CyclonicFury wrote:Kingarabian wrote:CyclonicFury wrote:It is historically unusual to see a sharp transition from La Niña to El Niño. With a positive SOI at the moment and the Niño 3.4 region still running around -0.7C below normal, I doubt we will see anything more than a weak El Niño at most. It’s possible we could get warm neutral during the season and El Niño developing afterwards, which would likely really only impact the end of the season.
Don't look at the SOI right now. The pressures in Darwin are skewered due to the recent influx of TC activity.
Do you think El Niño is likely?
I'm still leaning towards a warm-neutral or just neutral for now. Hard to go against history, but as we all know, we still have a lot to learn about ENSO. IMO an El Nino during ASO has to be in the cards now since during the month of March, we've seen the atmosphere trending towards an El Nino state. We'll just have to wait and see, as it could be a false flag. Looks like another tough year for forecasters.