WPAC: JELAWAT - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 290900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 03W (JELAWAT)
WARNING NR 19//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 03W (JELAWAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 379 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF YAP, FSM, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE LLC HAS BECOME OBSCURED BY THE
CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT HAS BECOME MORE SHALLOW AND ASYMMETRIC. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE FROM A LOW
REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 290428Z ATMS MICROWAVE IMAGE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY 0F 50 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT
OF AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE SLIGHT
DEGRADATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW
WITH MODERATE (15-20 KT) VWS. ALONG-TRACK AT 29C ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE.
THE SYSTEM IS QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) AS IT IS CURRENTLY LODGED IN THE
COL AREA BETWEEN THE STR TO THE EAST AND THE STR TO THE WEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 03W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE STR TO THE EAST WHICH WILL BECOME THE
PREDOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. WARM SSTS
WITH MODERATE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT AND INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW
INTO THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 75
KNOTS BY AT TAU 24-36. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS
WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM. BY TAU 72, CENTRAL WIND SPEED WILL
BE REDUCED TO 50 KNOTS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TS JELAWAT WILL SLIGHTLY ACCELERATE
ALONG THE SAME TRACK AND CONTINUE ITS DECAY AS STRONG VWS AND COOL
SSTS TAKE THEIR TOLL. BY TAU 120, THE CYCLONE WILL BE APPROACHING THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AT 35 KNOTS WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD. AVAILABLE
NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT; HOWEVER, NAVGEM AND
COAMPS-TC PREDICT HIGHER ACCELERATION AT THE LATER TAUS, SUGGESTING
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE FORECAST TRACK IS HEDGED SLOWER THAN
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. IN VIEW OF THIS AND THE INITIAL QS MOTION,
THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TXPQ22 KNES 290957
TCSWNP

A. 03W (JELAWAT)

B. 29/0830Z

C. 15.4N

D. 136.1E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T4.0/4.0/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. POSITION CONFIRMED BY 0847Z SSMIS WHICH SHOWS AN EYE FEATURE. CENTER
EMBEDDED IN MG YIELDS A DT OF 4.0. MET IS 4.0 AND PT IS 3.5. FT IS BASED
ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RAMIREZ

[euro6208]

Likely being underestimated.

[1900hurricane]

Here's the most recent microwave pass.

[euro6208]

[StruThiO]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 MAR 2018 Time : 154000 UTC
Lat : 15:22:21 N Lon : 136:41:45 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 991.0mb/ 55.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.5 3.9 5.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -38.3C Cloud Region Temp : -74.9C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 107km
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 18.6 degrees

[CyclonicFury]

Likely to be upgraded to the first typhoon of 2018 later today if current trends continue.

[cycloneye]

Eye is now clear.

@JMGarciaRivera
#Jelawat likely a #typhoon already as the eye is clearing out on IR imagery and Dvorak estimates from SAB and CIMSS support at least 65kts. In fact, a raw-T of 5.9 CIMSS may hint to a rapid intensification phase. We'll see if this tendency continues.

 https://twitter.com/JMGarciaRivera/status/979391942718099456

[StruThiO]

raw up to 6.1 now

looks like eye is warming per ADT

[NotoSans]

Latest microwave pass indicates that the eyewall is still incomplete and the eye has just disappeared in the latest EIR frame. Definitely a typhoon now though.

[NotoSans]

Both JMA and JTWC went with T4.0 at 18Z, which seem a bit low to me. JMA stuck with 60kt at last.

WTPQ20 RJTD 291800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1803 JELAWAT (1803)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 291800UTC 15.5N 136.8E FAIR
MOVE E 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 180NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 301800UTC 17.7N 139.6E 60NM 70%
MOVE NE 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 311800UTC 18.8N 141.3E 110NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 011800UTC 19.1N 143.0E 170NM 70%
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =

[euro6208]

03W JELAWAT 180329 1800 15.5N 136.8E WPAC 65 981

Upgraded to the first typhoon of 2018...

[euro6208]

20180329 1430 15.1 -136.5 T4.5/4.5 03W JELAWAT

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 292100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 03W (JELAWAT)
WARNING NR 021//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 03W (JELAWAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 368 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BUILDING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A
FORMATIVE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR LOOP AND A 1541Z
37GHZ GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS BASED ON
MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS)
AND REFLECTS THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY
THE SUB-TROPICAL WESTERLY JET. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE
SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS
TRACKING THROUGH WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
TYPHOON 03W IS TRACKING SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 03W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE STR TO THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL REMAIN THE
PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE THROUGH TAU 72. INITIALLY, A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW SHEAR AND WARM SSTS WILL ALLOW FOR A STEADY
INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 80 KNOTS BY TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24,
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR COUPLED WITH DECREASING SSTS WILL
CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24. HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 24
SOME CONSENSUS MEMBERS TURN THE STORM TRACK EASTWARD WHILE OTHERS
CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST. DUE TO THE BIFURCATION IN MODEL
GUIDANCE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TY JELAWAT WILL SLIGHTLY DECELERATE
DUE TO COMPETING STEERING BETWEEN THE STR TO THE SOUTHEAST AND A MID-
LATITUDE RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND COOLING SSTS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM FOR THE DURATION
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BY TAU 120, THE CYCLONE WILL BE APPROACHING
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AT 35 KNOTS INTENSITY. AVAILABLE NUMERIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY POOR AGREEMENT WITH TWO PRIMARY SCENARIOS.
NAVGEM AND COAMPS-TC ACCELERATE THE STORM TO THE NORTHEAST AND
BECOME EXTRA-TROPICAL. THE REMAINING CONSENSUS MEMBERS (GFS, ECMWF,
UKMET, JGSM, AND HWRF) DECELERATE THE SYSTEM AND TRACK TO THE EAST
WITH THE STORM WEAKENING UNDER UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS PRIOR TO
ENTERING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS HEDGED TOWARDS THE LATTER OF THE TWO
SCENARIOS. IN VIEW OF THE DISAGREEMENT IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AND THE
COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TXPQ22 KNES 292138
TCSWNP

A. 03W (JELAWAT)

B. 29/2030Z

C. 15.6N

D. 137.2E

E. ONE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR DATA. DG
EYE IS SURROUNDED BY W AND EMBEDDED IN LG, THIS RESULTS IN A EYE NUMBER
OF 5.0 AND EYE ADJ OF +0.5. DT IS 5.5. MET AND PT ARE 4.5. FT IS BASED
ON MET BECAUSE THE CLOUD FEATURES ARE NOT CLEAR CUT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...ZHU

TPPN10 PGTW 292132

A. TROPICAL STORM 03W (JELAWAT)

B. 29/2100Z

C. 15.67N

D. 137.24E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. LG EYE SURROUNDED BY B
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 5.5. MET YIELDS 5.0
AND PT YIELDS 4.5. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
29/1541Z 15.22N 136.67E GPMI


VEERKAMP

[euro6208]

Sunrise over Typhoon Jelawat.

[Kingarabian]

Wow a Typhoon this early...

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

https://imgur.com/KzC2103





台風

[euro6208]