WPAC: INVEST 98W

[cycloneye]

Location: 4.2°N 160.0°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 mb

[euro6208]

The models have been showing this for days but no significant development forecast.

[euro6208]

Eastern Micronesia...
A circulation could be found on this afternoon`s satellite imagery
northwest of Pohnpei near 10N155E. Models agree on this circulation
drifting slowly northward and eventually dissipating by Monday.
Satellite imagery shows a monsoon wind pattern south of the
circulation. The west winds eventually meet the east trade winds
that are near Kosrae creating a large area of convergence. As this
weather pattern will persist for a few days scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms will continue to occur over Pohnpei
through Friday and over Kosrae through Thursday night. Lingering
convergence will produce mostly cloudy skies, isolated showers and
thunderstorms through Monday at both locations.

Majuro is too far east of the circulation, but this does not mean
they will miss out on any rain. An area of trade-wind convergence
will develop over the Marshall Islands and produce scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms at Majuro Friday through Saturday.

Western Micronesia...
Tropical Storm Jelawat has finally started to move north of the
western half of Micronesia. A rain band associated with Jelawat
developed over Yap and brought over two inches of rain to that area
this afternoon. This band should linger through much of the night
producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorm over Yap. This
rain band is producing gusty winds hazardous to small craft and the
Small Craft Advisory was extended through tonight. As Jelawat moves
away from the area drier air will settle over Yap and only isolated
showers are expected there Thursday through Monday. The dry air is
already over Palau and only isolated showers are predicted through
Monday. The early season monsoon pattern will persist through the
forecast with west to southwest winds at Palau and Yap tonight
through at least Monday.

Further east a circulation could be found northeast of Chuuk near
10N155E. Models agree on this circulation drifting slowly northward
and eventually dissipating by Monday. Low-level convergence south of
the circulation will produce isolated showers and thunderstorms over
Chuuk through the forecast. North to northeast winds are expected
at Chuuk tonight, but as the circulation moves further north this
area will come under a monsoon wind flow pattern. Expect west wind
tonight through Sunday becoming southwest by Monday. The circulation
is not expected to become strong and winds will be 10 knots tonight
increasing slightly to 10 to 15 knots by Friday.

[euro6208]

98W INVEST 180329 0600 11.8N 154.8E WPAC 15 1008

[StruThiO]

Mention by JTWC.

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.8N
153.9E, APPROXIMATELY 188 NM NORTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 300515Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE SHOW
AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DEVOID OF DEEP
CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW THAT 98P IS LOCATED IN A
FAVORABLE AREA WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND DUAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30
CELSIUS) IN THE REGION ARE SUPPORTIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS
DEPICT MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST INTO
LESS FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 72-96 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.8N 153.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 154.4E, APPROXIMATELY
248 NM NORTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 301745Z MHS 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT SCATTERED CONVECTION
AND A BROAD MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION WITH NO DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. A 301130Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS TROUGHING AND WEAK
5-10 KT WIND BARBS IN THE AREA OF 98W. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
THAT 98P IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE AREA WITH LOW TO MODERATE (5-15
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(28-30 CELSIUS). HOWEVER, INTENSIFICATION IS CURRENTLY LIMITED BY
MARGINAL DIVERGENCE ALOFT, WITH 98W UNABLE TO ESTABLISH POLEWARD
OUTFLOW DUE TO THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
FROM 03W TO ITS WEST. GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT AND
DISSOLUTION OF THE CIRCULATION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST
INTO LESS FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 72-96
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.1N 154.6E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.