONVECTION
OVER THE TOP OF A BROAD BUT CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. A
PARTIAL 221215Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS 15 KNOT WINDS ON THE
PERIPHERY SUGGESTING 15 TO 20 KNOT EASTERLY WINDS ON THE POLEWARD
SIDE OF THE LLC. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENABLING STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND LOW (LESS THAN
10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO
FAVORABLE (29-30 CELSIUS) AND ARE SUPPORTIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS THE CIRCULATION
TRAVELLING WESTWARD IN A STRAIGHT LINE WITH LITTLE DEVELOPMENT FOR
THE DURATION OF THE MODEL RUN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
NEAR 5.5N 143.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.7N 135.9E, APPROXIMATELY 120
NM SOUTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 221808Z SSMI 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT FLARING CONVECTION
OVER THE TOP OF A BROAD BUT CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. A
PARTIAL 221215Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS 15 KNOT WINDS ON THE
PERIPHERY SUGGESTING 15 TO 20 KNOT EASTERLY WINDS ON THE POLEWARD
SIDE OF THE LLC. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENABLING STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND LOW (LESS THAN
10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO
FAVORABLE (29-30 CELSIUS) AND ARE SUPPORTIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS THE CIRCULATION
TRAVELLING WESTWARD IN A STRAIGHT LINE WITH LITTLE DEVELOPMENT FOR
THE DURATION OF THE MODEL RUN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.5N 143.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.9N 134.2E, APPROXIMATELY 90
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING, DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. HOWEVER, THE 230004Z
OSCAT AND 230052 ASCAT IMAGES SHOW STRAIGHT-LINE FLOW AT THE SURFACE
WITH A SMALL POCKET OF 15-20 KNOT WINDS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS HAS
WARM (28-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (5-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ADEQUATE
DIVERGENCE ALOFT DUE TO POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODELS
MAINTAIN A WEAK CIRCULATION AT LEAST OUT TO THE MIDDLE TAUS, BUT DO
NOT PREDICT DEVELOPMENT TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH AS THE
DISTURBANCE TRACKS WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED
TO LOW.
NEAR 5.5N 143.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.9N 134.2E, APPROXIMATELY 90
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING, DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. HOWEVER, THE 230004Z
OSCAT AND 230052 ASCAT IMAGES SHOW STRAIGHT-LINE FLOW AT THE SURFACE
WITH A SMALL POCKET OF 15-20 KNOT WINDS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS HAS
WARM (28-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (5-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ADEQUATE
DIVERGENCE ALOFT DUE TO POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODELS
MAINTAIN A WEAK CIRCULATION AT LEAST OUT TO THE MIDDLE TAUS, BUT DO
NOT PREDICT DEVELOPMENT TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH AS THE
DISTURBANCE TRACKS WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED
TO LOW.
0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139593
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W
Febuary climo working here.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.9N
134.2E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
134.2E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W
95W INVEST 180225 0000 5.5N 126.6E WPAC 15 1010
0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
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