Florida Weather

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, it is just a bit too soon for our typical seabreeze interaction thunderstorms to routinely kick into gear. The pattern we are in currently is not conducive for significant rain yet with the mid latitude shortwaves constantly reinforcing the establishment of upper level troughs bringing northwesterly continental flow over the Eastern CONUS and the Florida peninsula. Any rain we see currently will move through quickly out ahead of these fast moving shortwaves and likely not be very significant in helping reduce the drought.

It looks like we will have another significant upper level trough across the Eastern CONUS for next week. The dry, cooler than normal pattern for April will definitely continue. The NAO was forecast to go neutral to slightly positive by mid-April. NAO still in negative phase. Looking still like we are in -AO at the early start of April. Looking like this month will hang on to this pattern for the most part. I really do not see in the long range right now of getting into our typical Bermuda ridge set-up to trigger our rainy season across the peninsula until we get into May. Hopefully by then, the pattern will see a return to the +NAO and the Bermuda ridge, and we can get some much needed rain return across the region soon.

[mlfreeman]

Yeah, it is just a bit too soon for our typical seabreeze interaction thunderstorms to routinely kick into gear.

I got a seabreeze shower that formed today and went from Orange Park over the river, over my head, and on eastward.
0.47 inches of rain dumped on me in 30 min, from 6:40 PM to 7:10 PM - a nice little rinse to get the last of the oak pollen out of everything around me.
Everything is *already* drying out though - once we really get into the summer, late rains like that usually don't dry out overnight at all.

UPDATE: As soon as I hit submit and walked away, I noticed that my lightning detector picked up two strikes today...does that mean I can call it a t-storm instead of just a shower?

[northjaxpro]

Yeah we did manage to get a broken line of thundershowers that moved northeast along the Gulf Coast seabreeze into portions of Northeast Florida late this afternoon into the early evening. There was just enough moisture in place for the seabreeze to interact with in bringing a little rain. However, only about 20% of the region saw a little rain. I tracked it on radar. It was a nice little sneak preview of what we expect for our summer season. However, this today is only a drop in the bucket unfortunately.

The overall pattern currently is not very conducive for significant widespread rainfall, which I went into detail about already in my earlier post. The upper level northwesterly flow courtesy of persistent upper level troughing over the Eastern CONUS is the chief reason. This pattern has been in place since the beginning of March. It really cuts off the return flow of moisture we routinely get from the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean. Our typical rainy season begins in earnest in May.

I live in Northern Duval County, , so I missed the action here today. Glad you got some rain. Any bit of rain helps, but we need days of steady rainfall to help relieve this drought. Again , hopefully we will get in our routine rainy pattern as we get into May.

We will see another quick round of showers tomorrow with another frontal boundary moving into the area. Forecast rain amounts generally averaging 1/4 to maybe 1/2 inch in most spots. Isolated areas may see a bit more rain, but heavier rainfall amounts exceeding over 1 inch or more are not anticipated.

Next chance of quick round of rain comes this weekend. Cooler and drier weather returns next week.

[Patrick99]

Today, we have a very light SSW flow and plenty of cumulus building inland......if this was late May or June, this would be a big storm day. Wonder if anything gets going as the sea breeze kicks in? NWS Miami only showing 20% chances, but a quick gaze out the window tells me that it has "that look" today.

[gatorcane]

Pretty heavy rain here in Boca Raton as storms develop along seabreeze. We desperately need it. Looks very summery out there that is for sure!

[Patrick99]

I haven't heard any thunder yet, but there was a sprinkle just now along the seabreeze front.

[northjaxpro]

Well, our cooler than average Spring across the region, with quick spurts of rain every 2-3 days, will continue for the foreseeable future. It dropped to 49 degrees this morning, and it was 45 Thursday morning. Temperatures will be 10-15 degrees below average for this time of the year in various intervals for the next week.

Progressive pattern with the persistent upper level trough maintaining over the Eastern CONUS, due to the -NAO, which has been in place since the beginning of March. It is keeping the humidity and heat from setting in across the peninsula for sure! We are experiencing a prolonged -NAO, but the saving grace is that it finally happened, but it is occuring during spring. How lucky we ended up again!! You can only imagine if this -NAO would have occured this past meterological winter. Remember how cold January was with just the +PNA, -AO set-up. I am rather sure we would have had potential record low temps if this -NAO had been in place 3 months ago!

The mid-latitude shortwaves moving through the upper level jet are providing quick spurts of rain every 2-3 days over North and Central Florida. We have another shortwave tomorrow moving through the Tennessee Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic region. This will bring rain to the area Saturday into early Sunday. The next shortwave will rapidly come in Monday into Monday night. Clearing and cooler mid week over the northern peninsula.

This pattern of continental northwestly flow simply cuts off our moisture source supply we get from the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean. Hence the drought concerns the peninsula is having currently. It is very difficult getting seabreeze induced thunderstorms the peninsula relies upon for rain when the GOM and Caribbean is shut off by drier and cooler continental upper air flow.

Have a wonderful weekend everyone!!

[northjaxpro]

Overcast, 56.3 degrees currently on my thermometer at my home weather station. Northeast wind between 10-15 mph.


Well, very unseasonably cool weather over all of North Florida today. Sharp temp gradient this hour, ranging from the upper 40s western Panhandle region to the mid 80s over areas of South Florida. This is not what the Jax Beach Chamber of Commerce folks wanted for the annual Springing the Blues Festival today. I am heading out there anyway with jacket in hand.

Cold front becoming stationary over the central peninsula by tonight and will lift north as a warm front overnight, bringing overrunning rains back to North and portions of Central Florida late tonight through early Tuesday. Cooler weather returns next week for North Florida.

[StormingB81]

I hope we get some much needed rain these next 2 days.

[Patrick99]

It isn't very pleasant out in South Florida right now. Temps are 85-86, but with fairly high humidity...half hour ago, NWS was showing 70% humidity and 74 degree dewpoints.......heat index of 93. Not quite summer, but just a shade below it.

[psyclone]

despite the calendar we remain very much under the influence of mid latitude features. the net effect will be rapidly changing weather conditions. it's hot and humid here right now with strong southwesterly winds..ahead of a potent cold front which will give us relief from the steamy conditions and (hopefully) some much needed rainfall. It looks like another episode of wet weather and a strong front will be on the docket by Sunday with a meaningful shot of cool weather...my NWS forecast is showing low 70's for highs next Monday...that would be about 10 degrees below normal. Another thing of note...the WPC 7 day QPF estimates have consistently shown potential for substantial rainfall totals over the state with the heaviest over the northern half of the state. while these 7 day estimates have a good deal of run to run variability, when they consistently depict heavy rain it frequently materializes. Lots to keep tabs on over the next week.

[gatorcane]

Palm Beach County metro areas received welcome rainfall yesterday in what looked like a very summer-like setup with partly to mostly sunny skies during the first half of the day with storms blowing up around 3-4pm as they neared the coast on SW flow and seabreeze collision with lightning and thunder also. The rain even caused localized flooding in my area in East Boca Raton. It had been pretty dry up until yesterday with most lawns burnt that were not being watered.

[TheStormExpert]

May even see another round of afternoon showers and some storms tomorrow afternoon ahead of a weak frontal boundary expected to move through tomorrow night. Starting to see that Quasi-Rainy Season we’ve seen the pst several Aprils.

[northjaxpro]

Thanks to a stationary frontal boundary over the north-central peninsula is the reason we are finally seeing heavy rainfall across the region. NWS Jax is reporting already 3-5 inches of rain down around Gainesville east to Palatka. The frontal boundary is bringing good convergence, leading to training rain cells currently to those areas.

Low Pressure wave will form off the Northeast Florida coast on Tuesday, bringing more rain over the region, then push the frontal boundary south down the peninsula later Tuesday. The rain will come to an end. from north to south by tomorrow evening .Great to see this rain. We have not seen significant rain totals over 1inch or more in this area since January.

As psyclone mentioned on his post above, the potential for more beneficial rainfall may come Sunday and into next Monday for the entire peninsula. The reliable models are latching onto the development of a very potent upper level trough sharply amplifying down across the Eastern CONUS and and a strong southwesterly upper jet could pump significant moisture over the peninsula from the Gulf of Mexico. This will have to be watched closely for possible severe storms over the region also as we get closer to this upcoming weekend.

The -NAO continues and that upper trough coming down by early next week is going to bring us some chilly weather here for mid-April. There is a potential of temps being as much as 15 degrees below average across North Florida. It will be below average even across portions of the central peninsula as well early next week.

[psyclone]

This line of storms over north florida is really impressive. they are building south slowly over time and are definitely a heavy rain/flood threat. radar will be worth watching tonight. as for next weekend I agree there will likely be some severe threat if we can get good dynamics this far south...usually a tall order this time of year but not this year with the persistent troughing we've had in the east lately.

[northjaxpro]

A wonderful sight for sore eyes!! Nice seeing the peninsula getting some good soaking rain this noon hour. Just over 2 inches have occured here at this juncture, with more to come this afternoon. This is by far the most rainfall received in many areas of North Florida in a 24-hour period since we have been in 2018, to this point in time. It has been very dry! This rain is truly a blessing for sure! Don't need the severe weather though of course.

Some areas from Gainesville east to Crescent Beach have seen rain totals ranging from 4-7 inches since last night, which prompted Flash Flood Warnings earlier. There was golf-ball sized hail down in St. Johns County earlier today as well. There will be several more reports of severe weather later today over Central Florida I am sure.

Hopefully, South Florida will get in on this action with the rain later today into this evening as the front finally moves south and southeast through the rest of the peninsula. Tomorrow will be sunny and pleasant, and very mild for mid-April with much less humidity over North and Central Florida. South Florida will still be dealing with the front in that region tomorrow with scattered showers and storms.

[Bocadude85]

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
344 PM EDT TUE APR 10 2018

FLC011-102000-
/O.CON.KMFL.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-180410T2000Z/
Broward FL-
344 PM EDT TUE APR 10 2018

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM EDT FOR EAST
CENTRAL BROWARD COUNTY...

At 344 PM EDT, a confirmed tornado was located over Downtown Fort
Lauderdale, or near Fort Lauderdale, and is nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is
likely.

This tornado will be near...
Fort Lauderdale around 350 PM EDT.
Hollywood and Port Everglades around 400 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Fort
Lauderdale Beach.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If a tornado or other severe weather is spotted, report it to the
National Weather Service or your local nearest law enforcement agency
who will send your report. This act may save lives of others in the
path of dangerous weather.

&&

LAT...LON 2610 8004 2609 8007 2609 8016 2613 8016
2618 8004
TIME...MOT...LOC 1944Z 287DEG 2KT 2611 8015

TORNADO...OBSERVED
HAIL...<.75IN

[gatorcane]

wow impressive storms and flooding rain today for Palm Beach and Broward even if this were in the middle of the rainy season...

Radar is really lighting up.

[StruThiO]

 https://twitter.com/NWSJacksonville/status/983821370932031488

[NDG]

We can't complain with the past few days having some very beneficial rains in central FL, the frontal boundary along with a strong MJO pulse passing through our part of the world definitely helped in what is usual one of the driest months of the year in this area.
Yet another good chance of rain coming up on Sunday.
Now watch May be a super dry month and the rainy season take a long time to start.