SIO: MARCUS - Post-Tropical

[1900hurricane]

Here we go.

[Yellow Evan]

Becoming more symmetrical. Will likely be a Cat 4 hurricane by tonight.

[1900hurricane]

Yep, microwave structure only contiues to get more impressive.



Biggest potential detriment appears to be dry air. There's a bit of it around, including some that may be edging into the circulation from the east.

[euro6208]

WTXS32 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 14.8S 116.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 116.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 14.7S 113.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 15.1S 111.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 15.8S 108.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 17.2S 107.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 21.6S 106.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 25.5S 107.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 27.7S 109.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 116.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 347 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY
INTO A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE WITH A RE-DEVELOPING EYE
EVIDENT OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. A 200655Z SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE
INDICATES AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) IS OCCURRING WITH AN
OUTER EYEWALL AND MOAT SURROUNDING A VERY SMALL INNER EYEWALL. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS STEADY AT 105 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 5.5 (102 KNOTS), ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT
WEAKENING TREND HAD OCCURRED PRIOR TO THIS TIME AS IS TYPICAL WITH
ERC. TC 15S IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 135 KNOTS THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN AFTER
TAU 48 AS IT RECURVES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR
TAU 96 BUT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BEFORE COMPLETING ETT AS A
STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 41 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
201500Z, 202100Z, 210300Z AND 210900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S
(ELIAKIM) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TPXS12 PGTW 200939

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS)

B. 20/0830Z

C. 14.65S

D. 116.25E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T5.5/5.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. W EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.5. SUBTRACTED 1.0 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD
A DT OF 5.5. MET AND PT YIELD 5.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
20/0655Z 14.55S 116.72E SSMI


LOWE

TXXS23 KNES 200625
TCSSIO

A. 15S (MARCUS)

B. 20/0530Z

C. 14.7S

D. 116.9E

E. ONE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T5.0/5.5/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...EYE PATTERN WITH A W EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG AND EMBEDDED
IN W FOR A DT=5.0 INCLUDING -1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET AND PT AGREE. FT
IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...LEE

[1900hurricane]

Undergoing eyewall replacement currently.

[mrbagyo]

^ that sructure still looks impressive, good chance to bomb when it's finished.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Good to see a beast that is only a threat to surface fish.

[SootyTern]

Do bad hurricanes ever make it as far south as Perth?

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Do bad hurricanes ever make it as far south as Perth?

http://www.radioaustralia.net.au/intern ... ic/1743994

[1900hurricane]

I'm not sure Marcus is going to realize its full potential. Looks like it might be occasionally ingesting some of the surrounding environmental dry air. We'll see how it does now that it's finishing up eyewall replacement.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Yeah appears that way on RGB airmas

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/ ... mmb-slider

[Chris90]

Satellite presentation has improved quite a bit over the past few hours. Might be the best looking storm of the SHem so far this year, imo. Just might be going for that Cat 5 run.

[1900hurricane]

Yeah, looking pretty good now. The eye could be warmer, but even with the coolish eye, Marcus is on the doorstep of a DT of 7.0. Warm the eye to warm medium grey, and the DT could potentially jump to 7.5.

[NotoSans]

Perhaps the eye needs to further clear out but looks like a cat.5 is coming.

[euro6208]

15S MARCUS 180321 0600 14.8S 110.9E SHEM 125 935

[doomhaMwx]

Elektro-L RGB
03-21-2018 9:00am UTC

[Highteeld]

I'd be pretty confident that a plane would find Cat 5 winds in Marcus, just eyeballing it i'd guess 145 knots or so... RAW ADT 7.1 last i checked

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 21 MAR 2018 Time : 111000 UTC
Lat : 14:52:03 S Lon : 109:37:47 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.7 / 949.1mb/107.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.7 6.8 7.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 18 km

Center Temp : -6.8C Cloud Region Temp : -79.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 148km
- Environmental MSLP : 1007mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 39.6 degrees

****************************************************

[euro6208]

I'd be pretty confident that a plane would find Cat 5 winds in Marcus, just eyeballing it i'd guess 145 knots or so... RAW ADT 7.1 last i checked

I like how the convection got more circular around the eye especially the southeast. Very strong cyclone.