Texas Spring 2018

[weatherdude1108]

Went from 82 to 66 on the drive home from work! Had a heavy rain.

[weatherdude1108]

Flash Flood Watch issued for the Austin and SA metros.

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
756 PM CDT Tue Mar 27 2018

...Multiple rounds of heavy rain could lead to localized flash
flooding through Wednesday evening...

TXZ172-173-189>194-205>209-221-223-225-280900-
/O.NEW.KEWX.FF.A.0001.180328T0300Z-180329T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Burnet-Williamson-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Bexar-
Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Wilson-Gonzales-Lavaca-
Including the cities of Burnet, Georgetown, Boerne, Blanco,
San Marcos, Austin, Bastrop, Giddings, San Antonio,
New Braunfels, Seguin, Lockhart, La Grange, Floresville,
Gonzales, and Halletsville
756 PM CDT Tue Mar 27 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Austin/San Antonio has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for a portion of south central Texas,
including the following areas, Bastrop, Bexar, Blanco, Burnet,
Caldwell, Comal, Fayette, Gonzales, Guadalupe, Hays, Kendall,
Lavaca, Lee, Travis, Williamson, and Wilson.

* Through Wednesday evening

* Showers and thunderstorms producing heavy rainfall which could
lead to flash flooding.

* Rainfall amounts: 1 to 3 inches with localized 5+ inches
possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

[vbhoutex]

Well, I see that the EC has given up on the significant cold front for south Texas next week. 00Z Monday forecast was for lows in the upper 40s and highs near 60 for the middle of next week on South Padre (National Tropical Weather Conference). Now the EC says lows near 70 and highs in the mid 80s. Much better. I won't need to pack a coat.

Looks like we (SE TX) may see some heavy thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon/evening. I suppose we need a little rain.

I hope I don't have to pack a coat!! Keep up the good work!!

[vbhoutex]

Latest from Jeff Lindner, especially concerning SE TX:
Flash Flood Watch issued by NWS for Wednesday across the region.

A strong upper level storm system and slow moving cold front will move into SE TX late tonight and slowly move across the region into early Thursday morning. Ingredients are coming together to produce a period of heavy rainfall on Wednesday into Wednesday evening with high moisture levels and potential for training storm cells. Main corridor of potential cell training will be along and south of the US 59 corridor Wednesday evening. Hourly rainfall rates may approach 1.5-2.0 inches which certainly can cause street flooding.

Widespread storm totals of 1-3 inches looks likely with isolated totals upward of 4-5 inches. HCFCD soil moisture sensor at Cypress Creek and Sharp Rd indicates fairly dry near surface soil conditions down to roughly 8 inches suggesting at least some of the incoming rainfall will be able to be absorbed into the dry top soil layers as long as rainfall rates due to greatly exceed infiltration rates. Additionally spring green up over the region will help to reduce surface run-off compared to similar rainfall amounts/rates in late February.

Overall main concern remains street flooding with high hourly rates especially under any areas of sustained cell training. While rises on creeks and bayous are likely, they should easily handle widespread 1-3 inches of rainfall and most will handle even 4-5 inches without any significant problems. Only concern would be if any sustained training develops that produces a rapid 3-4 inches in an hour of greater than 5 inches in a couple of hours which would result in maximum run-off conditions simply due to the amount of volume falling in such a short period of time.

Severe threat also remains with large hail and damaging winds possible Wednesday afternoon and an isolated tornado threat especially SE of US 59.

HCFCD will be monitoring the situation closely on Wednesday, but at this time will remain in normal operations.

[bubba hotep]

This cell looks to track through portions of DFW, if it holds together

[bubba hotep]

The latest HRRR brings a final batch of storms through DFW in the morning but it looks March might still end up just below normal precipitation wise. However, the 12z Euro gets April off to a wet start.

[Brent]

pretty lively storm here

in other news the 0z GFS is still far from the Euro on the Sunday/Monday forecast...the front never clears Dallas on the GFS although both solutions would have rain chances but the GFS is 20-30 degrees warmer than the 12z Euro. The CMC has gone to a warmer/drier solution.

[Ntxw]

1.7" so far at DFW airport. Mentioned above, the activity in SW Texas will move in by morning

[1900hurricane]

Had a decent WAA storm move through earlier. I'm also liking the look of how things are evolving to my southwest. I will be sleeping with the window cracked open tonight to hopefully let some rain noise in.

[JDawg512]

Getting all tingly and excited now. Tons of lightning moving in with this storm to the south. The Rain Miser is back!!!

[weatherdude1108]

Getting all tingly and excited now. Tons of lightning moving in with this storm to the south. The Rain Miser is back!!!

Thunder just woke me up. Huge area of rain/storms coming up from SA. Ok. Back to bed.

[JDawg512]

Some training is occurring right along the I35 corridor. I know this radar loop signal all too well.

[JDawg512]

Flood warning has been issued. Balcones Escarpment Uplift Effect in full swing.

[KatDaddy]

A Flash Flood Watch for SE TX will be in effect from 7AM this morning until 7AM Thursday morning. In addition, the SPC continues the slight risk area for S, S Central, E, and SE TX. An area of strong thunderstorms are moving into western portions of SE TX this morning. Currently it looks like the morning Houston-Galveston rush hour will not be effected much however it will likely be different this evening with flash flooding and strong to severe thunderstorms.

[weatherdude1108]

Almost three inches of rain since yesterday/or about 1am this morning (when thunder woke me). Been pretty steady. A little standing water in usual yard spots. Still raining, but looks like it will be moving east in a bit. 59 degrees!

[srainhoutx]

A quick update this morning on what we may see as the day progresses. The first batch of showers and thunderstorms have produced some flooding issues near San Antonio to Georgetown in S Central Texas early this morning. This batch of heavy rainfall has dropped about 3.5 inches in Grimes County and I expect this batch of rain and embedded storms to weaken some as it slowly creeps ESE this morning.

Inspecting Water Vapor Imagery and our High Resolution Rapid Refresh guidance including the Experimental HRRRX, a shortwave currently dropping S out of Southern California into the Baja looks to round the bottom of the base of our Upper Trough still well to our West in Arizona/New Mexico/Northern Mexico. The shorter range meso guidance is suggesting a rather robust mid/upper level jet streak to energize the atmosphere with additional lift. I am a bit concerned that for most of us in SE Texas, destabilization may begin rather quickly late this morning/early afternoon to our W and SW where some sunshine may occur. Some areas around our Region may see some sunshine which tends to further destabilize our atmosphere if that rain to our NW weakens this morning. The shortwave mentioned to our W and SW could be the "trigger" that fires off an impressive line of thunderstorms, some possibly severe this afternoon into tonight. The HRRR/HRRRX suites update hourly and there is a trend for a slow moving line of storms arriving near our afternoon/evening rush hour. We should get an update from the SPC at 13Z regarding the Convective Outlook and any potential Upgrade to an Enhanced Risk. Stay weather aware today as this will be a rapidly changing weather day into tonight and early tomorrow morning.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Picked up about 3" total since the rain started a few days ago. It looks like we get a little bit more today even though the main show has moved off to the east.

[1900hurricane]

The right moving cell west of San Antonio has a pretty decent hail core with it. Big ZDR and CC dropouts are observed behind the updraft on the KEWX radar. Hard to tell based on surface obs, but it might be surface based.

[weatherdude1108]

The right moving cell west of San Antonio has a pretty decent hail core with it. Big ZDR and CC dropouts are observed behind the updraft on the KEWX radar. Hard to tell based on surface obs, but it might be surface based.

My mom in north San Antonio texted they did not get any hail at their house.

[1900hurricane]

Not surprised, the core weakened considerably as it approached San Antonio. It also stayed more to the south side of the city, at least initially when it was a little stronger. Some places in Medina County probably did get some hail though.