Shell Mound wrote:For the purpose of discussion, I decided to quote two of wxman57's posts from another thread:wxman57 wrote:wxman57 wrote:
2017 was a warm AMO during the hurricane season except for July.
1 2017 -0.58
2 2017 0.08
3 2017 -0.61
4 2017 -0.81
5 2017 0.22
6 2017 0.06
7 2017 -0.89
8 2017 0
9 2017 0.31
10 2017 0.16
11 2017 0.39
12 2017 0.33
1 2018 -0.61
2 2018 -1.29
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?p=2671305#p2671305
Here's a comparison animation between March 26 of 2017 and current SSTs. Tremendous difference in the Tropical Pacific. Much cooler now than last March. Cooler in the MDR, too.
Some key points that I took from all this:
*The most recent +AMO was spikier than the last +AMO. For instance, there was greater year-to-year variation, and the peaks and valleys were sharper, which could account for the (possible?) early end to the most recent +AMO. Perhaps the intensity of this +AMO cycle, with its record-breaking warmth in 2010, can account for its premature demise, if indeed it is ending.
*Is it true that, all other factors being equal, tropical-Atlantic SSTs tend to warm more rapidly after a major SAL episode ends?
*The AMO was quite cool in early 2017, though not as cold as it is now. This reversed significantly in early summer, leading to an active season. Could such a reversal happen in 2018, too?
Interestingly, in many recent seasons, the Atlantic MDR SSTs have cooled rapidly in February and March to the Atlantic a -AMO look. This pattern occurred in 2012, 2015 and 2017, all of which changed to an above normal MDR by the peak of the season. I would not count on the Atlantic MDR being cold for the season though I do think it will be cooler than last year.