SPac: KENI - Post-Tropical

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

91P INVEST
As of 06:00 UTC Apr 05, 2018:

Location: 15.2°S 170.4°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 mb



All Global models are developing this invest atm.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN NUMBER EIGHTY THREE FOR FIJI ON HEAVY RAIN ISSUED FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE, NADI AT 9:30 AM ON FRIDAY 6TH APRIL 2018.

A HEAVY RAIN WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR WESTERN DIVISION, YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP, VANUA LEVU, TAVEUNI AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS, LOMAIVITI AND NORTHERN LAU GROUP.
A HEAVY RAIN ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF FIJI.

SITUATION:
AN ACTIVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WITH ASSOCIATED CLOUD AND RAIN REMAINS SLOW MOVING OVER FIJI.
MEANWHILE, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD13F [1002HPA] WAS ANALYSED TO THE FAR NORTHWEST OF FIJI AT 9 AM TODAY. IT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY SATURDAY
AND POSSIBLY INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES TOWARDS FIJI AND BRING ABOUT STRONG TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER THE GROUP.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

ABPW10 PGTW 051930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/051930Z-060600ZAPR2018//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR H B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.2S 170.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.5S 170.5E, APPROXIMATELY
450 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
IMAGERY AND A 151558Z 91GHZ SSMI/S MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE SHOW A
BETTER DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DISORGANIZED,
FLARING CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN ARC OF THE
SYSTEM. THERE IS MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, WITH POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ENABLING STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT OFFSET BY MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM (28-29C)
IN THE SOUTHWEST PACIFIC AND WILL SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR 91P REACHING TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH AROUND TAU 36-60, BUT VARY GREATLY ON TRACK
SOLUTIONS. GFS IS CALLING FOR 91P TO STAY QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE
SOLOMON ISLANDS, WHILE OTHERS SEND THE STORM EAST AT DIFFERENT
SPEEDS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO
MEDIUM//
NNNN

EC
http://www.weather.geek.nz/nzaus_model_player.php


GFS
http://www.weather.geek.nz/tropics_model_player.php


Global NWP Model Data
http://www.weather.geek.nz/global_model.php

Tropical Cyclone Genesis Watch
http://www.weather.geek.nz/tropical_cyc ... _watch.php

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Equator to 25S and 160E to 120W
Issue Time: 0400 UTC Friday 06
th April 2018
Next Issue: 0400 UTC Saturday 07
th April 2018
Issued By: Tropical Cyclone Centre, RSMC, Nadi.
Existing Tropical Cyclones: Nil
A Tropical Depression TD13F [1000HPa] was analysed near 15.0S 170.0E at 3pm Today.
TD13F remains slow moving.

http://www.met.gov.fj/tc_outlook.pdf

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert WTPS21
Issued at 07/0200Z

https://i.imgur.com/yFkHiEa.png
GFS passing just off the sw of fiji on the run.
https://app.metoceanview.com/forecast/

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

GALE WARNING 024 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 081858 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE KENI CENTRE 994HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2
SOUTH 170.5 EAST AT 081800 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 16.2S 170.5E AT 081800 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 04 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
60 KNOTS BY 091800 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 16.4S 172.4E AT 090600 UTC

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm
RSMC Initialized


Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 APR 2018 Time : 214000 UTC
Lat : 15:57:11 S Lon : 170:51:14 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 986.0mb/ 53.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.4 3.4 3.8

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.6mb

Center Temp : -79.3C Cloud Region Temp : -76.2C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 39.2 degrees

Decent gap in intensity between agencies ADT.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

FQPS01 NFFN 090600
MARINE WEATHER BULLETIN FOR ISLANDS AREA
EQUATOR TO 25S BETWEEN 160E AND 120W.
ISSUED BY FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE EQUATOR to 25S between 160E and
120W
issued by Fiji Meteorological Service Apr 090800 UTC.

PART 1 : WARNINGSTORM WARNING 026 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 090734
UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE KENI CENTRE 986HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9
SOUTH 172.5 EAST AT 090600 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 16.9S 172.5E AT 090600 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 12 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 55 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
60 KNOTS BY 100600 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 070 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT

AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT

AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT

AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 18.0S 175.1E AT 091800 UTC
AND NEAR 19.9S 178.4E AT 100600 UTC.

[euro6208]

WTPS31 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (KENI) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 17.2S 172.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 172.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 18.4S 175.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 20.3S 178.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 23.9S 177.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 32 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 29.0S 173.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 285 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 38 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 43.3S 166.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 305 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 17.5S 173.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (KENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 248 NM EAST OF
PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE
CONSOLIDATED AS CONVECTIVE BANDS COALESCED AND WRAPPED INTO AN
OBSCURED LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED DOWNSTREAM FROM A
LOW REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 090315Z SSMI 37 GHZ PASS
AND JUST SOUTHEASTWARD OF AN OVERSHOOTING DIMPLE FEATURE IN THE
090600Z VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND REFLECTS THE
IMPROVED STATE OF THE CYCLONE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 19P
IS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) SOUTHWESTERLY VWS
THAT IS MOSTLY OFFSET BY EXCELLENT DUAL OUTFLOW. ALONG-TRACK SSTS AT
30C ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE. TC KENI IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE NER TO THE NORTHEAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED OVERALL
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE NEAR TERM AND FUEL GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION UP TO 70 KNOTS BY TAU 24. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS
AND COOLING SSTS WILL STEADILY ERODE THE CYCLONE. BY TAU 36, TC 19P
WILL ACCELERATE INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND COMMENCE EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION. BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO A STRONG
GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z
IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z.//
NNNN

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Special Weather Bulletin Number NINETEEN for Fiji ON SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE
KENI
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI at 11:41am on Tuesday the 10th of April 2018

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR WHOLE OF FIJI.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR SOUTHWEST VITI LEVU, FROM SIGATOKA TO
NAVUA, VATULELE, BEQA, KADAVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS , MOALA, TOTOYA,
MATUKU AND ONO-I-LAU.

A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF VITI LEVU, YASAWA GROUP,
LOMAIVITI GROUP AND THE REST OF SOUTHERN LAU.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR VANUA LEVU. TAVEUNI AND NEARBY SMALLER
ISLANDS AND NORTHERN LAU GROUP.

A HEAVY RAIN WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE WHOLE OF FIJI.

A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PARTS OF FIJI. For more information, refer
to the latest Special Weather Bulletin on Flood issued by RSMC, Nadi at
http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/20016.txt

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE KENI CENTRE 970HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4
SOUTH 176.7 EAST OR ABOUT 175 KILOMETRES EAST OF NADI AND 140 KILOMETRES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF VIWA AT 10:00 am. CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED
TO HAVE AVERAGE WINDS UP TO 130 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 185 KM/HR. SEVERE
TROPICAL CYCLONE KENI MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 36 KM/HR.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS AND POSSIBLY PASS
JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF KADAVU AT ABOUT 3 PM TODAY. MEANWHILE, RAIN BANDS
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE KENI CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE GROUP.

ON THIS TRACK, THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ABOUT 30 KILOMETRES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADAVU AT 04:00PM TODAY, AND ABOUT 110 KILOMETRES WEST OF
ONO-I-LAU, OR ABOUT 330KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SUVA AT 10 PM TONIGHT. IT IS THEN
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARDS AWAY FROM THE GROUP.

FOR SOUTHWEST VITI LEVU, FROM SIGATOKA TO NAVUA, GROUP, VATULELE, BEQA, KADAVU
AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS , MOALA, TOTOYA, MATUKU AND ONO-I-LAU:
VERY DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEED OF 130KM/HR AND
MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 185KM/HR . PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS.
FLOODING, INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.
DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS WITH STORM SURGE OF MORE THAN 3 METERS COULD BE EXPECTED
OVER COASTAL AREAS.

FOR REST OF VITI LEVU, YASAWA GROUP, LOMAIVITI GROUP AND THE REST OF SOUTHERN
LAU:
DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEED OF 100KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUSTS
TO 140KM/HR. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS.
FLOODING, INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.
DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS WITH STORM SURGE OF MORE THAN 2 METERS COULD BE EXPECTED
OVER COASTAL AREAS.

FOR VANUA LEVU. TAVEUNI AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS, NORTHERN LAU GROUP:
DAMAGING GALE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEED OF 80KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO
110KM/HR.
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS.
FLOODING, INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.
DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS EXPECTED.

The following information is provided especially for the mariners:
HURRICANE WARNING.
TROPICAL CYCLONE KENI CENTRE 970HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4 SOUTH 176.7
EAST AT 092200 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 18.4S 176.7E at 092200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 20 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 20.6S 179.8W AT 101000 UTC
AND NEAR 24.2S 175.9W AT 102200 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR FIJI ON TROPICAL CYCLONE KENI WILL BE
ISSUED AROUND 02:00 PM TODAY OR EARLIER.

https://imgur.com/OhcxuxL

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/fijico ... ed_fij.gif


https://imgur.com/kuQH3JJ

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

looked robust as it slipped pass.

[euro6208]

Seems like my google earth is down. What is that island and how populated it is?

[euro6208]

JTWC gives it 85 knots but that radar and microwave looks more like a major cyclone 100+ knots 1 min.

[wxman57]

I see CIMSS has Keni at Dvorak 5.0 and 90 kts for 2352Z (same time as image below). JTWC says 85kts as of 3 hrs before the sat pic below. Fiji has 70 kts 10-mi wind. I don't see how it qualifies for Dvorak 3.5 much less 5. Can't imagine winds are over 50 kts now, stripped of all convection.