Digital-TC-Chaser wrote:
It gets tossed about quite alot i know. But what be the odds about a nina modoki latter in the year.
Happened last spring before the Niña died
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Digital-TC-Chaser wrote:
It gets tossed about quite alot i know. But what be the odds about a nina modoki latter in the year.
CyclonicFury wrote:CFS certainly isn’t the most reliable model when it comes to ENSO, but it is worth noting that not one ensemble member of the latest set is forecasting El Niño conditions this fall. It’s also interesting to note that the March CanSIPS came in slightly cooler.
Unusually warm Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures help to arrest development of El Niño in 2014
Lu Dong and Michael McPhaden published a paper in Scientific Reports on 2 February 2018 that describe how in 2014, warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Indian Ocean weakened westerly wind anomalies in the Pacific and helped to arrest the development of a widely anticipated major El Niño. They demonstrated the processes involved using an ensemble of coupled numerical experiments in which observed Indian Ocean SST anomalies in 2014–15 were prescribed but the Pacific Ocean-atmosphere system was free to evolve. Results confirmed that warm SST anomalies in the Indian Ocean created conditions that would have favored strengthening trade winds in the Pacific in 2014 such that only borderline El Niño conditions were evident by the end of the year.
Dong, L. and M.J. McPhaden, 2018: Unusually warm Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures help to arrest development of El Niño in 2014. Science Reports, 8, 2249, doi:10.1038/s41598-018-20294-4.
cycloneye wrote:Maybe this wave sparks El Niño or not so fast?
@PaulRoundy1
Substantial synoptic westerly wind event in place near the east of New Guinea is associated with an equatorial Rossby wave coupled to the North Pacific blocking ridge. The northern cyclone near 160E is a cut-off low forced by anticyclonic Rossby wave breaking.
[img]https://i.imgur.com/j5wjZR5.jpg[img]
[tweet]https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/972849188886237184[tweet]
Shell Mound wrote:
Source: ECMWF charts
The newly released March plumes suggest borderline-El Niño conditions by the peak of the hurricane season.
Digital-TC-Chaser wrote::uarrow: They get email to me,v/old account still sends.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/outlook/
13 March 2018 Next issue 27 March 2018
The weak 2017-18 La Niña that has been active since December 2017, has ended. All atmospheric and oceanic indices are now at neutral levels, with most model outlooks suggesting neutral-ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) is the most likely scenario through the southern hemisphere autumn and early winter. The ENSO Outlook has returned to INACTIVE.
An INACTIVE status means that ENSO is neutral and there are no clear indications that an El Niño or La Niña event will develop in the coming months.
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