WPAC: JELAWAT - Post-Tropical

[Alyono]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/979714373009723392

Looks to be 150 to 160 knots.

Maue seems to agree.

you can usually subtract 10-25% from the Maue estimates. He tends to have a high bias

[StruThiO]

you can usually subtract 10-25% from the Maue estimates. He tends to have a high bias

noted

[euro6208]

SSD is finally updating after its passed it rapid intensification phrase and weakening.

[1900hurricane]

Being sheared very badly now. Probably a precipitous intensity drop off from here.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 310300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 03W (JELAWAT) WARNING NR
026//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 03W (JELAWAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 356 NM NORTHWEST OF
ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
RAPIDLY DETERIORATING SYSTEM WITH A CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE BEING
SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION LARGELY DUE TO THE OVERCAST LAYER OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 302109Z 91GHZ SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS THE
APPROXIMATE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE WITH A WEAK CENTRAL CONVECTIVE
PLUME EXTENDING TO THE NORTH EAST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 105 KNOTS WHICH IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN MULTI-
AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES ALL REPORTING A CURRENT INTENSITY OF T6.0
(115 KNOTS) DUE TO THE DRASTIC CHANGE IN CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS AND A 302215 SATCON ESTIMATE OF 67 KNOTS. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG ZONAL JET JUST NORTH OF THE SYSTEM
THAT IS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
SSTS ARE SUPPORTIVE AROUND 27 CELSIUS, HOWEVER THE HOSTILE UPPER-
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL PREVENT ANY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. TY 03W
IS TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A DEEP-LAYERED
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 03W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD IN THE NEAR TERM
AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD ALONG THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE. VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS FURTHER POLEWARD, LEADING TO A
CONTINUED TREND OF RAPID WEAKENING AS THE CONVECTIVE MASS DECOUPLES
FROM THE LLCC. SSTS ALSO BEGIN TO DECLINE RAPIDLY POLEWARD OF 20
DEGREES NORTH FURTHER CONTRIBUTING TO THE WEAKENING TREND.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD TY 03W WILL SLOW ITS FORWARD MOTION AS
IT WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. TY 03 WILL FULLY DISSIPATE
OVER WATER BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
DIFFERING SOLUTIONS IN BOTH TRACK AND SPEED OVER THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HWRF, AFUM AND NAVGEM SHOW A FASTER TRACK WHILE GFS, ECMWF,
FAVOR A SLOWER SCENARIO SIMILAR TO THE FORECAST TRACK. DUE TO THESE
UNCERTAINTIES THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 310354
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON JELAWAT (03W) Advisory Number 26
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP032018
200 PM ChST Sat Mar 31 2018

...JELAWAT WEST OF THE NORTHERN CNMI AND WEAKENING...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for Agrihan in the Northern
Mariana Islands.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for Agrihan in the Northern
Mariana Islands.

A Tropical Storm Watch means tropical storm conditions including
damaging winds of 39 to 73 mph are possible within the next 36 to 48
hours.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
Location...18.6N 141.3E

About 290 miles west of Agrihan
About 295 miles west of Pagan
About 310 miles west-northwest of Alamagan
About 380 miles northwest of Saipan
About 425 miles north-northwest of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...120 mph
Present movement...northeast...55 degrees...at 14 mph.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...the center of Typhoon Jelawat was
located near latitude 18.6 degrees north and longitude 141.3 degrees
east...moving northeast at 14 mph. Jelawat is expected to continue
on a northeast track through Sunday morning, then gradually turn to
a more east track with decreasing forward speed Sunday night through
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 120 mph. This weakening
trend is anticipated to continue the next few days, possibly
reducing Jelawat to a tropical storm as early as Sunday.

Typhoon force winds extend outward up to 30 miles east of the
center, and up to 25 miles west of the center. Tropical storm force
winds extend outward up to 110 miles south of the center, and up to
90 miles north of the center.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 500 PM then follow by the next scheduled advisory at 800
PM this evening.

$$

Chan

[doomhaMwx]

More information and images related to SuperTyphoon Jelawat can be found at the CIMSS Satellite Blog.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/archives/27575

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 310900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 03W (JELAWAT) WARNING NR
027//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 03W (JELAWAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 256 NM WEST OF
AGRIHAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON 310406Z GMI IMAGERY AND
SATELLITE POSITION FIXES FROM MULTIPLE REPORTING AGENCIES. THE
INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF RECENT
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD, AND AUTOMATED
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS AND NESDIS. TY 03W IS
TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE SITUATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH A WESTERLY JET ALOFT. THE CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE IS BECOMING VERY
DISORGANIZED, WITH DEEP CONVECTION NOW CONFINED TO THE NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 03W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD ALONG
THE EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE THROUGH TAU 72. STEADY
WEAKENING WILL CONTINUE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES BENEATH A WESTERLY JET
AND BECOMES INCREASINGLY SHEARED. MOST NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS
PREDICT SLOWING FORWARD TRACK MOTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
THE LOW LEVEL CENTER DECOUPLES FROM THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION AND
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE RIDGE TO THE NORTH
EXERTS AN INCREASING, COMPETING INFLUENCE ON STORM MOTION. HOWEVER,
MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON THE TIMING AND DEGREE OF THE SLOWDOWN.
C. TY 03W IS EXPECTED TO FULLY DISSIPATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WEAKENS UNDER PERSISTENT VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. MODEL SPREAD REMAINS LARGE IN THE EXTENDED RANGE. THE CURRENT
JTWC TRACK FORECAST FAVORS MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICTING SLOWER FORWARD
TRACK SPEEDS, INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS, BASED ON THE
EXPECTED WEAKENING TREND AND DEVELOPMENT OF COMPETING STEERING FLOW
TO THE NORTH. GIVEN NOTED SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE, CONFIDENCE IN THE
TRACK FORECAST IS LOW.//
NNNN

[NotoSans]

As usual the agencies are struggling with systems weakening rapidly. Looks like a badly sheared tropical storm to me now rather than a typhoon.

[cycloneye]

JMA downgrades.

STS 1803 (Jelawat)
Issued at 18:50 UTC, 31 March 2018

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 31 March>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N19°00' (19.0°)
E143°00' (143.0°)
Direction and speed of movement E 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 70 km (40 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NE 390 km (210 NM)
SW 220 km (120 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 1 April>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N19°25' (19.4°)
E144°30' (144.5°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 1 April>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N19°05' (19.1°)
E145°55' (145.9°)
Direction and speed of movement E 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 2 April>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N19°30' (19.5°)
E148°40' (148.7°)
Direction and speed of movement E 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 3 April>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N19°40' (19.7°)
E151°30' (151.5°)
Direction and speed of movement E 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 310 km (170 NM)

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 312100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 03W (JELAWAT) WARNING
NR 029//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 03W (JELAWAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 306 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A
RAPIDLY DETERIORATING SYSTEM WITH CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE
NORTHEAST. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION DUE TO
AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT IN A 311018Z METOP-
B ASCAT IMAGE AND A 311602Z 88.2GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 50 KNOTS IS WELL BELOW MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES
SUPPORTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING A VERY
DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION AND A BROAD REGION OF 40-45
KNOTS, NOTING SEVERAL QUALITY FLAGGED 50 KT WIND BARBS AND A 311530Z
SATCON ESTIMATE OF 49 KNOTS. SSTS IN THE REGION ARE SUPPORTIVE
AROUND 27 CELSIUS. HOWEVER, UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXCEPTIONALLY
UNFAVORABLE AS TS 03W APPROACHES A STRONG WESTERLY JET ALOFT.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 03W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE DOMINANT MID TO LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW.
THE UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST OVER TS 03W MAINTAINING THE HOSTILE
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. A CONTINUED RAPID WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED
UNTIL TS 03W FULLY DISSIPATES OVER WATER BY TAU 48. EVIDENCE IS
SHOWING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION ELONGATING ON AN EAST-WEST AXIS.
THIS TREND IS EXPECTED CONTINUE IN THE COMING DAYS WHICH WILL HAVE A
NOTABLE AFFECT ON POSITION ACCURACY AND POSSIBLY SPUR MULTIPLE
VORTICES IN THE REGION. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS IN BOTH TRACK AND SPEED POSSIBLY RELATED TO EACH
POORLY RESOLVING THE WEAKENING TREND AND DISSOLUTION OF THE
VORTICITY SIGNATURE. DUE TO THESE UNCERTAINTIES THERE IS OVERALL LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 312112
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JELAWAT Advisory Number 29
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP032018
8 AM ChST Sun Apr 01 2018

...TYPHOON JELAWAT WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

Changes with this advisory
--------------------------
A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for Agrihan and
Pagan.

Watches and warnings
--------------------
A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for Agrihan and Pagan
in the Northern Mariana Islands.

A Tropical Storm Warning means tropical storm conditions including
damaging winds of 39 to 73 mph are expected within the next 24 hours
or are occurring.

Summary of 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...Information
----------------------------------------------
Location...18.7N 143.8E

About 125 miles west of Agrihan
About 135 miles west-northwest of Pagan
About 280 miles north-northwest of Saipan
About 280 miles north-northwest of Tinian
About 330 miles north-northwest of Rota
About 370 miles north of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...60 mph
Present movement...east...90 degrees at 10 mph

Discussion and outlook
----------------------
At 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Jelawat
was located near Latitude 18.7 North and Longitude 143.8 East.
Tropical Storm Jelawat is moving toward the east at
10 mph. It is expected to make a slight turn toward the east-
northeast with little change in forward speed over the next
24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 60 mph. Tropical Storm
Jelawat is forecast to weaken through tonight.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
115 miles.

Next advisory
-------------
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 1100 AM ChST followed by the next scheduled advisory
at 200 PM ChST.

$$

ZOBRO

000
WTPQ81 PGUM 312134
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM JELAWAT (03W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
900 AM CHST SUN APR 01 2018

...TYPHOON JELAWAT WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

.NEW INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN AND
PAGAN

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE ON AGRIHAN AND PAGAN IN THE COMMONWEALTH OF THE NORTHERN
MARIANAS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN AND PAGAN IN
THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JELAWAT WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 143.8 DEGREES
EAST. THIS IS

ABOUT 125 MILES WEST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT 135 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF PAGAN
ABOUT 280 MILES NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN

TROPICAL STORM JELAWAT IS MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
JELAWAT IS WEAKENING AND HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL
STORM...AND WILL PASS AROUND 25 MILES NORTH OF AGRIHAN LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT 300 PM CHST...OR SOONER
IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

...AGRIHAN AND PAGAN...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PEOPLE ON AGRIHAN AND PAGAN SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY SHOWERS. SMALL BOATS ON BOTH ISLANDS
SHOULD BE SECURED. AVOID INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL BY BOAT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

...WIND INFORMATION...
SOUTH WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH ON BOTH ISLANDS THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS ON AGRIHAN AND PAGAN WILL
REACH 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 TO 45 MPH NEAR SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY TONIGHT AS JELAWAT WEAKENS.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SURF OF 11 TO 13 FEET ALONG THE NORTH...WEST AND SOUTH FACING SHORES
ON BOTH ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...THEN BUILD TO BETWEEN 13 TO
15 FEET ON MONDAY. INUNDATION OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS LIKELY ALONG WINDWARD
COASTAL AREAS.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD PRODUCE UP TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN ON BOTH
ISLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT.

$$

ZIOBRO

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 010422
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JELAWAT (03W) Advisory Number 30
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP032018
221 PM ChST Sun Apr 01 2018

...TROPICAL STORM JELAWAT WEAKENING RAPIDLY...

Changes with this advisory
--------------------------
None.

Watches and warnings
--------------------
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Agrihan and Pagan
in the Northern Mariana Islands.

Summary of 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...Information
----------------------------------------------
Location...19.3N 145.5E

About 35 miles north-northwest of Agrihan
About 85 miles north-northwest of Pagan
About 115 miles north-northwest of Alamagan
About 200 miles north of Anatahan
About 290 miles north of Saipan
About 295 miles north of Tinian
About 360 miles north of Rota
About 405 miles north of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...45 mph
Present movement...east-northeast...70 degrees at 14 mph

Discussion and outlook
----------------------
At 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Jelawat
was located near Latitude 19.3 North and Longitude 145.5 East.
Tropical Storm Jelawat is moving toward the east-northeast at 14
mph. It is expected to make a slight turn toward the east with
little change in forward speed over the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 45 mph. Tropical Storm
Jelawat is forecast to continue this weakening trend through
Monday night, when it will likely be completely absorbed into
the mid-latitude boundary just north of the Marianas.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
190 miles on the north side of Jelawat and up to 125 miles on
the south side.

Next advisory
-------------
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 500 PM ChST followed by the next scheduled advisory at
800 PM ChST.

$$

Stanko

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 03W (JELAWAT) WARNING
NR 030//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 03W (JELAWAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 336 NM NORTH
OF ANDERSON AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION, WITH CONVECTION
BEING SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 40
KNOTS IS BASED ON OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES AND A
312341Z PARTIAL METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING A BROAD REGION OF 35 TO
40 KNOTS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE. SSTS IN THE REGION ARE SUPPORTIVE
AROUND 27 CELSIUS. HOWEVER, UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXCEPTIONALLY
UNFAVORABLE AS TS 03W APPROACHES A STRONG WESTERLY JET ALOFT.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 03W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE DOMINANT MID TO LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW.
THE UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST OVER TS 03W MAINTAINING THE HOSTILE
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. A CONTINUED RAPID WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED
UNTIL TS 03W FULLY DISSIPATES OVER WATER BY TAU 48. EVIDENCE IS
SHOWING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION ELONGATING ON AN EAST-WEST AXIS.
THIS TREND IS EXPECTED CONTINUE IN THE COMING DAYS WHICH WILL HAVE A
NOTABLE AFFECT ON POSITION ACCURACY AND POSSIBLY SPUR MULTIPLE
VORTICES IN THE REGION WITH ASSOCIATED HIGH WINDS AND SEAS. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS IN BOTH TRACK
AND SPEED POSSIBLY RELATED TO EACH POORLY RESOLVING THE WEAKENING
TREND AND DISSOLUTION OF THE VORTICITY SIGNATURE. DUE TO THESE
UNCERTAINTIES THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

HWRF did a great job on Jelawat intensity. EURO and GFS were not consistent.

[euro6208]

371
WTPQ31 PGUM 010904
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JELAWAT (03W) Advisory Number 31
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP032018
704 PM ChST Sun Apr 01 2018

...TROPICAL STORM JELAWAT ABSORBED INTO FRONT...

Changes with this advisory
--------------------------
None.

Watches and warnings
--------------------
None.

Summary of 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...Information
----------------------------------------------
Location...19.9N 146.5E

About 90 miles northeast of Agrihan
About 130 miles north-northeast of Pagan
About 335 miles north of Saipan
About 460 miles north-northeast of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...40 mph
Present movement...northeast...55 degrees at 12 mph

Discussion and outlook
----------------------
At 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...the remnants of Tropical Storm Jelawat
were located near Latitude 19.9 North and Longitude 146.5 East.
The remnants of Tropical Storm Jelawat were moving toward the
northeast at 12 mph. They are expected to make a turn toward the
east with little change in forward speed over the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 40 mph. The remnants of
Tropical Storm Jelawat will continue to weaken through Monday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles north of
the center. There are no damaging winds south of the center.

Next advisory
-------------
This will be the last advisory issued by the National Weather
Service on Tropical Storm Jelawat.

$$

Stanko

[wxman57]

[wxman57]

Note that JMA (official RSMC of the NW Pac) is still classifying Jelawat as a TS.

[cycloneye]

JMA released their last warning.