Texas Spring 2018

[rwfromkansas]

Rain has been north of DFW though finally pouring at my house.

I have a feeling the FFW will be canceled but will see. I think the main focus today is south of the metro.

[Lagreeneyes03]

Just saw a tweet from Haslet PD, a trampoline was caught up on some power lines like a marooned flying saucer...

[rwfromkansas]

IWeathernet says only up to 1.5 inches for metro. He is usually spot-on. Think FWD will cancel FFW. Virtually no rain on radar. ETA those West got some desperately needed rains so very glad for them. Hope more comes.

[Yukon Cornelius]

3" since yesterday with an 80% chance of rain today and tonight still to go. This should really help the wheat that has been in bad stress from the drought and on and off cold all winter.

[bubba hotep]

Wow, no signs of early heat waves on the Euro EPS. The 00z run from last night has pretty much all of N.America under below normal 850s at the end of the run (April 11th).

[ColdFusion]

Virtually no rain on radar.

Seems like enough radar activity to give us plenty of rain to me.

[bubba hotep]

Multiple upstream disturbances will move across Texas today with each one being capable of producing heavy rain. WPC has issued a MOD for areas east of I35.

[gboudx]

Update from Jeff Lindner:

A strong storm system will continue to progress across TX bringing strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall.

Slow moving surface cool front is across NW/SW TX this morning edging to the east with clusters of showers and thunderstorms ongoing along the boundary. Air mass SE of this boundary will destabilize today with strong o severe thunderstorms likely developing this afternoon across C TX into N TX. Some of these storms will approach and move into the W/NW portions of SE TX later this evening and tonight with a threat for large hail and damaging winds. Not expecting much development in the capped warm sector over the reminder of SE TX today and tonight. Rain chances will greatly increase early Wednesday as the surface front creeps into the region. Expect multiple clusters of showers and thunderstorms to develop along and ahead of this boundary. Air mass by late morning Wednesday will begin to destabilize across the warm sector as heating warms the lower levels. Instability will be increasing into Wednesday afternoon and expect to see an increase in storm intensity and organization into Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Main severe threats will be large hail and damaging winds although an isolated tornado is possible…this risk appears low. Some questions remain as to how fast the surface boundary moves across SE TX or associated thunderstorm outflows which could undercut surface based convection helping to reduce the severe threat. Storms that are able to root near the surface will likely take full potential of the instability and shear and produce some severe weather.

Heavy rainfall will also be a concern on Wednesday, but latest short range models have backed off some on overall storm totals. Will go with widespread 1-2 inches with isolated amounts of 3-4 inches where any storms may train. Moisture levels are very impressive for late March and this will likely help to promote high hourly rainfall rates which may lead to some street flooding especially in urban areas. The overall hydro setting is fairly dry and most of the rain that falls will able to be handles by local drainage systems as long as no prolonged training develops. Will likely see rises on our eastern rivers (Trinity and possibly the San Jacinto basin) where more widespread nature of the rainfall on top of wetter ground conditions will occur.

Residents are encouraged to make sure you have a way to receive warning information on Wednesday and remember to never drive into high water.

The safest place during a severe thunderstorm is in an interior room on the lowest floor of a structure away from windows.

[bubba hotep]

12z 3k NAM was 2-4" for all of DFW with isolated areas to the east getting 5"+.

[wxman57]

Well, I see that the EC has given up on the significant cold front for south Texas next week. 00Z Monday forecast was for lows in the upper 40s and highs near 60 for the middle of next week on South Padre (National Tropical Weather Conference). Now the EC says lows near 70 and highs in the mid 80s. Much better. I won't need to pack a coat.

Looks like we (SE TX) may see some heavy thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon/evening. I suppose we need a little rain.

[NotSparta]

Well, I see that the EC has given up on the significant cold front for south Texas next week. 00Z Monday forecast was for lows in the upper 40s and highs near 60 for the middle of next week on South Padre (National Tropical Weather Conference). Now the EC says lows near 70 and highs in the mid 80s. Much better. I won't need to pack a coat.

Looks like we (SE TX) may see some heavy thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon/evening. I suppose we need a little rain.

Your power is working...

[Brent]

Virtually no rain on radar.

Seems like enough radar activity to give us plenty of rain to me.

the main event was never this early anyway for Dallas..*shrugs* always been more afternoon/evening

and then again tomorrow

[northjaxpro]

Interesting 228 hr GFS 12Z run. It shows a very stout 1040 mb Polar High dropping straight down into the Northern Plains. A potential Blue Norther for some of you in Texas in the next 7-10 days.

Hmmm.. Maybe you all may need to bring back that Texas Winter Thread after all....

[Ntxw]

0.63" so far at the airport today with more to come

[Haris]

Looks like Austin is gonna get some significant storms tonight per hrrr and other models . Wpc has us in the slight risk for excessive rain now too

[KatDaddy]

Flash Flood Watch just issued for much of SE TX including the Houston-Galveston areas:

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
201 PM CDT Tue Mar 27 2018

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>199-211-212-280315-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FF.A.0002.180328T0600Z-180329T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Austin-Brazos-Burleson-Grimes-Houston-Madison-Montgomery-Polk-
San Jacinto-Trinity-Walker-Waller-Washington-
Including the cities of Bellville, Brenham, Brookshire, Bryan,
Caldwell, Coldspring, College Station, Conroe, Corrigan,
Crockett, Groveton, Hempstead, Huntsville, Lake Somerville,
Livingston, Madisonville, Navasota, Onalaska, Prairie View,
Sealy, Shepherd, The Woodlands, Trinity, and Willis
201 PM CDT Tue Mar 27 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Houston/Galveston has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for a portion of southeast Texas...including
the following counties...Austin...Brazos...Burleson...Grimes...
Houston...Madison...Montgomery...Polk...San Jacinto...
Trinity...Walker...Waller and Washington.

* From 1 AM CDT Wednesday through late Wednesday night

* A band of showers and thunderstorms moving slowly southeastward
through the region. Heavy rainfall from training of storms could
lead to 1 to 3 inches with isolated totals of 4 to 5 inches. The
heaviest rainfall should fall between 3 am and 9 pm.


* Area small creeks will respond with rises from the heavy
rainfall and persons near these small creeks should monitor the
weather closely.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

[Brent]

40s and rain for Dallas Monday into Tuesday on the 12z euro its like winter all over again

[wxman57]

Interesting 228 hr GFS 12Z run. It shows a very stout 1040 mb Polar High dropping straight down into the Northern Plains. A potential Blue Norther for some of you in Texas in the next 7-10 days.

Hmmm.. Maybe you all may need to bring back that Texas Winter Thread after all....

Euro is backing off on its prediction of the cold air to plunge all the way to south TX next week. It stalls the cold air near northern Houston then backs the front up. Cool air for NE TX, though. Fortunately, I'll be in S. Padre next week where it should be nice and warm.

[weatherdude1108]

I'll be happy with an inch of rain. Hoping for more, but we'll see. Don't really want the large hail/damaging straight-line winds. I know hail has water in it, but, not much else it's good for except recording it and/or watching it on YouTube.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
256 PM CDT Tue Mar 27 2018

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...
Key Messages:
- Widespread showers and storms develop late tonight through
Wednesday morning.
-1-2 inches of rainfall appears likely along the I-35 corridor
counties as well as points east that are north of I-10. Localized
pockets up to 4 inches are possible.
- Despite the likelihood of localized heavy rainfall, widespread
flash flooding is currently not expected given the recent dry
conditions. However isolated pockets of flooding can`t be ruled
out, especially in areas prone to more rapid runoff such as urban
areas.
- Some storms tonight and Wednesday could become severe, containing
large hail and damaging straight-line winds.
- Conditional risk of strong to severe storms near and east of I-35
Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Early convective outflow boundaries and cool pool to the north have
pushed the weak surface boundary southeast to just south of a Llano
Fredericksburg to Del Rio line. The boundary per HRRR will slow
southward movement through the afternoon and early evening. Aircraft
soundings at SAT and AUS continue to indicate cap between 800-700mb,
although weakening since late this morning. Isolated streamer showers
will continue beneath the weakening cap through the afternoon. Can`t
rule out an isolated storm or two through early evening near the
aforementioned surface boundary and across Central Texas.

Bigger concerns to the forecast come tonight into Wednesday morning.
Convection is forecast to rapidly develop upstream across the higher
terrain in northern Coahuila by early evening in response to height
falls ahead of a strong ejecting shortwave impulse. The showers and
storms should expand in coverage as they cross into the southwest
CWA between 02Z-04Z near what`s left of the aforementioned boundary.
Deep layer shear vectors parallel to the boundary should allow the
convection to organize into clusters on the cool side of the
boundary, which in turn will help push the boundary southeast. Models
indicate increased divergence aloft as 110 kt 300mb jet streak noses
into the region, and deep omega values spreading northeast through
the area, and the convection could expand significantly in coverage
overnight to the northeast, becoming widespread through portions of
the eastern Hill Country, I-35 corridor, and portions of the Winter
Garden and Brush Country regions.

Upwards of 1500-2000 J/Kg of MUCAPE could still be present in
portions of the warm sector coinciding with bulk shear values of
60-70 kts. This will support a risk of severe storms with large hail
and damaging straight-line winds tonight. We have included this
mention in the grids and zones.

PWATs are progged to climb to around 1.4-1.7 inches tonight, near
record values for this time of year. Could be some pockets of
training given the evolution of storms expected above. 1-2 inches of
rainfall average appear likely along the I-35 corridor counties and
east of I-35 and north of I-10. Localized pockets up to 4 inches are
possible through this region, and indicated by GFS, Canadian, and
Texas Tech 4 km WRF. We have added locally heavy rainfall into the
forecast grids and zones. Given the recent drought conditions and
difficulty pinpointing exactly where the heavier pockets fall, we
will hold off on a Flash Flood Watch at this time. Nevertheless, some
localized areas of flooding could occur, especially in urban areas.

The thunderstorm evolution during the day on Wednesday and into
Wednesday evening afternoon remains difficult to pin down. It will
be highly dependent on how progressive and widespread showers and
storms are in the morning that potentially stabilize the atmosphere.
The Texas Tech WRF, which is the most robust with overnight and
early morning convection, does stabilize things across the region
mid morning through early afternoon. An uptick in convective
development is noted near and east of I-35 late Wednesday afternoon
by most global models, than NAM12, and Texas Tech WRF as conditions
de-stabilize ahead of the cold front and main forcing in the base of
the trough swings through. Should storms re-develop late Wednesday
afternoon, can`t rule out some of these storms being strong to
severe, producing hail and damaging straight-line winds, given the
steep mid level lapse rates and strong bulk shear values.
Precipitation should end west to east overnight into Thursday
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Drier air will shift into the region Thursday and Friday. A return
flow will setup Saturday and strengthen through the weekend, becoming
breezy at times and producing warmer temperatures and an eventual
return of clouds by Sunday. The ECMWF continues to indicate a
frontal passage Monday and disturbance aloft producing a chance for
precipitation. The GFS is farther north with the front but does show
a disturbance in the southwest flow aloft generating precipitation
over the region Monday, while the Canadian stalls the front over the
area. Confidence in the temperature and PoP forecast is currently
low at this time for Monday and will continue with 20 PoPs.

[rwfromkansas]

.56 IMBY and still raining so not too shabby. I was in error on main rain timing anyway. Hope Austin gets help.