When do you think we will see Alberto form? Poll added
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- CyclonicFury
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When do you think we will see Alberto form? Poll added
I’m going to guess late June.
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NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.
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Re: When do you think we will see Alberto form?
Between the 5th and the 9th of June. Probably Gulf of Mexico or western Caribbean!
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Re: When do you think we will see Alberto form?
NDG wrote:Some time in May.
Yep, sometime in May was what I was thinking too
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- cycloneye
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Re: When do you think we will see Alberto form? Poll added
Added a poll to make this question more interesting. It closes on April 15 at 2:08 PM EDT.
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- CFLHurricane
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Re: When do you think we will see Alberto form? Poll added
I’m going to make a bold guess, Cotton, and go with April. I think this will be another whirlwind year that will leave us burnt out before peak season.
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I'm not a meteorologist, but I did stay at a motel 8.
- CyclonicFury
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Re: When do you think we will see Alberto form? Poll added
If we do indeed get Alberto in April or May, NHC is going to have to start seriously considering extending the season to start on May 15 to match with the east Pacific. I don’t think they are interested in doing so, though.
I personally think the second half of May is active enough to be considered hurricane season for the Atlantic. (Though nearly all storms that form in this time are weak).
I personally think the second half of May is active enough to be considered hurricane season for the Atlantic. (Though nearly all storms that form in this time are weak).
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NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.
- TheStormExpert
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Re: When do you think we will see Alberto form? Poll added
CyclonicFury wrote:If we do indeed get Alberto in April or May, NHC is going to have to start seriously considering extending the season to start on May 15 to match with the east Pacific. I don’t think they are interested in doing so, though.
I personally think the second half of May is active enough to be considered hurricane season for the Atlantic. (Though nearly all storms that form in this time are weak).
Last year we didn’t have a storm in May, and I don’t believe we came close to either. Arlene in April was also only the 2nd occurrence I believe that a TC formed in the Atlantic in April, first being Ana in April 2003.
But yeah it has been starting to become more common to see May Atlantic TC’s over the past decade with 2012 sticking out for being one of the two years to have two May Atlantic TC’s and one nearly become a hurricane prior to striking the rarely struck NE Florida region Memorial Day Weekend that year.
I’d go with us seeing Alberto in May again like in 2012 likely off the SE U.S. Coast mid-late month starting out as a Subtropical entity just like that particular year.
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- storm_in_a_teacup
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Re: When do you think we will see Alberto form? Poll added
How the heck are you guys even thinking about guessing when a tropical storm will happen while we're still in March????
(I kinda bopped out once the season ended, went to r/tropicalweather for a few months, then came back because that subreddit died down after all the tropics kinda went quiet. So I'm not too angry...given it keeps up activity on this site )
(I kinda bopped out once the season ended, went to r/tropicalweather for a few months, then came back because that subreddit died down after all the tropics kinda went quiet. So I'm not too angry...given it keeps up activity on this site )
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I know I can't straddle the atmosphere...just a tiny storm in your teacup, girl.
- AnnularCane
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Re: When do you think we will see Alberto form? Poll added
storm_in_a_teacup wrote:How the heck are you guys even thinking about guessing when a tropical storm will happen while we're still in March????
We're funny that way.
I'm guessing first week in June. Can't have preseason storms every year...right? Although I wouldn't be surprised if it's May.
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Re: When do you think we will see Alberto form? Poll added
I usually don’t post any personal predictions, but I think I will make an exception this time. I think that we will have an early start this year. Probably mid to late May. My personal thoughts are that because of the negative NAO and warm sst’s in the GOM and sw atlantic something will spin up either in the GOM or Atlantic. A cluster of storms or a spin up off a front is most likely. With any luck the negative NAO will be long gone by mid spring, but I’m not sure. Anyway it really needs to get out of here, it has caused havoc here on the east coast in March.
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- cycloneye
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Re: When do you think we will see Alberto form? Poll added
Any of the members that have not voted yet in this poll still have time as on April 15 at 2:08 PM EDT it will close.
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
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- CyclonicFury
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Re: When do you think we will see Alberto form? Poll added
If we do not get Alberto from this upcoming Caribbean/Gulf system (and it appears as if we likely won't), then the streak of pre-season starts for the Atlantic will come to an end.
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NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.
- CyclonicFury
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Re: When do you think we will see Alberto form? Poll added
Those who said May are correct. Alberto has formed today. Four years in a row of preseason named storms!
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NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.
- AnnularCane
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Re: When do you think we will see Alberto form? Poll added
Okay, maybe we can have preseason storms every year.
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