WPAC: JELAWAT - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 300633

A. TYPHOON 03W (JELAWAT)

B. 30/0530Z

C. 16.15N

D. 138.05E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T6.0/6.0/D3.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.5. ADDED 0.5 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
OF 7.0. MET YIELDS 5.0, AND AN ADJUSTMENT TO THE MET YIELDS
6.0. DBO PT. HAD TO BREAK CONSTRAINT OF LIMITING DEVELOPMENT OF
TO 2.5 OVER 24HRS DUE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
30/0410Z 16.02N 137.80E ATMS


LOWE

[euro6208]

Really sucks to rely on Dvorak on this kind of strong cyclone. I remember Irma got upgraded to a 5 when it had a classification of 6.0 which Jelawat is at now. Jelawat is much more impressive convection wise.

[StruThiO]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 MAR 2018 Time : 081000 UTC
Lat : 16:27:44 N Lon : 138:28:02 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 953.8mb/102.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.5 5.5 7.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 8 km

Center Temp : +0.5C Cloud Region Temp : -82.1C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 120km
- Environmental MSLP : 1006mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 19.5 degrees

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

115 looks good to me.

[euro6208]

Really exploded big time. Category 5!

TPPN10 PGTW 300923

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03W (JELAWAT)

B. 30/0900Z

C. 16.51N

D. 138.55E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T7.0/7.0/D3.5/24HRS STT: D1.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. DG EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.5. ADDED 0.5 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
OF 7.0. MET YIELDS 4.5 AN PT YIELDS 6.0. DUE TO INTENSE AND
RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST 12-24 HRS CONSTRAINTS WERE
BROKEN TO BE MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE CURRENT STATE OF THE
SYSTEM. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
30/0410Z 16.02N 137.80E ATMS


LOWE

[euro6208]

115 looks good to me.

SSD is not updating. Those images are old.

[StruThiO]

Such a different start from last season! WPAC just made my next few months interesting

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

03W JELAWAT 180330 0600 16.2N 138.1E WPAC 115 941

[doomhaMwx]

[StruThiO]

Wow.

[doomhaMwx]

JMA gave 80kts(10-min) 955mb @ 09Z.

[euro6208]

Looks to be 150 to 160 knots.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm
RSMC Initialized


Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 MAR 2018 Time : 101000 UTC
Lat : 16:34:46 N Lon : 138:40:33 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 943.3mb/102.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.5 5.6 7.1

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.3mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -8.3C Cloud Region Temp : -81.3C

-8.3 still not warm enough.. 115 -120 kts for me.

[doomhaMwx]

Impressive VIIRS satellite images of Typhoon Jelawat earlier today, as it was rapidly intensifying...

Day/Night DNB Imagery VIIRS
Enhanced Infrared (IR) VIIRS
03-30-2018 4:02am UTC

[euro6208]

03W JELAWAT 180330 1200 16.7N 139.0E WPAC 130 926

Cat 4 Super Typhoon Jelawat.

[euro6208]

[doomhaMwx]

JMA 12Z intensity estimate: 95kts(10-min), 935mb

TY 1803 (Jelawat)
Issued at 12:40 UTC, 30 March 2018

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 30 March>
Scale -
Intensity Very strong
Center position N16°50' (16.8°)
E139°00' (139.0°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 935 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (95 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (135 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 130 km (70 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area N 330 km (180 NM)
S 280 km (150 NM)

[StruThiO]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/979714373009723392

Looks to be 150 to 160 knots.

Maue seems to agree.

[1900hurricane]

The 130 kt peak intensity for Jelawat by JTWC actually looks to be in the acceptable range to me. DTs did climb as high as 7.5 at times, but based on some of my reanalysis on the stronger storms in the cold season, the DT may actually outplay the actual intensity. Alice '79 and Nelson '82 (images below, respectively) are the most notable examples. Despite instantaneous DTs that were pushing 8.0 at times, actual measured pressures were near 930 mb, and I ended up setting their peak intensities as upper end category 4 super typhoons thanks to KZC analysis based on their measured pressures.

[mrbagyo]

Clearly going downhill now.