WPAC: JELAWAT - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

Is a very large system that is bringing stronger winds to Guam than Palau/Yap got from Jelawat.






000
WHGM70 PGUM 270015
MWWGUM

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1015 AM CHST TUE MAR 27 2018

TRADE WINDS OVER THE MARIANAS HAVE STRENGTHENED IN RESPONSE TO
DISTANT TROPICAL DEPRESSION JELAWAT NORTH OF PALAU. STRONG WINDS
WILL ALSO CAUSE SEAS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY CHOPPY THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

PMZ151>154-270900-
/O.NEW.PGUM.SC.Y.0008.180327T0015Z-180328T0800Z/
GUAM COASTAL WATERS-ROTA COASTAL WATERS-TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-
SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
1015 AM CHST TUE MAR 27 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CHST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TIYAN HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY, WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CHST WEDNESDAY.

WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT
BUT INCREASE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ULTIMATELY
FALL BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVELS WEDNESDAY EVENING.

SEAS HAVE INCREASE TO BETWEEN 7 AND 10 FEET AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. STRONG LOCAL WINDS WILL MAINTAIN CHOPPY SEAS DUE TO A
LARGE WIND WAVE COMPONENT. SEAS WILL FINALLY FALL BELOW 10 FEET
WEDNESDAY EVENING AS WINDS DECREASE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WAVE CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID SAILING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

AYDLETT

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Hwrf see's a strong 115kts TY in this system.

https://imgur.com/3RFXqXn

[euro6208]

In line with the other models showing some steady intensification. This storm isn't done just yet.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (JELAWAT)
WARNING NR 11//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (JELAWAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 156 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF KOROR, PALAU, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE LLC REMAINS
FULLY EXPOSED AND APPEARS TO BE IN A QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) MOTION AS
THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE WELL-DEFINED LLC IN THE MSI LOOP WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS BASED ON CONGRUENT
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.0 FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT)
SOUTHERLY VWS. THE OFFSET CONVECTION IS BEING SUSTAINED BY GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SSTS (29C). SANS THE MOMENTARY QS MOTION,
TD 03W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TD 03W IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY
AS VWS RELAXES. AFTER TAU 12, THE CYCLONE WILL ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE STR AND TURN MORE NORTHWARD THEN NORTHEASTWARD. A MORE
FAVORABLE VWS AND INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL ALLOW MODEST
INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 50 KNOTS BY TAU 48. AFTERWARD, VWS IS
AGAIN EXPECTED TO INCREASE, TRIGGERING A WEAKENING PHASE.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD JELAWAT WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK
AND STEADILY DECAY AS VWS INCREASES AND SSTS BEGIN TO COOL. BY TAU
120, IT WILL BE REDUCED TO 30 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC
GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TRAJECTORY, THERE ARE
NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN ALONG-TRACK SPEEDS AMONG THE CONSENSUS
MEMBERS. IN VIEW OF THIS PLUS THE INITIAL QS MOTION OF THE SYSTEM,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 270913

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (JELAWAT)

B. 27/0830Z

C. 9.94N

D. 135.29E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.5/2.0/S0.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 70/PBO ANMTN. CONVECTION IS SHEARED >100NM.
THEREFORE, DT IS UNCLASSIFIABLE. MET AND PT YIELD A 1.0. DBO
CONSTRAINTS.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


LEMBKE

TXPQ22 KNES 270949
TCSWNP

A. 03W (JELAWAT)

B. 27/0830Z

C. 9.9N

D. 135.3E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.5/2.0/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. CLOUD FEATURES ARE NOT CLEAR CUT. IRR CDO MEASURING 1.0 DEG YIELDS
A DT OF 2.0. MET AND PT ARE 1.5. FT IS BASED ON MET.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RAMIREZ

[wxman57]

ASCAT does not indicate any TS winds in Jelawat. JMA is keeping it a TS (35kts), while JTWC downgraded it to a depression. JMA is the official RSMC, so it's still officially a tropical storm.

[1900hurricane]

I don't believe JTWC ever upgraded to a tropical storm to begin with.

[euro6208]

ASCAT does not indicate any TS winds in Jelawat. JMA is keeping it a TS (35kts), while JTWC downgraded it to a depression. JMA is the official RSMC, so it's still officially a tropical storm.

Agreed ASCAT never showed this becoming a TS at all and yeah JTWC never upgraded this.

[euro6208]

Forecast to become a typhoon again.

WDPN31 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (JELAWAT)
WARNING NR 13//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.

2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (JELAWAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 173 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF YAP, FSM, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER, WITH THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTH. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON CONVECTIVE BANDING IN A 271746Z SSMI 37 GHZ
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE PGTW
DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) SOUTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND POOR
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TD 03W IS TRACKING INTO A MORE FAVORABLE VWS
REGION.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TD 03W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A NORTHWARD TRACK AS IT ROUNDS
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 24, IT WILL BE
POLEWARD OF THE STR AND GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHEAST. THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT
48 HOURS, ALLOWING TD 03W TO INTENSIFY TO 65 KNOTS BY TAU 48.
BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72, VWS IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO INCREASE, AS TD 03W
NEARS THE SUBTROPICAL JET.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD JELAWAT WILL CONTINUE ITS NORTHEASTWARD
TRACK AND SLOW AS A RIDGE TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO INFLUENCE ITS
MOTION. THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD, THE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN IN A HIGH
VWS ENVIRONMENT AND STEADILY WEAKEN TO 30 KNOTS BY TAU 120. THROUGH
TAU 72, THE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. AFTER TAU 72,
THE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE RAPIDLY GROWS, WITH NAVGEM AND ECMWF
REPRESENTING THE TWO EXTREMES IN THE OVERALL SOLUTION. IN THE
NAVGEM MODEL, THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS NOT AS STRONG, ALLOWING TD
03W TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST AND UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION WHILE THE ECMWF BUILDS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH MORE
STRONGLY AND THE CYCLONE BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY. THE BULK OF THE
GUIDANCE ALIGNS MORE CLOSELY WITH ECMWF AND THE OFFICIAL JTWC
FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE LIKELY TRACK. REGARDING INTENSITY, THE
GUIDANCE IS LARGELY IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CYCLONE WILL INTENSIFY
THROUGH 48 TO 72 HOURS WITH THE HWRF CALLING FOR RAPID
INTENSIFICATION TO OVER 100 KNOTS BY TAU 48. OTHER GUIDANCE IS
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW THE HWRF AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
NEAR, BUT SLIGHTLY BELOW, THE CONSENSUS INTENSITY. DUE TO THE HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK AFTER TAU 72, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

03W JELAWAT 180328 0000 11.8N 135.6E WPAC 35 996

[euro6208]

TXPQ22 KNES 280352
TCSWNP

A. 03W (JELAWAT)

B. 28/0230Z

C. 12.8N

D. 135.4E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR DATA. DT
OF 3.0 IS BASED ON GT 1.5 DEG IRR CDO. MET AND PT ARE 3.0. FT IS BASED
ON MET.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RAMIREZ


TPPN10 PGTW 280255 COR

A. TROPICAL STORM 03W (JELAWAT)

B. 28/0230Z

C. 12.66N

D. 135.82E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .40 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS
2.5 DT. MET/PT 2.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


DAVIS

[1900hurricane]

One thing is for sure, Jelawat is certainly a tropical storm now.

[JoshwaDone]

One thing is for sure, Jelawat is certainly a tropical storm now.

beautiful wannabe typhoon which will be later

[StruThiO]

peaking at 90 kts.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 03W (JELAWAT)
WARNING NR 15//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 03W (JELAWAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 297 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP BANDING CONVECTION WRAPPING
INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON SATELLITE FIXES AND A BANDING FEATURE
OBSERVED IN AN 280506Z 37 GHZ GMI IMAGE WITH DEEPENING CONVECTION IN
THE LARGE BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM SEEN IN THE CORRESPONDING
89 GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS WHICH IS
BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM ALL
AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS EXCELLENT DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WITH
DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
FEEDING INTO THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLY JET. SSTS IN THE REGION ARE
ALSO VERY SUPPORTIVE ABOVE 28 CELSIUS. CURRENTLY TS 03W IS TRACKING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF WEAKENING MID TO LOW LEVEL
RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS A CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REFLECTING A
SLOWER TRACK AS A RESULT OF THE WEAKENING STEERING RIDGE AND A
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE TO THE PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS.
B. TS 03W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD AND SLOW ITS
FORWARD SPEED AS THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE WEAKENS. WARM SSTS WITH
MODERATE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT AND FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT RAPID DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. PEAK INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED TO REACH 90 KNOTS BY TAU 36. AROUND THIS TIME TS 03W WILL
SHIFT TO A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
STEERING RIDGE. DURING THIS TIME ANOTHER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP BRIEFLY
OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF JAPAN EXERTING SOME WESTWARD INFLUENCE ON
THE ADVANCING SYSTEM RESULTING IN A SLOWER NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. TS
03W WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING WIND SHEAR AS IT APPROACHES THE
SUBTROPICAL JET AND BEGIN WEAKENING AFTER TAU 36.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST TS 03W WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS WATER TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
COOL AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES. TS 03W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY TAU 120 AND DISSIPATE SOON AFTER, WHILE
OVER OPEN WATER. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SIGNIFICANT VARIATION
IN BOTH TRACK AND SPEED FOR BOTH THE SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
FORECASTS DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND BRIEF PERIOD OF
COMPETING STEERING. OVERALL THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
TRACK, BUT DESPITE THESE UNCERTAINTIES THE PRESENCE OF THE NORTHERN
RIDGE AND PERSISTENT WESTERLY JET WILL KEEP TS 03W FROM TRACKING
MUCH FURTHER NORTHWARD FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TXPQ22 KNES 280956
TCSWNP

A. 03W (JELAWAT)

B. 28/0830Z

C. 14.0N

D. 135.5E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T3.5/3.5/D1.0/12HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR DATA. DT
OF 3.5 IS BASED ON 0.8 BANDING AS SEEN IN THE 0859Z SSMIS PASS. MET IS
3.0 AND PT IS 3.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RAMIREZ

[euro6208]

Possible eye?

[euro6208]

EURO weakens this significantly after peak as it stalls it for 5 days.



GFS peak and stall.

[euro6208]

HWRF stronger.

[1900hurricane]

Looking good. Probably on its way to becoming the first typhoon of the year.