ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
Re: ENSO Updates
Should be -1C at the update later this morning
2 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- CyclonicFury
- Category 5
- Posts: 1977
- Age: 25
- Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
- Location: NC
- Contact:
Re: ENSO Updates
Ntxw wrote:Should be -1C at the update later this morning
Despite all this El Niño talk by Eric Webb (and 1997/2015 comparisons), La Niña is still firmly in place, for now. I just don’t see a quick turnaround to Strong El Niño conditions for hurricane season. In the cases of 1997 and 2015, La Niña conditions were not present at this time, and in 2015 we were already nearly at moderate El Niño conditions at this time. I just have a hard time believing how we could see anything more than a moderate El Niño this fall.
2 likes
NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139708
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ENSO Updates
Kingarabian Not yet as of 19th of Febuary.The 30 day index goes negative and the 90 day one is on the virge to do that.
Code: Select all
1 Feb 2018 1009.08 1006.65 -11.10 8.24 5.34
2 Feb 2018 1007.15 1006.30 -18.68 7.36 4.95
3 Feb 2018 1004.90 1006.25 -29.25 6.38 4.51
4 Feb 2018 1006.55 1006.45 -22.29 5.84 4.22
5 Feb 2018 1006.06 1005.45 -19.84 5.74 3.96
6 Feb 2018 1005.29 1006.20 -27.14 5.33 3.46
7 Feb 2018 1005.02 1006.10 -27.95 4.74 3.03
8 Feb 2018 1006.19 1006.35 -23.54 4.16 2.73
9 Feb 2018 1008.99 1006.40 -10.33 3.85 2.62
10 Feb 2018 1011.01 1006.65 -1.83 3.50 2.60
11 Feb 2018 1010.63 1007.10 -5.81 3.02 2.46
12 Feb 2018 1009.04 1007.00 -12.97 2.42 2.18
13 Feb 2018 1006.84 1006.55 -21.37 1.51 1.81
14 Feb 2018 1007.05 1006.90 -22.05 0.37 1.39
15 Feb 2018 1010.15 1008.30 -13.88 -0.66 1.10
16 Feb 2018 1012.74 1009.60 -7.68 -1.68 0.86
17 Feb 2018 1011.37 1009.40 -13.30 -2.72 0.57
18 Feb 2018 1010.76 1008.75 -13.11 -3.65 0.31
19 Feb 2018 1010.23 1008.70 -15.42 -4.71 0.04
Last updated: 29 June 2010
1 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139708
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ENSO Updates
So much for the El Niño hype.
@MJVentrice
Trades are forecast to return back over the Pacific as advertised by the ECMWF EPS. The atmosphere is fighting against the ocean momentum towards El Nino.
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/965586633948057601
@MJVentrice
Trades are forecast to return back over the Pacific as advertised by the ECMWF EPS. The atmosphere is fighting against the ocean momentum towards El Nino.
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/965586633948057601
1 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139708
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ENSO Updates
Ntxw wrote:Should be -1C at the update later this morning
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15462
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: ENSO Updates
cycloneye wrote:Kingarabian Not yet as of 19th of Febuary.The 30 day index goes negative and the 90 day one is on the virge to do that.Code: Select all
1 Feb 2018 1009.08 1006.65 -11.10 8.24 5.34
2 Feb 2018 1007.15 1006.30 -18.68 7.36 4.95
3 Feb 2018 1004.90 1006.25 -29.25 6.38 4.51
4 Feb 2018 1006.55 1006.45 -22.29 5.84 4.22
5 Feb 2018 1006.06 1005.45 -19.84 5.74 3.96
6 Feb 2018 1005.29 1006.20 -27.14 5.33 3.46
7 Feb 2018 1005.02 1006.10 -27.95 4.74 3.03
8 Feb 2018 1006.19 1006.35 -23.54 4.16 2.73
9 Feb 2018 1008.99 1006.40 -10.33 3.85 2.62
10 Feb 2018 1011.01 1006.65 -1.83 3.50 2.60
11 Feb 2018 1010.63 1007.10 -5.81 3.02 2.46
12 Feb 2018 1009.04 1007.00 -12.97 2.42 2.18
13 Feb 2018 1006.84 1006.55 -21.37 1.51 1.81
14 Feb 2018 1007.05 1006.90 -22.05 0.37 1.39
15 Feb 2018 1010.15 1008.30 -13.88 -0.66 1.10
16 Feb 2018 1012.74 1009.60 -7.68 -1.68 0.86
17 Feb 2018 1011.37 1009.40 -13.30 -2.72 0.57
18 Feb 2018 1010.76 1008.75 -13.11 -3.65 0.31
19 Feb 2018 1010.23 1008.70 -15.42 -4.71 0.04
Last updated: 29 June 2010
Thats true, because it looks like that low near Tahiti lingered longer than expected. My original thoughts were for a reversal after the 20th though. It clearly shows up on the EPS Hovmoller that Ventrice just posted (trade burst forecast).
1 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139708
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ENSO: CPC 2/19/18 update: Niño 3.4 down to -1.0C
Webb keeps the El Niño option open.
@webberweather
The downwelling Kelvin Wave currently in the WP has analogous WWV to 1997 but is starting from 2014's cooler base state. Even w/ attenuation & no additional forcing, this KW is enough on its own to send us to warm neutral/borderline weak El Nino conditions by late spring. #ElNino
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/965637950976544768
@webberweather
The downwelling Kelvin Wave currently in the WP has analogous WWV to 1997 but is starting from 2014's cooler base state. Even w/ attenuation & no additional forcing, this KW is enough on its own to send us to warm neutral/borderline weak El Nino conditions by late spring. #ElNino
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/965637950976544768
1 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139708
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ENSO: CPC 2/19/18 update: Niño 3.4 down to -1.0C
@webberweather
It's funny how gun shy many have become this yr w/ ENSO & I see many comparisons to last yr. 2017 & this yr really aren't comparable going into the predictability barrier. This yr's +PMM/-AMO & historical ENSO bandwidth is more favorable for NINO growth (but doesn't guarantee it)
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/965653768011505670
It's funny how gun shy many have become this yr w/ ENSO & I see many comparisons to last yr. 2017 & this yr really aren't comparable going into the predictability barrier. This yr's +PMM/-AMO & historical ENSO bandwidth is more favorable for NINO growth (but doesn't guarantee it)
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/965653768011505670
1 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Re: ENSO: CPC 2/19/18 update: Niño 3.4 down to -1.0C
webb calling for niño by late spring is very Bastardish, imo. While I favor an el niño this year, it is hard to envision going from a niña to a niño this quickly. I was thinking more of a 2006 like evolution
Last edited by Alyono on Mon Feb 19, 2018 9:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
2 likes
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15462
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: ENSO: CPC 2/19/18 update: Niño 3.4 down to -1.0C
Alyono wrote:webb calling for niño by late spring is very Bastardish, imo. While I favor an el niño this year, it is hard to envision going from a niña to a niño this quickly. I was thiking more of a 2006 like evolution
I agree lol. The next sub surface frame will be interesting to see as it will show us truly how strong the Kelvin wave is.
Also this is in the very long range, but the past couple of runs, the Euro has been hinting on a negative leaning SOI for the first week of March. Something to keep an eye on.
1 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2672
- Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am
- StruThiO
- Category 3
- Posts: 821
- Age: 24
- Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:51 am
- Location: Currently Portland, OR. Raised in Jax, FL.
Re: ENSO Updates
WeatherGuesser wrote:Anybody seeing another cold blast before the seasons change for the year?
Do you mean as it pertains to ENSO or in general? Here in Portland we just got a Winter Storm Warning with 3 to 7 inches of snow expected for the metro area.
0 likes
- wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22512
- Age: 66
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: ENSO: CPC 2/19/18 update: Niño 3.4 down to -1.0C
Alyono wrote:webb calling for niño by late spring is very Bastardish, imo. While I favor an el niño this year, it is hard to envision going from a niña to a niño this quickly. I was thinking more of a 2006 like evolution
I'm thinking more like 2011-2012 than 2005-2006. Slightly warm-neutral. Activity a little above normal.
2 likes
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15462
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: ENSO Updates
Latest subsurface frame shows the downwelling Kelvin Wave still in full force. Going to take more than this upcoming trade burst to slow this down.
3 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139708
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ENSO Updates
The mid-Febuary plume of models on average have Neutral ENSO for ASO.
https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/ ... -sst_table
https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/ ... -sst_table
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Re: ENSO Updates
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XAEnEWoZeHs
Jane is usually on the money with enso.
Jane is usually on the money with enso.
0 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139708
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ENSO Updates
SOI has turned positive.
Code: Select all
1 Feb 2018 1009.08 1006.65 -11.10 8.24 5.34
2 Feb 2018 1007.15 1006.30 -18.68 7.36 4.95
3 Feb 2018 1004.90 1006.25 -29.25 6.38 4.51
4 Feb 2018 1006.55 1006.45 -22.29 5.84 4.22
5 Feb 2018 1006.06 1005.45 -19.84 5.74 3.96
6 Feb 2018 1005.29 1006.20 -27.14 5.33 3.46
7 Feb 2018 1005.02 1006.10 -27.95 4.74 3.03
8 Feb 2018 1006.19 1006.35 -23.54 4.16 2.73
9 Feb 2018 1008.99 1006.40 -10.33 3.85 2.62
10 Feb 2018 1011.01 1006.65 -1.83 3.50 2.60
11 Feb 2018 1010.63 1007.10 -5.81 3.02 2.46
12 Feb 2018 1009.04 1007.00 -12.97 2.42 2.18
13 Feb 2018 1006.84 1006.55 -21.37 1.51 1.81
14 Feb 2018 1007.05 1006.90 -22.05 0.37 1.39
15 Feb 2018 1010.15 1008.30 -13.88 -0.66 1.10
16 Feb 2018 1012.74 1009.60 -7.68 -1.68 0.86
17 Feb 2018 1011.37 1009.40 -13.30 -2.72 0.57
18 Feb 2018 1010.76 1008.75 -13.11 -3.65 0.31
19 Feb 2018 1010.23 1008.70 -15.42 -4.71 0.04
20 Feb 2018 1010.05 1007.95 -12.68 -5.66 -0.25
21 Feb 2018 1011.69 1007.75 -3.84 -6.48 -0.46
22 Feb 2018 1013.89 1006.10 14.65 -6.85 -0.40
23 Feb 2018 1015.61 1006.05 23.15 -6.76 -0.16
1 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1706
- Joined: Wed Feb 26, 2003 10:53 am
- Location: Nags Head, NC
- Contact:
Re: ENSO Updates
Digital-TC-Chaser wrote:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XAEnEWoZeHs
Jane is usually on the money with enso.
Thanks Chaser. Excellent video, sure wish they would do the same here in the states. I agree, all looks neutral for this year. Might head for a weak Nino by year end, but too late to have any effect on this years Atlantic hurricane season.
BTW, with her accent I'll bet that she ain't from around here.
0 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139708
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ENSO Updates
The battle between the warm and cold waters below the surface is raging on and the question is which one will dominate in the next few months.
2 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15462
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: ENSO Updates
cycloneye wrote:SOI has turned positive.
[code][/code]
Looks like the euro is keeping a pretty neutral SOI setup for the first week of March (that can still change as its in the medium range). Trades will probably remain relaxed until the pressure setup changes. So this means the spotlight will remain on the downwelling Kelvin wave and how much it warms the subsurface pool.
3 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: Cpv17, galaxy401, Landy, lilbump3000, Wampadawg and 42 guests