SPAC: HOLA - Post-Tropical

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Maybe I'm doing Dvorak wrong, but that SAB analysis seems off to me. The MG eye is embedded in W, not B, and it's surrounded by CMG which yields T6.0. Satellite presentation much more supports a storm on the cusp of Category 4 (SSHWS) intensity than moderate Category 2 strength, especially given its tight core (we know how fast they ramp up).

[1900hurricane]

105 kt/949 mb is probably what I'd go with for 18Z (a 15 kt increase over my 90 kt at 12Z and 40 kt increase from my 65 kt 24 hours ago), and even that could be a little low given the rapid intensification. Hola will likely make it to CI 6.5 by 00Z in my opinion.

[NotoSans]

Nadi went with 90 knots (10-minute sustained) at 18Z, a 40-knot increase over 6 hours.

[cycloneye]

@JMGarciaRivera
18Z sat estimates from JTWC/NOAA/CIMSS 5.0/5.0/4.9 support a current intensity of 90kts (US Cat-2). Storm continues to rapidly intensify, & likely to be @ or approaching Cat-4 within 6-12 hrs. It can reach an extreme intensity @ peak, since conditions are favorable.

 https://twitter.com/JMGarciaRivera/status/971471122251345926

[wxman57]

Multiply Fiji's 90kt 10-min wind by 1.13 to convert to 1-min and you get a Cat 3 (SS) storm of 101.7 kts. Reasonable. 50kts was way too low at 14Z.

[WAcyclone]

Lots of lightning in the eyewall:





Looks like there are quite a few "Wild House shakers" (lightning strikes with more than 100 kA).

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

likely the only thing that may keep the intensity in check is the uncertainty
in the length of time between eyewall replacements.

[euro6208]

Extremely cold cloud tops surrounding a pinhole hole.

[1900hurricane]

Both Nadi and JTWC held at 90 kt for 00Z, although Nadi uses 10 minute winds and JTWC uses 1 minute winds. For me, I'd actually probably bump up to 110 or 115 kt (1 minute) for 00Z. If the white shade on BD doesn't meet width requirements for an embedded shade, it isn't missing it by much, and with a system as compact as Hola currently is, I am willing to give it that embedded shade. Coupled with an eye that has been oscillating largely between light and medium grey, I'd derive a DT of 6.0, the primary basis of my 110-115 kt estimate.

[1900hurricane]

Looks like Hola is about to begin eyewall replacement.

[Alyono]

would expec to hear reports of catastrophic flooding and mudslides on Vanuatu. The outer bands have been parked over them for a couple of days now

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm
RSMC Initialized


Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 MAR 2018 Time : 011000 UTC
Lat : 18:00:50 S Lon : 165:31:56 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.7 / 982.7mb/ 59.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.6 3.6 3.6

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.9mb

Center Temp : -71.0C Cloud Region Temp : -72.0C

Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 35.3 degrees
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/satcon/archive/2018/satconhist_201812P.txt

[wxman57]

Hola really fell apart today. Not much of an eyewall left. Maybe 60-65 kts.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

https://reliefweb.int/map/vanuatu/vanua ... entre-ercc

SITUATION OVERVIEW as of 9 Mar

Sources: Media

1 fatality (south Pentecost Island, Vanuatu)

2 people injured (south Pentecost Island, Vanuatu)

Damaged buildings (Malampa - Penama provinces, Vanuatu)