WTPS31 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 10.2S 136.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 349 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE
BAND WRAPPING IN FROM THE WEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF
35 KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM ADRM,
COUPLED WITH A 220054Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF 30-35
KNOT WINDS IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS
MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), EXCELLENT
EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SSTS (29-30C). TC 16P IS
BEING STEERED BY A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE TO ITS EAST. THE STORM
IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 BEFORE TURNING TO
THE SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY TO THE WEST AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER
CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. THE STORM WILL INTENSIFY, SLOWLY AT FIRST, THEN
MORE RAPIDLY AS VWS DECREASES. THE PEAK INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 85
KNOTS BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A LARGE SPREAD, WITH
SEVERAL MODELS BRINGING IT SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAPE OF YORK AND OTHER
MODELS TURNING IT BACK TO THE WEST AFTER COMING ASHORE IN THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF CARPENTARIA. THIS SPREAD IS LEADING TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z, 230300Z,
230900Z AND 231500Z.//