While there is currently a Slight risk contour across most of the
area for Day 3 (mainly late Monday), the more concerning period
across our region with this system at this point is Tuesday when
the cold front moves through. A lot will depend on the timing of
the squall line Monday night/early Tuesday morning but model
forecasts have been fairly consistent that the threat for severe
weather will continue into Tuesday. Deep layer moisture and shear
remain in place, with nearly 2000 J/kg of SBCAPE and 40-50+ knots
of 0-6km bulk shear supporting supercell development, perhaps
even out ahead of the front. Forecast soundings also showing steep
lapse rates and even a fair amount of shear in the 0-1km and
0-3km layers, suggesting the possibility that all modes of severe
weather including tornadoes are possible.
I've wanted some wind followed by a nice downpour to clean out the air and finish off the pollen but am I going to regret that desire on Tuesday?