2018 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

This MJO does wonders. 2 TC's in historically the most quietest month of the season?

[euro6208]

EURO now in agreement with GFS on landfall location but differs on how strong it will get. Keeps it weak 3rd run in a row.

[euro6208]

Looking like development is looking less and less likely now. It's greatest chance would be in the SCS.

[euro6208]

While we wait for the 2018 Typhoon Season to kick into gear, feel free to check out the reanalysis I did on the 1979 Typhoon Season, which I have summarized in a recent blog entry.

Reanalyzing the Pacific Typhoon Seasons: 1979

Great blog! Measured 898 and 887 mb but only 130 and 135 knots max? That's thrilling. Looking more to your reanalysis post!

[euro6208]

[1900hurricane]

Anything that develops will come from the feature in the vicinity of 5ºN and 158ºE. Some weak equatorial westerlies interacting with the trade winds has resulted in a loose area of vorticity. ASCAT from several hours ago showed cyclonic curvature to the wind barbs to the west of 160ºE, and IR imagery from the area also shows some slight curvature to the scattered disorganized convection. Guidance has backed off some with the feature, keeping it open through at least tau 120. I'm not expecting development, but it's the only game in town right now as we navigate through the WPac climatological minimum in tropical cyclone activity. It will probably be tagged as an invest at some point though.

[mrbagyo]

a new invest is about to get tagged

[euro6208]

95W THREAD

Phantom ghost storm up.

[euro6208]

GFS keeping the basin quiet until the middle of March...EURO zilch.

[euro6208]

Interesting. GFS has a small tight vortex developing near 145E and crosses the equator to the Southern Hemisphere. Short lived.

[1900hurricane]

Looks spurious to me.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

From anticlockwise to clockwise. Not possible we move forward in the shem not in reverse

Euro is just pointing it out. He knows it's fake.

[euro6208]

At this time, AccuWeather is projecting the number of tropical storms, typhoons and super typhoons to be near to slightly below average for 2018

It's going to be another long season ahead whether nina, nino, or neutral. With nino, you have a much more favorable environment with countless areas threatened. With nina, the focus will be around the Philippines and SCS where all that warm water is concentrated. Oh boy.

2018 season forecast

[cycloneye]

Long range here so take it with extreme caution as GFS has a TS/Typhoon closing on Mindanao,Phillippines.

[euro6208]

GFS very persistent on this area had it crossing south of the equator to some runs almost no development as it nears the P.I. Bullish now.

Let's see what happens.

[euro6208]

GFS not as strong and is on and off about this future system in past couple of runs. Some runs has it moving towards Guam others passing south of Guam.

[dexterlabio]

I just wish the GFS undergoes some kind of update before the typhoon season kicks in. I know long-range model storms are always suspicious, but there was a time that the GFS could nail potential systems 300+ hours out. I believe that model worked really well back in 2013.

[euro6208]

GFS back at it again this time an eastward strengthening typhoon over eastern Micronesia? I think not...Latest runs again weaker and moving west.

[euro6208]

EURO joins GFS on something developing southeast of Guam for the past 5 runs but further development is limited. Passes south of Guam while GFS is not as enthusiastic as previous.

[euro6208]

.Eastern Micronesia...
A very active pattern persists across the region with a poorly-
defined circulation south-southeast of Pohnpei near 4N160E.
Widespread showers and some thunderstorms span much of Pohnpei and
Kosrae States. Models maintain similar weather for Pohnpei for
much of the next several days while Kosrae may see a little
reduction in convection by Thursday night. However, models show
little change in organization or motion of the circulation so
unstable weather will remain in the area for a while. Trade-wind
convergence will bring scattered showers to Majuro Thursday and
Thursday night.

&&

.Western Micronesia...
Chuuk weather will remain fairly quiet through tonight, but a few
isolated thunderstorms are possible by Thursday as convection
associated with the weak circulation SSE of Pohnpei moves into the
area. Scattered showers are expected on Friday, but for the long
run, models keep the bulk of precipitation to the east through
the weekend.

Quiet weather at Yap and Koror will continue through the weekend.
Trade-wind convergence will bring a few more clouds and showers to
the area by Thursday night or Friday. High surf advisory remains
in effect through Thursday night. North swell will gradually
subside with the dominant swell becoming more easterly by Friday.